BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Here's a fun comparison! I know it's the HRRR at range, but most guidance has wave 2 impacting our area. HRRR at hr 46 Aaaand Euro at 46. Just a tiny difference. New York to Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, DCAlexandria said: Nam looks South. More digging. . Tucked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. Its a really prolonged event on the HRRR. Definitely sticking to the distinct 2 wave idea. Similar to what the Para was portraying. Yep, even gets DC back to sleet from freezing rain at the end of the run. Would be a fun event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 41 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's good way to extrapolate what may happen. eta: The reason I brought this up is just yesterday the euro had a prime KU high. Now that scenario has changed. On the 3k the high is north of east of Ontario so I have no idea. Yea the location of that blue H may not be hut there is a huge sprawling banana high from the Midwest to New England and a general center is north of Ontario. On the euro the main max is in upstate NY but the pressure is 1034 north of Ontario and 1035 in upstate NY. That is insignificant. The whole high didn’t move the model is just jumping around with where the exact lowest pressure in that huge sprawling high is run to run. I honestly don’t have a clue what you’re on about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 NAM starts as snow just north of RIC at hour 35ish. 36 Beatdown incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 HR 36 Looks colder at 700mb again. I like it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 42 minutes ago, Cobalt said: No Short Pump jackpot on DT's first guess.. not sure if that's something to be concerned about or not That’s actually not a bad map and pretty close to my current thinking in our area. Might be too liberal with the 3-6 area way up north and I might have the axis of the 6-10 more ENE then. NE and make it 6-12 because I think some isolated spots hit close to 12. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Wall of snow incoming on the NAM at 10z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Another push south with the cold on the 0z Nam. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Man. I dont know what the precip type is at 39 on this crappy map. But the NAM is wet as hell. Holy Winchester crush job at 39 man! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Man. I dont know what the precip type is at 39 on this crappy map. But the NAM is wet as hell. You are already at 7 inches at 39hrs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Man. I dont know what the precip type is at 39 on this crappy map. But the NAM is wet as hell. Something is falling at DCA 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Damn close. I'm sure soundings will show it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Over to sleet here at 42. But Leesburg is hanging on it looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Damn close. I'm sure soundings will show it better. Another shift colder from 18z as the same time had it to Clarksburg in Northern MoCo. Continuing the trend. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 All hail king NAM, which has caved for the 4th consecutive run. Thank god 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 NAM keeps dropping in the pesky warm layer. No surprise. It’s bouncing around on the location of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Also a quick hitter - outta there by 4pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Also a quick hitter - outta there by 4pmThe nam hates us and this storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 Don’t do it people. Don’t feed it 4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3k has a better thump for DC than 18z before the flip to sleet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Sorry man it's just not your year First victim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Sorry man it's just not your yearMakes me appreciate 2018-19. Way more snow with alot less tracking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3K is a thing of beauty out this way. Seriously thumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Yeah that’s one of the most bizarre looking warm tongues I’ve seen. Can’t say I’d put much weight into it tbh. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Don’t do it people. Don’t feed it IT already sees the back edge. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 IT already sees the back edge. I already see the back edge and it's Tuesday 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Total precip map anyone? The crap NCEP maps look uber wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Both NAMs put down .5" of QPF between 10 am and 1 pm in DC, the big question seems to be what the precip type is but that's a crazy 3 hours either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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