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February 18/19th Storm Potential


stormtracker
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Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, Ji said:
Yikes

Seems just really dry since not much sleet

It's about on par if not a tiny bit wetter than 18z. I think this illustrates where that precip is going a bit better. Kuchera is being pretty funky, and since it's likely not gonna be 10:1, it's a good compromise to just extrapolate the snow precip side of the panel to ratios slightly lower than 10:1.

ecmwf-deterministic-dc-total_precip_ptype_fourpanel-3718000.thumb.png.cec08a7c447a4b68b99cf8932d01b255.png

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Just now, Ji said:
1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:
hope you didn't promise the teachers too much snow.
Pretty similar run overall, as others said maybe a step towards the longer storm the CMC/RGEM show. I'd take it but my expectations are slightly higher, not gonna lie.

I said 5-8 but that Euro map is awful

Might get detention. 

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

probably should wait until the end of the storm before dissecting maps....That's at 51 hours...It precipitates for another 20

fair enough, but the extra 1" over 20 hours in DC doesn't make me jump with joy, especially since I'm down there in CHO. It does make the map look nicer though and gets JI closer to not having Loudoun County single moms and teachers burning a Ji effigy 

1613768400-dslhG3IPXp8.png

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@Ji this one looks better...

better.thumb.png.8289a4a5624c9c1a455dbf3d829bb57a.png

In all seriousness the Kuchera maps are being REALLY conservative.  And yes I know with warm layers and mixing ratios will be low.  But even in times and places where every level is below freezing its using crazy low ratios.  Maybe it uses thicknesses as part of the equation and since this storm has some unusually high heights that could be throwing it off.  I think maybe 10-1 maps could be better here.  

 

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[mention=514]Ji[/mention] this one looks better...
better.thumb.png.8289a4a5624c9c1a455dbf3d829bb57a.png
In all seriousness the Kuchera maps are being REALLY conservative.  And yes I know with warm layers and mixing ratios will be low.  But even in times and places where every level is below freezing its using crazy low ratios.  Maybe it uses thicknesses as part of the equation and since this storm has some unusually high heights that could be throwing it off.  I think maybe 10-1 maps could be better here.  
 
Thanks for giving me 3 inches back. This shouldn't be that difficult to accumulate unless the rates are low since surface is torching at 26
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Just now, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
[mention=514]Ji[/mention] this one looks better...
better.thumb.png.8289a4a5624c9c1a455dbf3d829bb57a.png
In all seriousness the Kuchera maps are being REALLY conservative.  And yes I know with warm layers and mixing ratios will be low.  But even in times and places where every level is below freezing its using crazy low ratios.  Maybe it uses thicknesses as part of the equation and since this storm has some unusually high heights that could be throwing it off.  I think maybe 10-1 maps could be better here.  
 

Thanks for giving me 3 inches back. This shouldn't be that difficult to accumulate unless the rates are low since surface is torching at 26

I still like my 4-8" call for Loudon County.  

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji this one looks better...

better.thumb.png.8289a4a5624c9c1a455dbf3d829bb57a.png

In all seriousness the Kuchera maps are being REALLY conservative.  And yes I know with warm layers and mixing ratios will be low.  But even in times and places where every level is below freezing its using crazy low ratios.  Maybe it uses thicknesses as part of the equation and since this storm has some unusually high heights that could be throwing it off.  I think maybe 10-1 maps could be better here.  

 

Normally I’d pessimistically stomp and moan against this but given that temps aren’t an issue on the ground (I hope...) this time, kuchera might be too conservative. However I do think that in a lot of cases kuchera can be a clown map still. 

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1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Normally I’d pessimistically stomp and moan against this but given that temps aren’t an issue on the ground (I hope...) this time, kuchera might be too conservative. However I do think that in a lot of cases kuchera can be a clown map still. 

Just like everything else it depends on the situation.  In my experience the Kuchera maps seem to depend way too much on heights and thicknesses.  In scenarios where its cold aloft and the surface is warm its way too liberal with snow totals.  In scenarios where the surface is cold but its warm aloft is can run too low so long as the warm layer is isothermal and stays below freezing.  

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
324 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

VAZ056-171630-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0800Z-210219T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0007.210218T0800Z-210219T1100Z/
Spotsylvania-
324 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of three
  tenths to four tenths of an inch.

* WHERE...Spotsylvania County.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning and evening commute.
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