Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Thursday's system is outside of the Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook, but this shows the potential for cold following the event. Might be a deep winter look if a majority of the subforum avoids rain or temps shooting up on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Ji said: i didnt even know the HRRR went out to 48 hours Runs to 48 at 0z, 6z, 12z, 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: Runs to 48 at 0z, 6z, 12z, 18z that seems unfortunate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Guys, if you are literally starting your post with "BANTER", it will be hidden. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Changes incoming on the NAM, high pressure in a better location. better press of cold at 700/850 at 36 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM is caving like a coal mine. Snow thumb incoming at 30. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: NAM is caving like a coal mine. Snow thumb incoming at 30. Looks like NAM is getting on board -- I will feel better when all the models are on board with giving us the finger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill eps 24 hour trend TREND=FRIEND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM at 42 is a direct hit for DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Pummeled DC and north. Period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I project a big time NAMing run here. Cold aloft and lighter wind vectors bringing in the warmer air in the ML’s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, ForestHillbilly said: Looking like a nothing for DC and NOVA. Remember your climo. Sell appointed snow ball busters are for the trash heap 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: Climo boys We get it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I'm not the best at reading the maps, but so far to me the NAM seems slightly less amped and a ever so slightly more south than 12z. CHO still all sleet verbatim, but I don't buy that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Definitely colder at 42...snow in my fair town 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 @Deck Pic is gonna love this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Wait actually I'm wrong on the juice if you look farther west. There was a kind of a snow hole in WV in prior runs. That's GONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 HGR to OKV already at 0.5" QPF by 12Z Thursday on the 12k NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Pummeled DC and north. Period. Probably depends a lot on which algorithm each site uses. Could be tough snow/sleet until the last minute. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Look at how far south that high is! Get it 150 miles nw and it’s all snow perfection for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Total fold by the “most reliable model this winter” 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Quick flip to sleet, substantial warm nose at 700, but trending better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Definitely colder at 42...snow in my fair town I must be reading it wrong because on WB it looks like maybe an hour of snow followed by all sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Long and short it seems to me that the NAM is trending colder. I think the trajectory of this thing is locked in. All that matters are the 700mb temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM has 850s at -3 to -5 at hr 45, meanwhile 700mb temps are +3. Need to see the charts on that, it's likely not right, but that would be an unholy sleet bomb for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: HGR to OKV already at 0.5" QPF by 12Z Thursday on the 12k NAM. 1.00" + QPF by 15Z. All snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, Ji said: that seems unfortunate Meh. Makes sense. More data collected at those times. Especially 0z/12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: I must be reading it wrong because on WB it looks like maybe an hour of snow followed by all sleet. It's not on Pivotal. Nice hit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 It's worth waiting for the 3km frames to be out. It will handle thermals better than the 12km run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Probably depends a lot on which algorithm each site uses. Could be tough snow/sleet until the last minute. Just an FYI: the different sites do not compute their own instantaneous precip type - that is an output directly out of the models. 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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