WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, high risk said: Interesting that the GFS para again focuses the initial thump further south. The northern areas score, but it's actually during the afternoon. It's also more aggressive than the ops with moving the changeover line further north. Verbatim, it hits southern areas with a lot of snow in the morning and hits northern areas with a lot of snow in the afternoon - there is an impressive screw zone running along I-50 from DC to Annapolis. I like it for our backyards. Sleet line gets so close I'd probably be able to hear it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: Interesting is a lot nicer word than I would have used! Luckily it’s the only model really focusing that southern max of the initial push. I have a feeling that it will settle along a line from Winchester to northern Maryland, but without that dramatic drop in between. Yeah, the GFS para seems to be somewhat on its own. You can see it in the 700 winds, which are much weaker up along and south of I-66. I haven't look into why v16 is weaker, but the much reduced convergence early Thursday over northern VA and the DC area is very clear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: GFS give Short Pump the ole' middle finger. Yes but look at the cutoff. 1/2” in some spot but just a few miles to the nw, 5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I'm way behind on 12/18z runs so nothing important to add. I did poke around with 18z 3k soundings... oh man, there are some SICK periods of snow. Even the sleet is raking everything in its path. Looks like a little instability is showing up around the snow/sleet line when it's rippin. Hopefully a met drops by and explains it better. I see the possibility of thunder in the heavy bands riding the mix line. Who doesnt like thundersleet? 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Don’t recall seeing this from the 3k 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 ^oh man that is NICE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm way behind on 12/18z runs so nothing important to add. I did poke around with 18z 3k soundings... oh man, there are some SICK periods of snow. Even the sleet is raking everything in its path. Looks like a little instability is showing up around the snow/sleet line when it's rippin. Hopefully a met drops by and explains it better. I see the possibility of thunder in the heavy bands riding the mix line. Who doesnt like thundersleet? Thundersleet, the geese probably don't like that at all! May have to get out the spikes here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Sure is nice to get some legit fresh cold to rush in and get established before a storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 30 minutes ago, T. August said: Totally agree, but cut that in half (or a third), and it’s a lil concerning. Yes, I too grow increasingly concerned as the models get better and better for the whole region. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Stormfly said: Thundersleet, the geese probably don't like that at all! May have to get out the spikes here! Geese might get a concussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Yes, I too grow increasingly concerned as the models get better and better for the whole region. GFS, ICON, RGEM, and 3k NAM all have lower precip for the corridor than north or south of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Sure is nice to get some legit fresh cold to rush in and get established before a storm. YES. No anxious thermometer watching this time, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Worth noting that the cold dry air is coming in gangbusters 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm way behind on 12/18z runs so nothing important to add. I did poke around with 18z 3k soundings... oh man, there are some SICK periods of snow. Even the sleet is raking everything in its path. Looks like a little instability is showing up around the snow/sleet line when it's rippin. Hopefully a met drops by and explains it better. I see the possibility of thunder in the heavy bands riding the mix line. Who doesnt like thundersleet? Whatever falls Thursday AM will be ripping into the afternoon. And yes, there's a slight signal for some thunder across central MD between 18-22z. Looks like fun 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Worth noting that the cold dry air is coming in gangbusters Yup. Nothing worse than praying the night before the event that we get the cold air in at 3am when the precip starts at 5 and then waking up to 34/33 and white rain. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Nothing worse than praying the night before the event that we get the cold air in at 3am when the precip starts at 5 and then waking up to 34/33 and white rain. That’s basically been every event down here. Like this setup a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Worth noting that the cold dry air is coming in gangbusters My dew point has already fallen 20 degrees since 4pm 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Nothing worse than praying the night before the event that we get the cold air in at 3am when the precip starts at 5 and then waking up to 34/33 and white rain. Like you ever have to sweat temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Nothing worse than praying the night before the event that we get the cold air in at 3am when the precip starts at 5 and then waking up to 34/33 and white rain. Falling fast here. Below freezing now. My south facing front yard survived the early temp spike. Still have full snow cover. May not get above freezing here until Monday afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 So far I like the trends today for this storm. I will be happy with 1-3''. That's what I expect here anyway. Anything more is a bonus 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Whatever falls Thursday AM will be ripping into the afternoon. And yes, there's a slight signal for some thunder across central MD between 18-22z. Looks like fun How are you doing down there in Texas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, wkd said: How are you doing down there in Texas? Good. Wife and I are fortunate we have had power through all this. We got 6" of snow with temps between 7-9 degrees on Sunday. Everything is at a crawl around here still. Thawing will really commence on Thursday. Texas as a whole got crushed. Easily a top 5 winter storm for these parts. Tons of ice and snow since last Thursday evening. 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Temp has fallen from 45 at 4pm .... to 35 at 6pm. So nice getting some fresh cold air 24 hrs before a storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 23 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Whatever falls Thursday AM will be ripping into the afternoon. And yes, there's a slight signal for some thunder across central MD between 18-22z. Looks like fun You probably just triggered Jim Cantore with the word “Thunder”. Probably on a flight to BWI as I type. Lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: If you're in the mid 20s with moderate precip, it's going to accumulate. Well I was in the mid 20s with Rain on the last storm.. so I am beginning to think that what matters most is whats going on up there 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 20 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Good. Wife and I are fortunate we have had power through all this. We got 6" of snow with temps between 7-9 degrees on Sunday. Everything is at a crawl around here still. Thawing will really commence on Thursday. Texas as a whole got crushed. Easily a top 5 winter storm for these parts. Tons of ice and snow since last Thursday evening. What is the max potential out there for snow? I was looking at the records for Odessa and it seems like 8-10 inches for a storm would be max.. what about Dallas and Houston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Nice improvement on gefs 18z was a much colder run. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said: What is the max potential out there for snow? I was looking at the records for Odessa and it seems like 8-10 inches for a storm would be max.. what about Dallas and Houston? 12-18" is possible here. We almost had that very end of last year, but the TROWAL setup 40 miles to the east and they got 15-18". Our area is great at missing the worst and areas to the northeast are the winners in most winter events. We have our own jackpot crew here too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 17 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said: Temp has fallen from 45 at 4pm .... to 35 at 6pm. So nice getting some fresh cold air 24 hrs before a storm. Dew point has dropped over 20F! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Worth noting that the high was supposed to be near 50 and we only got low 40s along with the temp dropping faster than expected. From my base level understanding this should cool the ground and lead to stuff sticking but for anyone who knows stuff about the weather what would this mean for the storm? Would it change the upper levels some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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