North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: 12-18" is possible here. We almost had that very end of last year, but the TROWAL setup 40 miles to the east and they got 15-18". Our area is great at missing the worst and areas to the northeast are the winners in most winter events. We have our own jackpot crew here too NEofMidlandHoffman probably the main poster from there... 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Worth noting that the high was supposed to be near 50 and we only got low 40s along with the temp dropping faster than expected. From my base level understanding this should cool the ground and lead to stuff sticking but for anyone who knows stuff about the weather what would this mean for the storm? Would it change the upper levels some? For what it's worth, do NOT worry about the coolness of the ground. The airmass arriving as advertised will help where it matters upstairs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Thankfully the RPM jackpots me so I’m hugging 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nice improvement on gefs 18z was a much colder run. dang. its so weird to trend well 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Ji said: dang. its so weird to trend well This looks like the padding we need for the dreaded shift... but we have the NAM to continue the concern as well. It is great to see these all in our favor.. need 0Z to hold or improve more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: dang. its so weird to trend well Don’t jinx it! If this falls apart I am blaming you! Temp 38, DP 20something, breezyish....from the north or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Thankfully the RPM jackpots me so I’m hugging Tom had 6+ for 95 and west during the 5-6pm news. Guess he agreed with Ava 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Tom had 6+ for 95 and west during the 5-6pm news. Guess he agreed with Ava Still seems aggressive at this point but whatevs. I’m fully expecting tomorrow to be Rug Pull: Episode V, Revenge of the NAM. 10 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Ever since the March 2013 storm I’ve been a believer in the rpm in close. The weather channel showed that model the night before that storm and it was amazing how reality matched the sim radar that the model produced. Note: Had anybody, including Jim Cantore, watched that model the night before they wouldn’t have been as disappointed the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Still seems aggressive at this point but whatevs. I’m fully expecting tomorrow to be Rug Pull: Episode V, Revenge of the NAM. lol fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Still seems aggressive at this point but whatevs. I’m fully expecting tomorrow to be Rug Pull: Episode V, Revenge of the NAM. we need to become a snowstown again so we dont think like this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoSailer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 For those wondering this is what the RPM shows 4 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, SoCoSailer said: For those wondering this is what the RPM shows I thought the RPM was a model that could be customized and run by many different entities? Am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 North North and west special again bummer 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, SoCoSailer said: For those wondering this is what the RPM shows sold! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, SoCoSailer said: For those wondering this is what the RPM shows That model is money! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said: North North and west special again bummer This model is money 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: This model is money And three hours old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, SoCoSailer said: For those wondering this is what the RPM shows Legit cackled. There are news stations that actually believe and use this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: This model is money The 3k nam sow depth shows similar 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Well, in terms of storm type, it's probably closer to a hybrid Miller A than a B, at least with respect to the surface reflection. Doesn't look like we'd have the transfer issues a B-type storm would have (and has given us) this year...so I can certainly see why the guidance trends would be more bullish in terms of the upper-bound or "boom" totals. I do see enough pieces of guidance (including the 18Z para GFS) that shows that "claw" configuration some of you were referring to (later changeover = heavier snow N/NW of DC, better initial FGEN/QPF and front-end thump = heaver snow S/SE of DC) -- which would leave the 50 corridor from DC to Annapolis (MBY) in a relative min. Still -- I have yet to experience a snowfall this year that yielded more than 2.5" before dry slotting or changing to sleet or freezing rain. So, my bar is 4-6", which I would most assuredly take along with any glaciation of sleet and freezing rain that follows. 10 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18z Euro is a little more amped and a little warmer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Euro doesn't have the same degree of late blossoming of precip as 12z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Drier...but still a pretty good run...not any significant changes 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Drier...but still a pretty good run...not any significant changes Is it drier areawide, and if so, by about how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deck Pic said: Drier...but still a pretty good run...not any significant changes Will reserve judgement for the 0z run, these off hours have been wonky as of late. Weenie-ism but we saw other models juice up at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 For entertainment purposes 10:1....Kuchera will be more accurate 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I hate the Euro. It's such a fail for the different scenarios that would give much enjoyment. At least with the GFS and co, it's a ton of snow. And with the NAM, it's 3" of sleet and then freezing rain to make the biggest mess we've seen in a while (and this is my personal favorite solution because, again, I LOVE 3"+ sleet bombs) But the Euro? Non-warning snow, insignificant sleet, and a tenth an inch of Zr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Drier...but still a pretty good run...not any significant changes I wouldn't say that exactly. The wave 2 we were talking about on the 12z run is practically nonexistent on the 18z. Regardless, the axis of heavy precip moved NW some, but 850s and 700s only gave in a little. It's actually wetter for the initial thump for IAD and points NW I believe, it's just that it lost the ~.2-.3" qpf that came from wave 2. 18z has been wonky the past 2 days, not that I'm too certain about anything in regards to off hour runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts