yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 324 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 VAZ026-029-038>040-050-051-507-171630- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0500Z-210219T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0007.210218T0500Z-210219T1100Z/ Rockingham-Page-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- 324 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to three tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest and western Virginia. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 324 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 VAZ025-036-037-504-508-171630- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0200Z-210219T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0007.210218T0200Z-210219T0600Z/ Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Eastern Highland- Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 324 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 3 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of two tenths to four tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Augusta, Nelson, Albemarle and Eastern Highland Counties, and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Para has the two wave idea also... but its NICE with wave 2...gets good snow into DC with that even. This is becoming more complicated, but there is a path to a big win here if we can stick both waves. Para was the first model to hint at some additional action on the backside. I noticed it several runs ago- during the brief time when WB offered it lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Somewhat interesting discussion from Mount Holly. Nothing earth shattering, and pretty much agrees with my assessment that the front end is everything here.. Changes...Guidance overall has shifting southward some with the surface low track and therefore is colder. Given enough consensus, shifted some higher snowfall amounts farther south and east. If this colder trend holds, then there may be less freezing rain and just snow/sleet. Still maintained a zone of freezing rain however late Thursday afternoon and evening. Despite some increase in the snow/sleet totals south and eastward some, no changes were made to the Winter Storm Watch. In addition, after collaborating with our neighboring offices we opted to remain with the Watch at this point with no upgrades just yet. Expect all snow at the onset over most of the area due to the cold/dry airmass and the enhanced lift/dynamic cooling in the frontogenesis zone. Given a robust 850-700 MB jet, would expect that we will start to see a transition to sleet from south to north Thursday afternoon. How fast this warm layer aloft progresses north is still a question as guidance continues to wrestle with this. The 00z NAM and some other guidance is a little colder and trended south some with the surface low track. The forecast soundings, especially from the NAM show a decent sleet potential into portions of the I-95 corridor later Thursday afternoon and evening. We continued with a blended approach which gets sleet mixing in across the I-95 corridor. Since the consensus was a little colder, did not bring the mixed precipitation as far northwest as previously. The warm layer aloft may not be well pronounced which may result in more snow, although lighter precipitation intensity could tip that more toward some sleet. Snow and ice amounts...Total were increased some a bit farther south and east based colder trend. The thinking is that a zone of quick accumulations (rates up to 1 inch per hour) occurs with the initial burst but totals then will likely be cut down by mixing later in the event. As of now, the timeframe from about 6 AM to 2 PM Thursday looks to feature heavier snow intensities and when the road conditions should tend to deteriorate quickly. Over the New Jersey coastal plain and southern Delmarva, amounts will be highly dependent upon how well the dynamic cooling with the initial precipitation overcomes the encroaching warm layer aloft. Generally expect 1-3 inches at this time, but amounts further northwest in this zone could get 3-5 inches if the progression continues slightly south. Regarding ice amounts, confidence is rather low at this time, stemming from uncertainty in the positioning of the freezing rain/sleet transition zone. But currently have some areas in the vicinity of I-95 with up to a tenth of an inch of ice Thursday evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 WB 6Z PARA, let’s see if it is the new King...,oops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6z NAM and GFS are a bit north of their previous runs. Not a good move for those of us living on the southern/eastern edge. Really need to see continued slight adjustments south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z PARA, let’s see if it is the new King..., Dude.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 @Weather Will those are 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Outside of that crazy para run the overnight runs including 6z’s seemed like a step back to me in terms of snow and the initial thump and a quicker transition to sleet. Hopefully they go towards a little more snowier solution at 12z here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Will has gone off the rails LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 WB 6Z NAM 3K NAM, unfortunately a step backward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Will has gone off the rails LOL Sorry about that!!! Wishful thinking I guess!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Outside of that crazy para run the overnight runs including 6z’s seemed like a step back to me in terms of snow and the initial thump and a quicker transition to sleet. Hopefully they go towards a little more snowier solution at 12z here Isn't the north trend as we approach game time a universally accepted weenie rule? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Gonna be really sad if we get in the middle of the two slugs of precipitation again. Not that I should be surprised, but just seems to be a crazy thing around here! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Gonna be really sad if we get in the middle of the two slugs of precipitation again. Not that I should be surprised, but just seems to be a crazy thing around here! Lets hope the 12k nam is right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
300 square feet Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 CWG holding steady with their forecast of 2-4 in the immediate metro area. Seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 33 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Outside of that crazy para run the overnight runs including 6z’s seemed like a step back to me in terms of snow and the initial thump and a quicker transition to sleet. Hopefully they go towards a little more snowier solution at 12z here 00z Euro was better for snow over the dc-Balt area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Getting NAM’ed sure ain’t what it used to be 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 updated snow map included from LWX 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 But the situation does favor us. High in the right place, western low some problem but not strong nor too far north, then coastal and by now it’s a drawn out event thru Friday. Highs 25-30 Favor yes 1-4 snow from Rockville south and east then we have ice . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 23.5/11.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 23/13 Purcellville. Hoping for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 At least it’ll be cold leading into this one and temps should stay below 30 for most of us. That’s a nice change of pace to most of our storms of late. My bar is 2” with an absolute sleet bomb following. With a nice ice incased landscape 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 00z euro still looked good, my bar here is 2-4, which if it accumulated nicely in a few hours on roads would be my best event of the winter by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 My bar here is either 4'' of snow or a bit of snow with around 3'' of sleet and maybe with a freezing rain coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: My bar here is either 4'' of snow or a bit of snow with around 3'' of sleet and maybe with a freezing rain coating. That seems reasonable. 3 inches of sleet is a lot and can’t even fathom it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 WB 6Z EURO 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I find the NAM 3k to be whacky with its isolation of precip totals. Some here, some there. Lollis that don’t ever really happen. It may have uses but I don’t think precip totals are it’s specialty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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