clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Get a load of the CMC. Amplifies the following wace and Snows through Saturday to the east. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Wait nvm found it on pivotal. Wow the para is wayyy better. How has it been performing compared to the standard? slightly better scores overall last time I saw a comp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: slightly better scores overall last time I saw a comp Wowwwwww the CMC showing similar. This just. got. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Para and cmc are ok but I wont be satisfied until a 4th wave shows up. 2 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Para and cmc are ok but I wont be satisfied until a 4th wave shows up. You must touch the third rail first! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Para GFS. Predominantly snow for the vast majority of the sub, the second wave is legit. If this verified I would surrender to this storm. Would make me look like a fool. And I'd be ecstatic. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Para and cmc are ok but I wont be satisfied until a 4th wave shows up. why limit ourselves...lets stall this boundary and snow until April. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Para and cmc are ok but I wont be satisfied until a 4th wave shows up. Negative visibility or bust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Para and cmc are ok but I wont be satisfied until a 4th wave shows up. this is like our 9th wave since last week and we are 0-8 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Jokes aside, I know I'm getting sleeted on and prob enough to be annoying if I had to guess but sleet is still fun in it's own way. Seeing all these impulses riding is intriguing. My guess is an east trend. Crazy storm though. Full of surprises. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Para GFS. Predominantly snow for the vast majority of the sub, the second wave is legit. If this verified I would surrender to this storm. Would make me look like a fool. And I'd be ecstatic. . id like to be in 1.7 for once and not .9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Jokes aside, I know I'm getting sleeted on and prob enough to be annoying if I had to guess but sleet is still fun in it's own way. Seeing all these impulses riding is intriguing. My guess is an east trend. Crazy storm though. Full of surprises. did you hear about the lady on the board who wants sleet more than snow? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 this would be the best Friday night of my life 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: id like to be in 1.7 for once and not .9 I'm not 0-8 but I'm 1-7, and the one win wasn't exactly the best, so I hear ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Canadian has our Monday storm too. Just after we're digging out from this KU 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: id like to be in 1.7 for once and not .9 1.7? Dude, you're getting at least 2-3" of snow before the flip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: 1.7? Dude, you're getting at least 2-3" of snow before the flip. He means 1.7 QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 1.7? Dude, you're getting at least 2-3" of snow before the flip. i promised my teachers 5-8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Canadian has our Monday storm too. Just after we're digging out from this KU the Canadien gives us more modeled snow a year than Truckee gets in real life 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, yoda said: He means 1.7 QPF Yea, I know. I'm just forecasting his snow for him because he'll be busy on facebook. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Jokes aside, I know I'm getting sleeted on and prob enough to be annoying if I had to guess but sleet is still fun in it's own way. Seeing all these impulses riding is intriguing. My guess is an east trend. Crazy storm though. Full of surprises. Again, this is the attitude to have. It's going to sleet on us..me more than you...but it's going to happen. If people set their expectations to where they are, this will be a fun storm. If you are going into this wanted or thinking you are getting 100% snow, then that's on you. I look forward to our sleet overlords. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Again, this is the attitude to have. It's going to sleet on us..me more than you...but it's going to happen. If people set their expectations to where they are, this will be a fun storm. If you are going into this wanted or thinking you are getting 100% snow, then that's on you. I look forward to our sleet overlords. here was the GFS 5 days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Again, this is the attitude to have. It's going to sleet on us..me more than you...but it's going to happen. If people set their expectations to where they are, this will be a fun storm. If you are going into this wanted or thinking you are getting 100% snow, then that's on you. I look forward to our sleet overlords. At least this time there will be snow sticking to everything first no problem. Sleet (possibly heavy) will make it a pretty high impact. I expect dc roads all the way to the river to be jacked up most of thurs. Maybe most of fri too if a hail mary streams in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: At least this time there will be snow sticking to everything first no problem. Sleet (possibly heavy) will make it a pretty high impact. I expect dc roads all the way to the river to be jacked up most of thurs. Maybe most of fri too if a hail mary streams in i can handle sleet if i see a bunch of flakes mixed in. Its the pure sleet that aggravates the crap out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ji said: this is like our 9th wave since last week and we are 0-8 2-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: i can handle sleet if i see a bunch of flakes mixed in. Its the pure sleet that aggravates the crap out of me. Seems pretty likely we get a decent shot of snow first. I'm hoping for 3-4" before mixing. Heavy sleet on top of that is great. And by then we'll be tracking the friday wave and not care whats going on outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypothetical 240 hour snow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Simple is better for us... root for the strong thump, trailing shortwaves that may or not produce is a little dicey. We will do fine with ptypes in that thump, we will go isothermal for long enough to hold on to our snow if we get enough FGEN induced lift/dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Assuming we will change to warnings by noon tomorrow? Then we fight the mix (snow sleet) line for 12 hours. Sounds like the best shot this winter. We’re not fighting the usual—I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Seems pretty likely we get a decent shot of snow first. I'm hoping for 3-4" before mixing. Heavy sleet on top of that is great. And by then we'll be tracking the friday wave and not care whats going on outside lol...if the Canadien wave is for real for Monday...that would be a better than anything we had in 19-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 There is a definite trend towards a weaker initial wave Thursday morning but a stronger second (maybe even 3rd wave) after it. I know that complicates things but there is one factor that makes me confident we can avoid a total disaster. There is a synergy between the waves that makes a total fail unlikely. As wave 1 trends weaker...wave 2 trends better because the mid level boundary doesn't get blasted way to the north and the next wave activates it again. So...if the mid level warm push is stronger like on the NAM we get wave 1 and if its weaker like on the GFS and GGEM then we get some of wave 1 and wave 2...maybe a wave 3. But it seems unlikely the way they are set up that all the waves miss. But this multiple wave scenario adds a level of complexity to this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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