aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: For entertainment purposes 10:1....Kuchera will be more accurate Might be my screen but 10-15" into NC? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: I hate the Euro. It's such a fail for the different scenarios that would give much enjoyment. At least with the GFS and co, it's a ton of snow. And with the NAM, it's 3" of sleet and then freezing rain to make the biggest mess we've seen in a while (and this is my personal favorite solution because, again, I LOVE 3"+ sleet bombs) But the Euro? Non-warning snow, insignificant sleet, and a tenth an inch of Zr We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: I hate the Euro. It's such a fail for the different scenarios that would give much enjoyment. At least with the GFS and co, it's a ton of snow. And with the NAM, it's 3" of sleet and then freezing rain to make the biggest mess we've seen in a while (and this is my personal favorite solution because, again, I LOVE 3"+ sleet bombs) But the Euro? Non-warning snow, insignificant sleet, and a tenth an inch of Zr It's like 10" for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: It's like 10" for you Looking at Kuchera in Germantown its 4.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Might be my screen but 10-15" into NC? Yeah I don’t get that either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 CWG up their totals to 4-8 with 2-4 in the bust range. 5-10 over NW burbs. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: I hate the Euro. It's such a fail for the different scenarios that would give much enjoyment. At least with the GFS and co, it's a ton of snow. And with the NAM, it's 3" of sleet and then freezing rain to make the biggest mess we've seen in a while (and this is my personal favorite solution because, again, I LOVE 3"+ sleet bombs) But the Euro? Non-warning snow, insignificant sleet, and a tenth an inch of Zr Euro is 6" - 10" for Montgomery County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Might be my screen but 10-15" into NC? Those SV maps don’t differentiate sleet, it just gets counted as 10:1 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: For entertainment purposes 10:1....Kuchera will be more accurate Seems like a really strange snow map output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: I wouldn't say that exactly. The wave 2 we were talking about on the 12z run is practically nonexistent on the 18z. Regardless, the axis of heavy precip moved NW some, but 850s and 700s only gave in a little. It's actually wetter for the initial thump for IAD and points NW I believe, it's just that it lost the ~.2-.3" qpf that came from wave 2. 18z has been wonky the past 2 days, not that I'm too certain about anything in regards to off hour runs. It's probably 800-850 that is worrisome...higher up and lower down in the column is safe for DCA. Even 850 temps peak at 0. Now we know there is probably a +1 warm nose somewhere....but it doesnt look like a sleetfest for the cities ala nam... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Euro is 6" - 10" for Montgomery County. ??? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: ??? not that much will be added, but it's still snowing at hour 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: ??? I think that map's a bit pessimistic. Aloft looks a bit colder and there's going to be sleet on top of that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Snow showers move through on the trailing end of the system. Would be nice to get an inch on top of the snow/sleet pack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Minor snow showers in D.C. on Friday help add on another inch Drier and a touch warmer is not a good combo... Small step back from 12Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Kuchera at hour 75 will give a more fulsome picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 There's been a last minute trend for drier and deamplification within HR36 this winter. I'm hoping the 18z Euro isn't sniffing out a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: ??? Solid event, I’d sign for the 3 inches that gives me right now if I could. 3 inches + sleet + snow showers + a cold weekend is about as good as it gets most of the time for us. Gotta just roll with it, can’t be punting events like this as a mid Atlantic weenie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: It's like 10" for you Those SV maps count ice as 10-1 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Solid event, I’d sign for the 3 inches that gives me right now if I could. 3 inches + sleet + snow showers + a cold weekend is about as good as it gets most of the time for us. Gotta just roll with it, can’t be punting events like this as a mid Atlantic weenie. Oh I'm not punting. I'm banking on the NAM, everyone knows I want a 3" sleet bomb capped with .25"+ of freezing rain. Those are fun. Stays for days. Everything caves instantly. But if I'm not getting the NAM's solution, give me the GFS any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Those SV maps count ice as 10-1 snow There is little to no ice in Germantown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: Oh I'm not punting. I'm banking on the NAM, everyone knows I want a 3" sleet bomb capped with .25"+ of freezing rain. Those are fun. Stays for days. Everything caves instantly. But if I'm not getting the NAM's solution, give me the GFS any day. 3 inch sleet bombs are more rare than big snow storms, I wouldn’t get your hopes up for that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: I'm banking on the NAM, everyone knows I want a 3" sleet bomb capped with .25"+ of freezing rain. Those are fun. Stays for days. Everything caves instantly. I think we got it after the 20th time 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Euro 🪓. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said: CWG up their totals to 4-8 with 2-4 in the bust range. 5-10 over NW burbs. I’m a fan of those guys but I will be shocked if that forecast verifies for DCA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Verbatim I would take the 3.5”, but it seems like the on the ground truth is always half of what the clownmaps show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I think we have an evolving situation with the back end. Euro now has 4"for southern DE. That dead zone is kind of brutal, but will probably change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I mean that’s a far cry from that storm vista map. And it makes a lot more sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts