WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Hope the euro stops the drying trend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Well this Stinks - Trends went poorly overnight. Hopeful they stabilize or reverse a little bit today. Starting to get fuel myself based on that correction. Euro has been running cold. Nam has led the way on most systems this year. If the event were imminent I would be happy with the set up for MBY...but this has the Lucy feel on snow. It will be a Significant storm.. But I think deep down we see and know what is happening here. What? How did overnight go poorly? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: What? How did overnight go poorly? The Euro trended worse, the CMC trended worse, the NAM is about the same. In other words if you are a glass half empty type you could say that things are trending towards the NAM. This is at least true for Fairfax county where I live in which is disappointing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: What? How did overnight go poorly? They didn't. Panic for panic's sake. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Well this Stinks - Trends went poorly overnight. Hopeful they stabilize or reverse a little bit today. Starting to get fuel myself based on that correction. Euro has been running cold. Nam has led the way on most systems this year. If the event were imminent I would be happy with the set up for MBY...but this has the Lucy feel on snow. It will be a Significant storm.. But I think deep down we see and know what is happening here. I don't think this is accurate...the trends were for it to be colder and be more of a coastal. The nam is more frozen, the euro was colder and a tad drier the gfs is a bomb the ukie is a bomb the cmc is the same as it always was a gigantic sleet bomb. Not sure there were any bad trends. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Hope the euro stops the drying trend What other model dried? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The euro has seemed to want to suppress/dry things out a bit just to juice them up near game time of late...just keep that in mind too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I do feel that the trends did not go great for now because most showed a colder but more or a sleet bomb solution. Though since it is trending colder this might mean that in the future we will see more snow. That said it did at least for me who is not an optimist after all of the missed storms this year trends did not go great snowfall wise which a lot of people look at. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: The Euro trended worse, the CMC trended worse, the NAM is about the same. In other words if you are a glass half empty type you could say that things are trending towards the NAM. This is at least true for Fairfax county where I live in which is disappointing. The Euro was a little drier. That's it. GFS got better, Absolutely nothing is trending to the NAM. What are you going on about? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: I do feel that the trends did not go great for now because most showed a colder but more or a sleet bomb solution. Though since it is trending colder this might mean that in the future we will see more snow. That said it did at least for me who is not an optimist after all of the missed storms this year trends did not go great snowfall wise which a lot of people look at. Can somebody translate this? 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6z EURO. Basically the same as 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I recall someone important years ago saying the least accurate aspect of models is the QPF output....I'm guessing clearly they generally are too wet but I don't know every bias...hold steady folks something significant is heading this way...and if it doesn't then something insignificant is heading this way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: 6z EURO. Basically the same as 0z. That is a nice qpf stripe really close to D.C. (I won't say imby) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GFS gives the Metros 3 to 8 and the good stuff is near I 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Can somebody translate this? nope. some need to post less and read more. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I do feel that the trends did not go great for now because most showed a colder but more or a sleet bomb solution. Though since it is trending colder this might mean that in the future we will see more snow. That said it did at least for me who is not an optimist after all of the missed storms this year trends did not go great snowfall wise which a lot of people look at. Colder at the surface doesn’t crosswalk to a snowier solution. We are going to flip to non-snow frozen. That’s a given. Those of us close to the cities just have to hope for a front thump of snow before that flip. And, none of that changed w the overnight runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What other model dried? Exactly. And since when is 1 model run considered a trend? I thought it was usually 3 consecutive....in which case the NAM is trending better as lead time lessens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Can somebody translate this? 5 minutes of fame over I hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Can somebody translate this? colder trends, more sleet doe. might end up more snow doe. i doubt it, because i am a negative nancy. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What other model dried? Euro panic in me. Just ignore me when it comes to precip posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Euro panic in me. Just ignore me when it comes to precip posts I thought this thread was supposed to be less banter? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, mappy said: Ava's very early snowfall map: 6-8 along the PA line, 4-6 for Baltimore, 2-4 for DC Big question: Can a 4-6" snow forecast FINALLY yield a warning level result in Baltimore?? Or will the maddening dance of "oh hey we'll snow 4.8" to troll ya" dance continue? Stay tuned...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: colder trends, more sleet doe. might end up more snow doe. i doubt it, because i am a negative nancy. Sums it up. Good job 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This is an improvement from the 0z run with the heavier precip coming in through the DC area. 850s are getting warmish already during this time though. Maybe heavier precip can keep it mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 16 minutes ago, LP08 said: 6z EURO. Basically the same as 0z. You got 0z for comparison? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I'm hugging the NAM. I want 3-5" of sleet. I love love love those kinds of storms. When I first moved here in 2016, a year later, 2017, was my favorite winter storm. 3" of sleet. People here know how to deal with snow mostly but sleet, no. It was hilarious because I suddenly felt like everyone was in my boat, a newbie. People treated it like snow, it looked like snow, covered everything, but it was not snow. The plows came and created these sleet mountains that looked like snow. People tried to back over them with their cars, and it didn't compact down, because it was pure ice. It was chaos in the most hilarious way, car tires sticking up in the air as the cars got stuck on those little snow banks created by the plows. It stayed for SO long, melted so slowly. I absolutely loved it. and that was 3". Nam is showing 4-5" of sleet now. That is exciting to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The Para is my favorite. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I’m the typical Deb Downer and the village idiot (great combination ) but I am excited about this set up. The overrunning should be into a cold airmass and this isn’t a miller B like the overrunning fail from a few weeks ago. We will go over to mix and frankly if that happens after 4 inches or 6 inches probably won’t matter much if we get it solidified into concrete afterwards. Either way could be an impactful and memorable storm. I think we often simply judge storm but snow accumulation which isn’t always the best idea. Interesting setup here. Looking forward to how this evolves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You got 0z for comparison? Thanks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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