BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 One big difference with the 3km NAM is the positioning of the high. No bueno 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: I think we have an evolving situation with the back end. Euro now has 4"for southern DE. That dead zone is kind of brutal, but will probably change. Some how Talbot County always maximizes the dead zone, not exactly sure what factors cause that to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: One big difference with the 3km NAM is the positioning of the high. No bueno This run came out 5 hours ago 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ji said: 42 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: ??? What a disaster. Too much blue in Loudoun Lol so 4-6” instead of rain you were expecting a few days ago is a disaster? Why must you always ruin it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: This run came out 5 hours ago It has had the best handle on recent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Did the 18z Para have a malfunction? It’s on pivotal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It has had the best handle on recent storms. Yes, but let's wait for the new nam run in about an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 How’s the Good For Snow looking this eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: One big difference with the 3km NAM is the positioning of the high. No bueno I don’t understand this post. The high is is in pretty good spot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: It’s on pivotal It never came out on WB at 18z. What does it look like? It was my baby, but I am sure it betrayed me. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: I don’t understand this post. The high is is in pretty good spot. Some people only look for the little L. This map shows the pressures a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: I don’t understand this post. The high is is in pretty good spot. One is the euro. One is the 3K NAM…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: right..which I why I said entertainment purposes and suggested we wait for Kuchera Ok but I bet even the weatherbell 10:1 map wasn’t like that storm vista one. Something was up with that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: One is the euro. One is the 3K man…. Ugh. You’re right and I’m an idiot. Point remains lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: This run came out 5 hours ago What on gods green Earth are you smoking. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Ok but I bet even the weatherbell 10:1 map wasn’t like that storm vista one. Something was up with that map Yeah dude. The SV map counts sleet/ice as snow. QPF is higher down that way and it counts sleet/ZR as snow - hence the higher totals depicted. Those SV maps are useless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: What on gods green Earth are you smoking. It’s the only reason we have any chance at all lol. The high position is not the reason we are flipping and not all snow. It’s practically ideal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Two more model suites before I think anyone can even begin to accurately predict amounts given how the winter has gone. Not saying anything that I’m sure everyone on here doesn’t already know but this is far from set in stone. I would think bust potential is fairly high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 @CAPE 4 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: @CAPE Oh, hell yes. Definitely fear it’s a bit overdone with its somewhat cold bias in the mid levels (not as good at catching warming at 700 as mesos like the NAM are) but a solid overall look. Thinking 4-6” for Baltimore before a sloppy mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Wait now there are TWO “claws”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: It’s the only reason we have any chance at all lol. The high position is not the reason we are flipping and not all snow. It’s practically ideal. And its not like its a 1022 high thats weak AF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 @CAPE It has the double max thing some guidance shows...the 6" plus area south of DC is from the lead wave Tuesday morning that DC is on the northern fringes of the heavy stuff with...then it runs a second heavy band of precip up in the afternoon and evening but 95 SE is mixy so the heavy snow with that is NW of 95...creating that kinda dead space of 4-6" in between the 6" plus zones. Luckily this time the "dead zone" looks like a local minimum but not the total screw job some recent storms had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Yep that is a hell of a betrayal. Matches everything else though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Jackpot is near 81 and along the md line on every model. Pretty good agreement actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What on gods green Earth are you smoking. Must be something good. Am I dumb? 18z NAM comes out at 2:40pm, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AceDoc Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: I gotchu Jeez Louise... we already got enough ice this year in the metro RIC area, especially south of town. Still many without power. Give me the 18z GFS, or just rain, over this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE It has the double max thing some guidance shows...the 6" plus area south of DC is from the lead wave Tuesday morning that DC is on the northern fringes of the heavy stuff with...then it runs a second heavy band of precip up in the afternoon and evening but 95 SE is mixy so the heavy snow with that is NW of 95...creating that kinda dead space of 4-6" in between the 6" plus zones. Luckily this time the "dead zone" looks like a local minimum but not the total screw job some recent storms had. This is what it looked like at 12z lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: It’s the only reason we have any chance at all lol. The high position is not the reason we are flipping and not all snow. It’s practically ideal. Our good snowstorms have the high positioned just north of Lake Ontario. Both 3Km NAM and the 18Z euro don't show that. KU 101 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, AceDoc said: Jeez Louise... we already got enough ice this year in the metro RIC area, especially south of town. Still many without power. Give me the 18z GFS, or just rain, over this. Yeah. I really do feel for you all down in Southern VA. This looks catastrophic for a lot of the area down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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