ErinInTheSky Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM sleet fest is still on. I'm seriously rooting for this, y'all, over snow. 3"+ of sleet is just way too fun. 3 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Well, here's your relevant NAM trend Check out the trend in low positions (Ohio valley low and coastal). Money. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 ive lost 11 inches since 00z NAM lol 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: NAM sleet fest is still on. I'm seriously rooting for this, y'all, over snow. 3"+ of sleet is just way too fun. stop cheering for sleet. Its a useless precip type. I only like it if we are suppose to get rain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This seems relevant 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where that banding among the boundary sets up likely is mostly snow. In my experience the dynamics and the ability of heavy rates to mix our a small warm layer typically wins in that band. Plus the mid level warm layer typically is where you get the dry slot. So no matter what the guidance says that band is often where the snow/sleet line sets up just south of it. While generally true, the 18z NAM 3k is just a region wide precip show. DC isn't even in the best band, almost everyone is 0.75"+ in that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Va wine country Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Well in fairness this is his opinion of trying to forecast it: In real fairness, that was a joking tweet from him and that was not his real forecast. His real projection from this am was 1-2" snow, 1-2" sleet, and .0.25" freezing rain for Cville area. Reese is the best met at winter weather in the greater Cville area and does a nice job engaging with folks on Twitter and explaining the science for amateurs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: We needed a big shift south though! Because we know the inevitable tomorrow! were getting it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: This seems relevant It looks like 12z was a weird blip. Check this out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: Check out the trend in low positions (Ohio valley low and coastal). Money. That's an incredible drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: While generally true, the 18z NAM 3k is just a region wide precip show. DC isn't even in the best band, almost everyone is 0.75"+ in that time period. Yea in that case it’s harder to pin the exact mix line but if there is a meso banding feature along the front like much guidance hints at my guess is the mix is just south of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Both NAMs still have those 700mb winds screaming in at 90 knots, temp trend in the right direction anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, jayyy said: Woof. That’s a hell of a cut off as shown on the NAM. Certainly a better look with that hot pink running through my house, but not great for I-95 and the metros. Good news is that guidance has been trending colder / snowier and not Vice versa leading up the storm, so there’s still plenty of time to kick the fall line SE another few ticks. My background is more paleontology than meteorology, but I always thought the fall line only moves on a geologic time scale. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 the NAM shows no back end love. It just hates this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 That initial WAA snowband on the 3k NAM was well into PA on 12z and now is just north of DC into MD with the 18z run. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: That initial WAA snowband on the 3k NAM was well into PA on 12z and now is just north of DC into MD with the 18z run. im going to pretend i live in central PA and watching the NAM hopelessy cave to the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Well, here's your relevant NAM trend Two things jump out. Position of the HP keeps pressing SW and wind barbs go nuts that last frame. Gotta think if that’s modeled poorly then temps roast more or it caves south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ji said: isnt it about trends now and not the final forecast? I've always taken the position that it's more about the post-storm measureables than anything. Sure, its nice to enjoy the forecasts and the trends, but models aren't forecasts or trends, they're tools. Tools that are used to create forecasts, and which trend in certain directions as the storm event nears. But I caution you-- Models are not forecasts because they reveal nothing about the future and do not purport to predict the future, so do not fall into that trap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Sterling getting slightly snowier.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The 3K was great for the fall line NW....maybe even for Baltimore. Its close 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Trends trends. We'll be there by 9:30pm fellas. And if not..then 6z. And if not, 12z tomorrow! And if not.... 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: The 3K was great for the fall line NW....maybe even for Baltimore. Its close With that initial WAA band pre-dawn Thursday, we get an extra 2-4", then another ~1" of snow, and then the sleet bomb (maybe 1-2" of sleet?). I'd take that verbatim. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Sterling getting slightly snowier.. Less well NW of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 RGEM colder again this run. More snow before the flip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILIKERAKE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Sterling getting slightly snowier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 RGEM stairstepping down to colder also. Man, we just need the cold push to be 50/70 miles more south 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Sterling getting slightly snowier.. That's worse out this way. Not complaining since it likely factors in an anticipated flip E of the BR which is typically climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Warm Nose said: That's worse out this way. Not complaining since it likely factors in an anticipated flip E of the BR which is typically climo. You know how often they tweak these before game time. I bet it changes 3-4 times before the first flakes come down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 ICON panels still coming out, but it looks pretty darn juiced. Nice to see models not lose any precip with some actually getting wetter as we get towards 40hrs until onset. Gives us a cushion for when/if they lose a bit of juice as they have so far during this winter in short range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 ICON is thumpier...stays snow longer too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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