WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The 0z NAM looks awful. The high is 5 miles from where it should be 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 0z HRRR gets snow close to Hagerstown tomorrow evening with the snow finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The 0z NAM looks awful. The high is 5 miles from where it should be Man don't DO that to me! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: lol ok I see now...problem is the pivoltal maps are a LOT more conservative then those wxbell ones so its not a fair comp. The 12z Pivotal only had you at 6.5" and its about 4.5 on 19z. So yea a trend down...but not as extreme as it seems comparing a liberal 12z map to a conservative 18z one. lol None of these maps are ever good lol. Just looking at the thermals I know what I need here. Precip needs to come in fast and fall hard, and even then 2-4" is probably the best outcome before mixing. That has seemed like a reasonable expectation, but with these latest solutions implying an initial dry area, that wont work. Now we are seeing some potential on the backside on some guidance, but I don't trust that a bit given how the coastal looks to evolve. That will end up being little to nothing at this latitude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Our good snowstorms have the high positioned just north of Lake Ontario. Both 3Km NAM and the 18Z euro don't show that. KU 101 Ok... umm... so...AAAAHHHHHHH Deep breaths, calm calm calm....count to 10....ok ready 1. The high is north of Ontario...it stretches across all of Ontario into southern Quebec and New England. The exact to the fraction of a MB center of the high is irrelevant. 2. Yes there are duel centers and one is a little east of where we might see the avg of all our HECS storms but... not all setups are the same. This is NOT a HECS scenario. We do not currently have any blocking. Yes the extreme blocking we had kicked off the progression that got us to this point so I am not denying blocking had a lot to do with this threat...but at this moment there is none and without a high located in front of it, it would cut. The high is kinda perfect for THIS setup...directly in the way of the axis of where the low wants to track. Creating the resistance to the screaming SW to NE jet and forcing the storm to track further east then it would otherwise given the upper level flow. Not all setups are the same and you cannot apply generic rules to every snow scenario. There are even some rare setups where we don't need a high at all...like in the case of a boundary wave along an arctic front or an inverted trough setup. You have to analyze the physics of each specific synoptic setup individually. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Man don't DO that to me! It’s. Not even started yet lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: That’s actually fairly reasonable I think unlike his last couple from what I remember +1 for this. DT's map still for sure higher than mine, but much more reasonable than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 HRRR is gonna be a really nice run I think...can already tell at hr 33. Yeah it’s at range but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, DCAlexandria said: It’s. Not even started yet lol I know but I just got back to my computer and that was the first thing I saw. The NAM has been @WxWatcher007's right hand man this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I'm gonna make a first call map tomorrow after the 12z runs. I have some personal thoughts on this type of event and how it might unfold. I'll lay them out tomorrow. Until then, a colder trend into game time across the boundary layer would work wonders 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: HRRR is gonna be a really nice run I think...can already tell at hr 33. Yeah it’s at range but still which neighborhood in montreal is it showing the H? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Finally got some free time. And I spent the first 5 minutes of it with my eyes bleeding from the last 2 pages discussing the exact location of a digital blue H. I need relevant analysis like how much in Rockville. 5 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Srefs are wettttt and snow line steady sliding south How wet? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Srefs are wettttt and snow line steady sliding south towards other guidance They always have a full inch more qpf than every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 HRRR is sweet man. DC goes over to sleet after 4 hours of heavy snow. Everyone else north and west of there is still all snow at 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I have the 00z HRRR out to HR37 on COD and it looks pretty good from EZF north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 There's some really sick rippage in DC for at least a few hours on HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Hell yeah. I could tell. HRRR is a weenie run thru 38. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: These things always seem to go from something simple and workable to convoluted. The good front end thump is perfect for this set up with the legit cold/dry air in place initially. That idea seems all but gone. The regular GFS still has it though. I will probably have to kick it out of bed in a couple hours. I was noting earlier that the low track this go around is more of a hybrid Miller A/B, so at least this time we shouldn't have to worry (as much) about transfer issues or a rapidly impinging dry slot. Hoping this time we'll see a prolonged period of fatty flakes before the flip. While during the prolonged snow/sleet/freezing rain/back to snow event the other week I ended up with 4.0" of storm total snow, for the winter thus far I still have yet to see more than 2.5" before ending or mixing. So 3-4" is my bar. If we can get more than that from DC and areas along 50 east to the Cape, and add on a little glaciation with some sleet and freezing rain, I'll be happy. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 00z HRRR at 14z Thursday, (HR 38), DCA is upper 20s at the surface. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Previous runs of the HRRR has outright precip hole after the initial round of moisture. The 00z run appears to have that pretty much gone. Things lighten up, but it's not a nasty dry slot or anything. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 HRRR Precip with first batch of moisture. Second batch is lining me up after 39: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 SREFs give 2.1" to DCA, joining the CMC/EURO camp. NAM twins on an island with <1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, WxMan1 said: I was noting earlier that the low track this go around is more of a hybrid Miller A/B, so at least this time we shouldn't have to worry (as much) about transfer issues or a rapidly impinging dry slot. Hoping this time we'll see a prolonged period of fatty flakes before the flip. While during the prolonged snow/sleet/freezing rain/back to snow event the other week I ended up with 4.0" of storm total snow, for the winter thus far I still have yet to see more than 2.5" before ending or mixing. So 3-4" is my bar. If we can get more than that from DC and areas along 50 east to the Cape, and add on a little glaciation with some sleet and freezing rain, I'll be happy. Yeah it has been clear since this first began trending back from what looked a rain event, that the best possible outcome would include quite a bit of non-snow p-types for the coastal plain. But now that we are here, the way to maximize the snow part is to get it to come in hot and heavy on the front end. Maybe the precip 'fork' look will morph into something different in the next few runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 HRRR also gives DC like .15" of QPF in an hour after the flip when it's really close to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 33 minutes ago, Cobalt said: KU 101 also suggests that our KUs storms don't come from a +AO, +EPO, +NAO, and -PNA regime in a mod Nina. The fact that there's even an outside chance of getting close to warning level snows within a vicinity of the metros is pretty impressive here. KU no but we often do get decent snow events AFTER a blocking episode breaks down due to the course of events that was already set in motion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: HRRR Precip with first batch of moisture. Second batch is lining me up after 39: Part 2 looks to flip you back to snow too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Previous runs of the HRRR has outright precip hole after the initial round of moisture. The 00z run appears to have that pretty much gone. Things lighten up, but it's not a nasty dry slot or anything. Here's a fun comparison! I know it's the HRRR at range, but most guidance has wave 2 impacting our area. HRRR at hr 46 Aaaand Euro at the same time. Just a tiny difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: Part 2 looks to flip you back to snow too. Yeah. Its a really prolonged event on the HRRR. Definitely sticking to the distinct 2 wave idea. Similar to what the Para was portraying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Nam looks South. More digging. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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