poolz1 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: As long we don’t start trending towards some sort of redux of wave 1, wave 2, etc, I am all in for a good 20+ hours of winter weather (mostly snow I hope). yeah....my first thought when it started to look like a two part event was the pause/lull between the two would be where we lose the mids and everyone mixes from that point forward. Doesnt seem to be the case right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 @Bob Chill eps 24 hour trend 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 HRRR has snow for all by 10-12z, kinda light north of DC tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: HRRR has snow for all by 11-12z, kinda light north of DC tho Still out of range for the HRRR but nice to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: HRRR has snow for all by 10-12z, kinda light north of DC tho how good is the HRRR 100 hours out? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Watch coming out shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 WE're under a watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 See. Told you all, eventually they'd go up. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Still out of range for the HRRR but nice to know. Hey nothing else to look at right now...I was right about the watches going up within the hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 It's not legit until 5 people post the full watch details from NWS 2 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: HRRR has snow for all by 10-12z, kinda light north of DC tho Yeah, I guess the main takeaway is that it starts everyone EZF north as snow. Wave 2 looked pretty potent but obviously it doesn't go out to that range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2-4 on the ground for pretty much everyone by 17z on HRRR...DC mixing, still snow Balt-north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Hey nothing else to look at right now...I was right about the watches going up within the hour I wasn’t being sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 #WheresRonPaul 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: I wasn’t being sarcastic. I know...probably should have responded to Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: WE're under a watch same excitment as when i was 12 smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Can someone post the full watch text please 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: Can someone post the full watch text please URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 250 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 DCZ001-MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-016-503>508-VAZ052>054-506- 170400- /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0008.210218T0800Z-210219T1100Z/ District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun- 250 PM EST Tue Feb 16 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Total snow accumulations of 5 or more inches and total ice accumulations of a quarter inch or more are possible. * WHERE...The Washington, Baltimore, and Fredericksburg Metropolitan areas. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Something to watch with this storm's development is potential for explosive development as that extreme cold air mass over Texas has pushed out over most of the Gulf of Mexico, at this point the front runs from between Veracruz and Tampico in eastern Mexico across the Gulf at around 25 N towards southwest Florida. Models are showing development somewhat further north than the best thermal gradients which implies there could be a deeper low starting from a more southerly point of origin. I don't think this would affect the eventual track as depicted but it might provide an even stronger low running along that track. Here's a buoy located in the central Gulf at about the longitude of New Orleans, with full meteorological reporting. The east Gulf buoy about 240 miles to its east no longer has wind direction but you can surmise from wave directions what is happening there, even that location is now behind the advancing front. (second link) https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KATP https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 With this cold air over much of the Gulf, lift potential in the subtropical jet region will be considerable. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: Can someone post the full watch text please The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Washington DC Metropolitan Area. 2 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Roger Smith said: Something to watch with this storm's development is potential for explosive development as that extreme cold air mass over Texas has pushed out over most of the Gulf of Mexico, at this point the front runs from between Veracruz and Tampico in eastern Mexico across the Gulf at around 26 N towards southwest Florida. Models are showing development somewhat further north than the best thermal gradients which implies there could be a deeper low starting from a more southerly point of origin. I don't think this would affect the eventual track as depicted but it might provide an even stronger low running along that track. Here's a buoy located in the central Gulf at about the longitude of New Orleans, with full meteorological reporting. The east Gulf buoy about 240 miles to its east no longer has wind direction but you can surmise from wave directions what is happening there, even that location is now behind the advancing front. (second link) https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KATP https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 With this cold air over much of the Gulf, lift potential in the subtropical jet region will be considerable. I'm still waiting for my predicted blizzards from the past three storms. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NovaWahoo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Monitor the latest forecasts. Good job everyone. You're doing your part. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Gotta love these automated forecasts. Thursday will bring rain with a high of 31! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Roger Smith said: Something to watch with this storm's development is potential for explosive development as that extreme cold air mass over Texas has pushed out over most of the Gulf of Mexico, at this point the front runs from between Veracruz and Tampico in eastern Mexico across the Gulf at around 26 N towards southwest Florida. Models are showing development somewhat further north than the best thermal gradients which implies there could be a deeper low starting from a more southerly point of origin. I don't think this would affect the eventual track as depicted but it might provide an even stronger low running along that track. Here's a buoy located in the central Gulf at about the longitude of New Orleans, with full meteorological reporting. The east Gulf buoy about 240 miles to its east no longer has wind direction but you can surmise from wave directions what is happening there, even that location is now behind the advancing front. (second link) https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KATP https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 With this cold air over much of the Gulf, lift potential in the subtropical jet region will be considerable. I'm hoping for a track from Texarkana to Short Pump 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Can someone post the full watch text please 100 times 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This is the second storm this year that I've noticed has shown that 'crab claw' look that seems to have precip avoiding the cities for a while... weird 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 ok...we can start a real storm thread now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Something to watch with this storm's development is potential for explosive development as that extreme cold air mass over Texas has pushed out over most of the Gulf of Mexico, at this point the front runs from between Veracruz and Tampico in eastern Mexico across the Gulf at around 26 N towards southwest Florida. Models are showing development somewhat further north than the best thermal gradients which implies there could be a deeper low starting from a more southerly point of origin. I don't think this would affect the eventual track as depicted but it might provide an even stronger low running along that track. Here's a buoy located in the central Gulf at about the longitude of New Orleans, with full meteorological reporting. The east Gulf buoy about 240 miles to its east no longer has wind direction but you can surmise from wave directions what is happening there, even that location is now behind the advancing front. (second link) https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KATP https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 With this cold air over much of the Gulf, lift potential in the subtropical jet region will be considerable. Don't you ever change. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Southern stream moisture will get drawn into this system, and with Canadian high pressure to the north, that provides a good setup for wintry precipitation. There is an anomalous upper- level ridge over the southeastern CONUS, so that does favor a setup for a wintry mix for most areas vs. all snow. Precipitation is most likely to overspread the area from southwest to northeast late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. A potent jetmax along with southern stream moisture suggests that moderate to heavy precipitation is possible shortly after the onset. This can be seen in most guidance in the form of a strong jetmax at the mid-levels that has origin from the Gulf of Mexico. There is still some uncertainty as to exactly where this band of heavier precipitation sets up. Temperature profiles do appear cold enough for snow at the onset for most areas, therefore, significant snowfall is possible before changing over the a wintry mix. The best chance for the heavier snow appears to be across the northwestern half of the CWA (where colder temps aloft will hold on longer, and where most of the guidance has the original band of heavier snow setting up). A dry slot may cause precipitation rates to decrease some Thursday afternoon, but more overrunning Thursday night will cause more wintry precipitation to develop. With warmer air aloft, sleet and freezing rain will become more likely during this time (although snow will hold for a while in the Allegheny Mountains and Potomac Highlands). Significant ice accumulation from freezing rain is possible, especially near and east of Interstate 95 into central Virginia. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the entire CWA for these reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, caviman2201 said: This is the second storm this year that I've noticed has shown that 'crab claw' look that seems to have precip avoiding the cities for a while... weird i didnt even know the HRRR went out to 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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