ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Euro is 6" - 10" for Montgomery County. ??? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: ??? I think that map's a bit pessimistic. Aloft looks a bit colder and there's going to be sleet on top of that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Snow showers move through on the trailing end of the system. Would be nice to get an inch on top of the snow/sleet pack. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Minor snow showers in D.C. on Friday help add on another inch Drier and a touch warmer is not a good combo... Small step back from 12Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 There's been a last minute trend for drier and deamplification within HR36 this winter. I'm hoping the 18z Euro isn't sniffing out a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: ??? Solid event, I’d sign for the 3 inches that gives me right now if I could. 3 inches + sleet + snow showers + a cold weekend is about as good as it gets most of the time for us. Gotta just roll with it, can’t be punting events like this as a mid Atlantic weenie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: It's like 10" for you Those SV maps count ice as 10-1 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Solid event, I’d sign for the 3 inches that gives me right now if I could. 3 inches + sleet + snow showers + a cold weekend is about as good as it gets most of the time for us. Gotta just roll with it, can’t be punting events like this as a mid Atlantic weenie. Oh I'm not punting. I'm banking on the NAM, everyone knows I want a 3" sleet bomb capped with .25"+ of freezing rain. Those are fun. Stays for days. Everything caves instantly. But if I'm not getting the NAM's solution, give me the GFS any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: Oh I'm not punting. I'm banking on the NAM, everyone knows I want a 3" sleet bomb capped with .25"+ of freezing rain. Those are fun. Stays for days. Everything caves instantly. But if I'm not getting the NAM's solution, give me the GFS any day. 3 inch sleet bombs are more rare than big snow storms, I wouldn’t get your hopes up for that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: I'm banking on the NAM, everyone knows I want a 3" sleet bomb capped with .25"+ of freezing rain. Those are fun. Stays for days. Everything caves instantly. I think we got it after the 20th time 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Euro 🪓. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said: CWG up their totals to 4-8 with 2-4 in the bust range. 5-10 over NW burbs. I’m a fan of those guys but I will be shocked if that forecast verifies for DCA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Verbatim I would take the 3.5”, but it seems like the on the ground truth is always half of what the clownmaps show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I think we have an evolving situation with the back end. Euro now has 4"for southern DE. That dead zone is kind of brutal, but will probably change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I mean that’s a far cry from that storm vista map. And it makes a lot more sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: I think we have an evolving situation with the back end. Euro now has 4"for southern DE. That dead zone is kind of brutal, but will probably change. Quickly becoming something of a two part storm. We might just hit both before it’s over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Quickly becoming something of a two part storm. We might just hit both before it’s over. Looks like it. I just hope I can get in on the goods of one or both. Kind of looking betwixt and between here for the snowy parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The Euro is still pretty new to the 18z model game. So we have to take that into consideration...I’ll see myself out. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I think we got it after the 20th time Lol! If I say it enough maybe it will happen. Like let me just preemptively embrace the NAM as my model lord and savior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Drier...but still a pretty good run...not any significant changesFreaking off runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 ??? What a disaster. Too much blue in Loudoun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 26 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said: CWG up their totals to 4-8 with 2-4 in the bust range. 5-10 over NW burbs. 8 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I’m a fan of those guys but I will be shocked if that forecast verifies for DCA. I'm not seeing that anywhere atm, but if that's true it would be an extremely bullish forecast for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18z Euro fr rain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 19 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: There is little to no ice in Germantown There is some. They lose 850s for 6 hours on the high res maps. It’s super close but since there is likely a small warmer layer somewhere other then exactly 850 we can assume it’s not snow. And that period is a decent chunk of precip. That said the kuchera maps seem overly conservative. I think because this storm has fairly high thicknesses and I think kuchera factors that in its being overly pessimistic. Ratios won’t be high but not as low as it’s going where it has like 8-1 with all levels sub zero and cold ground. That’s too low imo. It wasn’t a horrible run but it was worse then 12z and the runt of 18z. It didn’t trend north though. Just dryer. Cut down on snow up in PA also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 38 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Drier...but still a pretty good run...not any significant changes Freaking off runs I guess tonight will be the typical Ji pre-storm meltdown? Can’t wait to read it later! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 31 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: ??? What a disaster. Too much blue in Loudoun Just not your year man...sorry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: 18z Euro fr rain? I gotchu 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: right..which I why I said entertainment purposes and suggested we wait for Kuchera Ah c'mon...you know that fine print isn't gonna get read on here, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Did the 18z Para have a malfunction? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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