SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: It's wetter than the previous run.. Yeah but drier than other guidance, he might be saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Yeah but drier than other guidance, he might be saying. Its not a good run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I’ll sign for the Euro right now. 7” of snow, plus sleet and freezing rain. Hook me up big time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Here is 6z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 @Ji this one looks better... In all seriousness the Kuchera maps are being REALLY conservative. And yes I know with warm layers and mixing ratios will be low. But even in times and places where every level is below freezing its using crazy low ratios. Maybe it uses thicknesses as part of the equation and since this storm has some unusually high heights that could be throwing it off. I think maybe 10-1 maps could be better here. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Yeah but drier than other guidance, he might be saying. Its not a good run. It has .5-.6" QPF before 850s give way for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Here is 6z euro You're comparing apples to oranges there. That's a 10:1, not Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesrck63 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowDreamer said: With the exception of the PARA, every single model of the 00Z suite so far has moved closer to consensus. @SnowDreamer I love this graphical representation of the trend. Great way to analyze the data and see where we stand across all models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: It has .5-.6" QPF before 850s give way for your area. That’s way too dry for him. He needs 1.5-1.6 QPF before it flips. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 [mention=514]Ji[/mention] this one looks better... In all seriousness the Kuchera maps are being REALLY conservative. And yes I know with warm layers and mixing ratios will be low. But even in times and places where every level is below freezing its using crazy low ratios. Maybe it uses thicknesses as part of the equation and since this storm has some unusually high heights that could be throwing it off. I think maybe 10-1 maps could be better here. Thanks for giving me 3 inches back. This shouldn't be that difficult to accumulate unless the rates are low since surface is torching at 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: [mention=514]Ji[/mention] this one looks better... In all seriousness the Kuchera maps are being REALLY conservative. And yes I know with warm layers and mixing ratios will be low. But even in times and places where every level is below freezing its using crazy low ratios. Maybe it uses thicknesses as part of the equation and since this storm has some unusually high heights that could be throwing it off. I think maybe 10-1 maps could be better here. Thanks for giving me 3 inches back. This shouldn't be that difficult to accumulate unless the rates are low since surface is torching at 26 I still like my 4-8" call for Loudon County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji this one looks better... In all seriousness the Kuchera maps are being REALLY conservative. And yes I know with warm layers and mixing ratios will be low. But even in times and places where every level is below freezing its using crazy low ratios. Maybe it uses thicknesses as part of the equation and since this storm has some unusually high heights that could be throwing it off. I think maybe 10-1 maps could be better here. Normally I’d pessimistically stomp and moan against this but given that temps aren’t an issue on the ground (I hope...) this time, kuchera might be too conservative. However I do think that in a lot of cases kuchera can be a clown map still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: This shouldn't be that difficult to accumulate unless the rates are low since surface is torching at 26 I'm also digging the afternoon highs in the 30s later today. That'll be a nice way to lead into a storm for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Normally I’d pessimistically stomp and moan against this but given that temps aren’t an issue on the ground (I hope...) this time, kuchera might be too conservative. However I do think that in a lot of cases kuchera can be a clown map still. Just like everything else it depends on the situation. In my experience the Kuchera maps seem to depend way too much on heights and thicknesses. In scenarios where its cold aloft and the surface is warm its way too liberal with snow totals. In scenarios where the surface is cold but its warm aloft is can run too low so long as the warm layer is isothermal and stays below freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: My forecast for MBY 6-10" with occasional mixing on Thursday afternoon. That's where you're at on my map lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The Ens mean is pretty sexy..wetter than the OP But does it show 5 to 8 that @Ji promised the teachers and moms? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 EPS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 324 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 VAZ056-171630- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0800Z-210219T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0007.210218T0800Z-210219T1100Z/ Spotsylvania- 324 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of three tenths to four tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Spotsylvania County. * WHEN...From 3 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 324 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 VAZ026-029-038>040-050-051-507-171630- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0500Z-210219T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0007.210218T0500Z-210219T1100Z/ Rockingham-Page-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- 324 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to three tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest and western Virginia. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 324 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 VAZ025-036-037-504-508-171630- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0200Z-210219T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0007.210218T0200Z-210219T0600Z/ Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Eastern Highland- Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 324 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 3 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of two tenths to four tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Augusta, Nelson, Albemarle and Eastern Highland Counties, and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Para has the two wave idea also... but its NICE with wave 2...gets good snow into DC with that even. This is becoming more complicated, but there is a path to a big win here if we can stick both waves. Para was the first model to hint at some additional action on the backside. I noticed it several runs ago- during the brief time when WB offered it lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Somewhat interesting discussion from Mount Holly. Nothing earth shattering, and pretty much agrees with my assessment that the front end is everything here.. Changes...Guidance overall has shifting southward some with the surface low track and therefore is colder. Given enough consensus, shifted some higher snowfall amounts farther south and east. If this colder trend holds, then there may be less freezing rain and just snow/sleet. Still maintained a zone of freezing rain however late Thursday afternoon and evening. Despite some increase in the snow/sleet totals south and eastward some, no changes were made to the Winter Storm Watch. In addition, after collaborating with our neighboring offices we opted to remain with the Watch at this point with no upgrades just yet. Expect all snow at the onset over most of the area due to the cold/dry airmass and the enhanced lift/dynamic cooling in the frontogenesis zone. Given a robust 850-700 MB jet, would expect that we will start to see a transition to sleet from south to north Thursday afternoon. How fast this warm layer aloft progresses north is still a question as guidance continues to wrestle with this. The 00z NAM and some other guidance is a little colder and trended south some with the surface low track. The forecast soundings, especially from the NAM show a decent sleet potential into portions of the I-95 corridor later Thursday afternoon and evening. We continued with a blended approach which gets sleet mixing in across the I-95 corridor. Since the consensus was a little colder, did not bring the mixed precipitation as far northwest as previously. The warm layer aloft may not be well pronounced which may result in more snow, although lighter precipitation intensity could tip that more toward some sleet. Snow and ice amounts...Total were increased some a bit farther south and east based colder trend. The thinking is that a zone of quick accumulations (rates up to 1 inch per hour) occurs with the initial burst but totals then will likely be cut down by mixing later in the event. As of now, the timeframe from about 6 AM to 2 PM Thursday looks to feature heavier snow intensities and when the road conditions should tend to deteriorate quickly. Over the New Jersey coastal plain and southern Delmarva, amounts will be highly dependent upon how well the dynamic cooling with the initial precipitation overcomes the encroaching warm layer aloft. Generally expect 1-3 inches at this time, but amounts further northwest in this zone could get 3-5 inches if the progression continues slightly south. Regarding ice amounts, confidence is rather low at this time, stemming from uncertainty in the positioning of the freezing rain/sleet transition zone. But currently have some areas in the vicinity of I-95 with up to a tenth of an inch of ice Thursday evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 WB 6Z PARA, let’s see if it is the new King...,oops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6z NAM and GFS are a bit north of their previous runs. Not a good move for those of us living on the southern/eastern edge. Really need to see continued slight adjustments south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z PARA, let’s see if it is the new King..., Dude.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 @Weather Will those are 12z yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Outside of that crazy para run the overnight runs including 6z’s seemed like a step back to me in terms of snow and the initial thump and a quicker transition to sleet. Hopefully they go towards a little more snowier solution at 12z here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Will has gone off the rails LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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