Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 one thing we havent had is an impressive shot of cold air right before a storm. You could really feel it this afternoon/tonight. Its hard to believe we have fresh cold right before a sleet storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I'm all in on the 3km NAM. I get my snow AND my sleet. WB posts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: There is a definite trend towards a weaker initial wave Thursday morning but a stronger second (maybe even 3rd wave) after it. I know that complicates things but there is one factor that makes me confident we can avoid a total disaster. There is a synergy between the waves that makes a total fail unlikely. As wave 1 trends weaker...wave 2 trends better because the mid level boundary doesn't get blasted way to the north and the next wave activates it again. So...if the mid level warm push is stronger like on the NAM we get wave 1 and if its weaker like on the GFS and GGEM then we get some of wave 1 and wave 2...maybe a wave 3. But it seems unlikely the way they are set up that all the waves miss. But this multiple wave scenario adds a level of complexity to this. if feel like Having a strong Wave 1 is our best bet and most fun. You are messing with fire with a weak ass wave 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: lol...if the Canadien wave is for real for Monday...that would be a better than anything we had in 19-20 Gfs moving that way too. It's rain but the only problem is boundary layer. Gfs is too warm in mid range. Sno on sno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: if feel like Having a strong Wave 1 is our best bet and most fun. You are messing with fire with a weak ass wave 1 I agree, the cold is going to be at its best as that first wave approaches, but we have no control over it and that is the trend so I am rolling with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Seems pretty likely we get a decent shot of snow first. I'm hoping for 3-4" before mixing. Heavy sleet on top of that is great. And by then we'll be tracking the friday wave and not care whats going on outside 3-4" for you ain't gonna cut for those of us in DC. At least it's mostly frozen but that would definitely not be a win for me. And there is guidance showing that we can do better than that, including NWS pro guidance thus far. 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Again, this is the attitude to have. It's going to sleet on us..me more than you...but it's going to happen. If people set their expectations to where they are, this will be a fun storm. If you are going into this wanted or thinking you are getting 100% snow, then that's on you. I look forward to our sleet overlords. All we can do is hope. Everyone's expectations will be different though. Those of us who haven't gotten much this year won't care as much about what's likely to happen, just the way it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 lol... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: lol its a repeat of that 30 hour storm disaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I'll take what the 03z RAP is smoking for 1,000 please 3 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Ukie sick snow dump up front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 UKMET looks pretty good with the initial thump from the incomplete thermals I can see with the Pivotal Weather temp fields, and thankfully did not trend south from the pretty dicey 12Z run. If we get 0.5 of water prior to 18Z Thursday we will be good for 3-5 inches, which is my hope for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 We know the Euro will have multiple waves....It never misses an opportunity to turn a quick hitter into a 36 hour event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 inches is my bar. Anything less would be a disaster 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 6 inches is my bar. Anything less would be a disaster What if the 0z euro dumps 14 inches and you end up with 7? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 6 inches is my bar. Anything less would be a disaster I have to agree at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Don't. Do. It. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Was the RAP the model that gave us 40" of snow 12 hours out from the start of our 3 day bleh event this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: I have to agree at this point. I'm at 4". Seriously. Just give me four inches and then sleet all you want. All I've seen this year is seven inches nickeled and dimed. The best event was about four over like 50 hours. I've seen moderate snow once and it wasn't even sticking. Just give me a real snow and I'll cut my b*tching and moaning in half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 With the exception of the PARA, every single model of the 00Z suite so far has moved closer to consensus. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: I'm all in on the 3km NAM. I get my snow AND my sleet. WB posts: No one really cares about your “imby” approval. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Ukie sick snow dump up front Pivotal doesn't show precip panels for the Ukie? Or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: Was the RAP the model that gave us 40" of snow 12 hours out from the start of our 3 day bleh event this year? That was the RGEM, had 30 plus inches for baltimore 2 or 3 runs in a row lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Pivotal doesn't show precip panels for the Ukie? Or am I missing something? It does not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, wxtrix said: i want heavy sleet. it's rarer than heavy snow. bring it! I knew I liked you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Pivotal doesn't show precip panels for the Ukie? Or am I missing something? No but it has 6 hour QPF maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: That was the RGEM, had 30 plus inches for baltimore 2 or 3 runs in a row lol. What's the RGEM giving us this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: No one really cares about your “imby” approval. To be honest I would post the same if I was actually getting something for once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: With the exception of the PARA, every single model of the 00Z suite so far has moved closer to consensus. Do you use Kuchera or 10:1 for these? This might be a tough storm to assess because of all the sleet built into the snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: Do you use Kuchera or 10:1 for these? This might be a tough storm to assess because of all the sleet built into the snow totals. It is tough for some, yeah. These are all Kuchera (WxBell) when available, 10:1 when not. Sleet is not included, and if it were, the NAMs would be considerably higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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