osfan24 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: You are 100% correct. 24 hours ago the nam was off on a tangent. It wasn't even close. Well it was out of its generally useful range at that point, but it still was never as cold as the other models. Like one of the mets on here said, sometimes it can throw up red flags with temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: Wait what? The NAM has been showing, consistently since the first run at range, that the Sleet line will be well into Maryland very early. The Euro, GFS, etc have shown on the other hand have been, even as early as yesterday, putting out sleet lines in Virginia and dropping 8+" of snow region wide. Don't even get me started at what the Euro and GFS were saying when the NAM was "at range". The NAM has been great IMO, it was great on other storms and in this case, it looks like models are caving towards the NAM here as well. NAM was terrible with the ice storm. Let’s see what the models have to say today... still over 18 hours from the event with plenty of divergence from models. Not sure we can make definitive statements about how this storm will turn out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Its obviously at range but the HRRR is a weenie run...6" for a lot of us by noon. Hopefully its not just playing catch up 7+ for CHO and about 6" for DC according to Kuchera through 30 on the long range HRRR... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Not to interrupt the NAM debate, but long range HRRR is pretty fookin’ sweet. Long range HRRR yadda yadda caveat...but if people were looking for something positive, there it is. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Well it was out of its generally useful range at that point, but it still was never as cold as the other models. Like one of the mets on here said, sometimes it can throw up red flags with temperatures. I see temps between 25-28 for the duration of the storm in dc-Balt on the 06z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I know it's at range but I actually think the HRRR is showing something that's... likely? Possible at least? Going to be a lot of flipping and weird pockets of cold/warm air at 700. It just feels like that kind of storm where there will be sleet bombs in some areas while others not far away hang onto to much more snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: Wait what? The NAM has been showing, consistently since the first run at range, that the Sleet line will be well into Maryland very early. The Euro, GFS, etc have shown on the other hand have been, even as early as yesterday, putting out sleet lines in Virginia and dropping 8+" of snow region wide. Don't even get me started at what the Euro and GFS were saying when the NAM was "at range". The NAM has been great IMO, it was great on other storms and in this case, it looks like models are caving towards the NAM here as well. Post mortems before the storm is over are weird, but I’ll say this. The NAM held onto the OH valley primary idea way longer then other guidance. That’s a big part of that reason it was showing so much more mixing than the globals in the last 48hrs. That certainly looks like it’s going to be wrong. Now there seems to be decent agreement with the mesos and the globals on track and the slight differences are due to location and strength of the warm layer aloft. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, chris21 said: NAM was terrible with the ice storm. Let’s see what the models have to say today... still over 18 hours from the event with plenty of divergence from models. Not sure we can make definitive statements about how this storm will turn out yet. This thread is probably not the place to discuss the NAMs performance on the ice storm but I'll just say that I thought it did well there too, it had the right temperature profile for a lot of Maryland. I think that's where the NAM has been a godsend this season. It's gotten the sleet line correct on the other 2-3 whiffs we've had this year due to the transition to sleet early in the storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Not to interrupt the NAM debate, but long range HRRR is pretty fookin’ sweet. Long range HRRR yadda yadda caveat...but if people were looking for something positive, there it is. It's all about that initial slug of WAA. That's the snow. HRRRRRRRR directs it right into the metros, some take it north, some take it south. Our accumulating snow chances are between 4am-10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Post mortems before the storm is over are weird, but I’ll say this. The NAM held onto the OH valley primary idea way longer then other guidance. That’s a big part of that reason it was showing so much more mixing than the globals in the last 48hrs. That certainly looks like it’s going to be wrong. Now there seems to be decent agreement with the mesos and the globals on track and the slight differences are due to location and strength of the warm layer aloft. but @dailylurker already said the NAM was right? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 One other thing that I'd cheer for that the models are showing... getting at least partially dry slotted after snow/sleet moves through. Please keep the big icing away, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, chris21 said: I see temps between 25-28 for the duration of the storm in dc-Balt on the 06z NAM It's the mid-level temperatures, 700-mb in particular, that the NAM has consistently shown as warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: It's all about that initial slug of WAA. That's the snow. HRRRRRRRR directs it right into the metros, some take it north, some take it south. Our accumulating snow chances are between 4am-10am. Yep, we get the heavies in the morning and cash in while the column is cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts