Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Hell yeah. I could tell. HRRR is a weenie run thru 38. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: These things always seem to go from something simple and workable to convoluted. The good front end thump is perfect for this set up with the legit cold/dry air in place initially. That idea seems all but gone. The regular GFS still has it though. I will probably have to kick it out of bed in a couple hours. I was noting earlier that the low track this go around is more of a hybrid Miller A/B, so at least this time we shouldn't have to worry (as much) about transfer issues or a rapidly impinging dry slot. Hoping this time we'll see a prolonged period of fatty flakes before the flip. While during the prolonged snow/sleet/freezing rain/back to snow event the other week I ended up with 4.0" of storm total snow, for the winter thus far I still have yet to see more than 2.5" before ending or mixing. So 3-4" is my bar. If we can get more than that from DC and areas along 50 east to the Cape, and add on a little glaciation with some sleet and freezing rain, I'll be happy. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 00z HRRR at 14z Thursday, (HR 38), DCA is upper 20s at the surface. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Previous runs of the HRRR has outright precip hole after the initial round of moisture. The 00z run appears to have that pretty much gone. Things lighten up, but it's not a nasty dry slot or anything. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 HRRR Precip with first batch of moisture. Second batch is lining me up after 39: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 SREFs give 2.1" to DCA, joining the CMC/EURO camp. NAM twins on an island with <1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, WxMan1 said: I was noting earlier that the low track this go around is more of a hybrid Miller A/B, so at least this time we shouldn't have to worry (as much) about transfer issues or a rapidly impinging dry slot. Hoping this time we'll see a prolonged period of fatty flakes before the flip. While during the prolonged snow/sleet/freezing rain/back to snow event the other week I ended up with 4.0" of storm total snow, for the winter thus far I still have yet to see more than 2.5" before ending or mixing. So 3-4" is my bar. If we can get more than that from DC and areas along 50 east to the Cape, and add on a little glaciation with some sleet and freezing rain, I'll be happy. Yeah it has been clear since this first began trending back from what looked a rain event, that the best possible outcome would include quite a bit of non-snow p-types for the coastal plain. But now that we are here, the way to maximize the snow part is to get it to come in hot and heavy on the front end. Maybe the precip 'fork' look will morph into something different in the next few runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 HRRR also gives DC like .15" of QPF in an hour after the flip when it's really close to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 33 minutes ago, Cobalt said: KU 101 also suggests that our KUs storms don't come from a +AO, +EPO, +NAO, and -PNA regime in a mod Nina. The fact that there's even an outside chance of getting close to warning level snows within a vicinity of the metros is pretty impressive here. KU no but we often do get decent snow events AFTER a blocking episode breaks down due to the course of events that was already set in motion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: HRRR Precip with first batch of moisture. Second batch is lining me up after 39: Part 2 looks to flip you back to snow too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Previous runs of the HRRR has outright precip hole after the initial round of moisture. The 00z run appears to have that pretty much gone. Things lighten up, but it's not a nasty dry slot or anything. Here's a fun comparison! I know it's the HRRR at range, but most guidance has wave 2 impacting our area. HRRR at hr 46 Aaaand Euro at the same time. Just a tiny difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Part 2 looks to flip you back to snow too. Yeah. Its a really prolonged event on the HRRR. Definitely sticking to the distinct 2 wave idea. Similar to what the Para was portraying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Nam looks South. More digging. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Here's a fun comparison! I know it's the HRRR at range, but most guidance has wave 2 impacting our area. HRRR at hr 46 Aaaand Euro at 46. Just a tiny difference. New York to Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, DCAlexandria said: Nam looks South. More digging. . Tucked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. Its a really prolonged event on the HRRR. Definitely sticking to the distinct 2 wave idea. Similar to what the Para was portraying. Yep, even gets DC back to sleet from freezing rain at the end of the run. Would be a fun event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 41 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's good way to extrapolate what may happen. eta: The reason I brought this up is just yesterday the euro had a prime KU high. Now that scenario has changed. On the 3k the high is north of east of Ontario so I have no idea. Yea the location of that blue H may not be hut there is a huge sprawling banana high from the Midwest to New England and a general center is north of Ontario. On the euro the main max is in upstate NY but the pressure is 1034 north of Ontario and 1035 in upstate NY. That is insignificant. The whole high didn’t move the model is just jumping around with where the exact lowest pressure in that huge sprawling high is run to run. I honestly don’t have a clue what you’re on about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 NAM starts as snow just north of RIC at hour 35ish. 36 Beatdown incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 HR 36 Looks colder at 700mb again. I like it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 42 minutes ago, Cobalt said: No Short Pump jackpot on DT's first guess.. not sure if that's something to be concerned about or not That’s actually not a bad map and pretty close to my current thinking in our area. Might be too liberal with the 3-6 area way up north and I might have the axis of the 6-10 more ENE then. NE and make it 6-12 because I think some isolated spots hit close to 12. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Wall of snow incoming on the NAM at 10z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Another push south with the cold on the 0z Nam. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Man. I dont know what the precip type is at 39 on this crappy map. But the NAM is wet as hell. Holy Winchester crush job at 39 man! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Man. I dont know what the precip type is at 39 on this crappy map. But the NAM is wet as hell. You are already at 7 inches at 39hrs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Man. I dont know what the precip type is at 39 on this crappy map. But the NAM is wet as hell. Something is falling at DCA 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Damn close. I'm sure soundings will show it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Over to sleet here at 42. But Leesburg is hanging on it looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Damn close. I'm sure soundings will show it better. Another shift colder from 18z as the same time had it to Clarksburg in Northern MoCo. Continuing the trend. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 All hail king NAM, which has caved for the 4th consecutive run. Thank god 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 NAM keeps dropping in the pesky warm layer. No surprise. It’s bouncing around on the location of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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