mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I was texting her earlier, told her to go low then adjust high as things get closer. A reverse bust is always better than going high and busting way too low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Not sure it was mentioned, but the 3k NAM is an absolute whiteout for the first 3 hours or so for DC north. Like 2”/hr before flipping to heavy sleet. 11 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: I was texting her earlier, told her to go low then adjust high as things get closer. A reverse bust is always better than going high and busting way too low Good advice although doesn’t look like she took it? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Everyone looks in their own yard, but that’s a good bit drier in mine. Not this map, the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, mappy said: I was texting her earlier, told her to go low then adjust high as things get closer. A reverse bust is always better than going high and busting way too low See though I don't think the bust, should it bust, is going to even bee a "bust" If you don't get significant snow, you're going to get obscene sleet and thats going to make up for the bust. The ground will be white just like snow and it will stick around longer and it will be the most sleet you've seen in the last at least 5 years (or more? If it beasts the 2017 storm). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Good advice although doesn’t look like she took it? Ha, yeah I see that. To be fair, she did mention the bust potential was high, on twitter and on the air during the 6am hour. She said even their in-house models were spitting out high totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Everyone looks in their own yard, but that’s a good bit drier in mine. Not this map, the 6z It is drier on the NW edge but man it juiced up to the South...honestly I see that as a positive for two days away if you get my drift 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: See though I don't think the bust, should it bust, is going to even bee a "bust" If you don't get significant snow, you're going to get obscene sleet and thats going to make up for the bust. The ground will be white just like snow and it will stick around longer and it will be the most sleet you've seen in the last at least 5 years (or more? If it beasts the 2017 storm). Agreed, she and I discussed that too. Could easily be a couple inches of snow followed by a ton of sleet before the flip to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Big question: Can a 4-6" snow forecast FINALLY yield a warning level result in Baltimore?? Or will the maddening dance of "oh hey we'll snow 4.8" to troll ya" dance continue? Stay tuned...lol Hopefully! PSU said it yesterday, the potential is definitely there that everyone cashes in before the flip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 As someone who had a mini sleet fest Saturday I can say that it may not register deep it does accumulate fast on the roads and look wintry. This should be fun regardless. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: It is drier on the NW edge but man it juiced up to the South...honestly I see that as a positive for two days away if you get my drift I get your drift. The storm is gonna do what it wants also. So I’m not really sure why I’m posting about precip totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, mappy said: Ha, yeah I see that. To be fair, she did mention the bust potential was high, on twitter and on the air during the 6am hour. She said even their in-house models were spitting out high totals. They love some RPM and IBM GRAF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: They love some RPM and IBM GRAF. They do lol, though I think its more Tom than anything, and she usually has to follow Tom's lead when it comes to what to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, mappy said: They do lol, though I think its more Tom than anything, and she usually has to follow Tom's lead when it comes to what to forecast. She’s really become one of the better mets in our area. Her example last week of baking cakes w different colored layers representing warm air aloft (eg how we get PL or ZR) was clever and done in a way that any joe schmoe could understand. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Haven't been following this threat as closely but wow at how much colder on the surface it has trended. GFS keeps the metros below freezing through 12z Friday. As of yesterday 12z it was looking like we might get above freezing by 00z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: She’s really become one of the better mets in our area. Her example last week of baking cakes w different colored layers representing warm air aloft (eg how we get PL or ZR) was clever and done in a way that any joe schmoe could understand. I'm pretty biased as she and I are good friends, but I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6z euro snow map anyone? I saw the QPF map posted but how much is snow vs sleet/fz? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I get your drift. The storm is gonna do what it wants also. So I’m not really sure why I’m posting about precip totals No taint for is on the Euro. That is the trade off. And the Gfs crushes us. It seems most all of the models are keeping us close to an all snow event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILIKERAKE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I'll take 1-2 hours of this before going over to all sleet. Won't be nice fluffy dendrites but just complete craziness. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Orange from Sterling? That's a downgrade for the Piedmont.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Orange from Sterling? That's a downgrade for the Piedmont.. Not for Day 3. Yesterday Day 3 (Wednesday) was yellow for everyone. Day 4 is the one you're thinking of that was red. edit: nevermind, I'm wrong. I see Day 3 is now Thursday which was red in spots. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 We've seen a drying and deamplification trend as we close in on events this year. Wonder if that happens this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILIKERAKE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Orange from Sterling? That's a downgrade for the Piedmont.. yeah, it looks like they ticked their confidence down a notch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Confidence is the same, but the forecasted impact isn't as severe. They mentioned in their forecast discussion that they expected moderate impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 It’s interesting how the GFS is basically WAA/coastal vs WAA from the primary into the OH valley then coastal transfer. It seems more of a Miller A at this point on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 It's going to be just disgusting across much of central VA it seems. I guess maybe we'll get a nice freeze over with it? I dunno. Rooting for folks to the north who missed the earlier storms to get plastered. Absolutely laughing at the 6Z GFS that verbatim gives CHO 9.9" according to Kuchera. No way in the world that happens. LOL the 10:1 has us at nearly 12". Clearly drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Confidence is the same, but the impact isn't as severe. They mentioned in their forecast discussion that they expected moderate impact. I was just assuming that yesterday day 3 was red which is now day 2 so they aren't showing that in the 3-7 day threats 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It really sucks that the subscribers won't post snow maps from bad runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I was just assuming that yesterday day 3 was red which is now day 2 so they aren't showing that in the 3-7 day threats They need one of those graphics for days 1-2 to clear up confusion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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