DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: Gotta love it... Go back and find his post about h54 (EHoffman). Top notch entertainment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Ha. It has been a bit since we've been that cold. For sure. I expect that’s overdone, but teens for lows seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: Gotta love it... This is straight up banter so last thing I'll say on this, but we were referring to different panels and I even said earlier that the front end thump was way juicer on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill clown comp Okay I cannot resist this small bit of banter: For those who grew up with the Pokémon games (especially the first few generations)...doesn't this animation look just like when your Pokémon evolves? Lol Okay, weather related: Nice south shift here! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 CWG map: 9 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Pixee said: Somebody's stuff is really sagging there! this storm moved so slow it ends up giving us rain. Mix for PSU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: For sure. I expect that’s overdone, but teens for lows seems likely. I think we can do it. Our most recent single-digits cold snap isn't actually all that long ago (Jan 31, 2019). 10 at DCA, 6 at my house, probably colder everywhere else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: I think we can do it. Our most recent single-digits cold snap isn't actually all that long ago (Jan 31, 2019). 10 at DCA, 6 at my house, probably colder everywhere else. Didn’t realize it was so recent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 WBAL's favorite model, the RPM, has EZF and even St. Mary's City starting as snow for a couple of hours. Definitely a colder tick across the board. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 we have been tracking stuff since about Jan 20th not stop.....27 days of tracking winter weather 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Ji said: we have been tracking stuff since about Jan 20th not stop.....27 days of tracking winter weather And I have 7" to show for it. The time spent per inch of snow ratio is...unfavorable. 4 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: we have been tracking stuff since about Jan 20th not stop.....27 days of tracking winter weather Yup. This time last year we were chasing D15 phantom patter changes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The storm is becoming a two parter in a way. Maybe we can nail both parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we have been tracking stuff since about Jan 20th not stop.....27 days of tracking winter weather Well just look who started the long range thread immediately prior. Not bragging or anything lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: And I have 7" to show for it. The time spent per inch of snow ratio is...unfavorable. yea...thats actually 7 inches more than you usually get...but yea.....there has been so many threats that the ratio is actually worse this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I'll feel better when there are no more outliers.. .this year, an outlier has become the truth. Way too much model snow this year vs reality. Models have been overestimating precip all season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 12z suite was solid overall from I-66 north. Two days ago we were staring at a warm rain. Would like to see the NAM twins start going colder/wetter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 For our SW members: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 EPS colder and snowier for just about everyone than 6Z. This panel is money. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Didn’t realize it was so recent. We were too busy commiserating the failure of the snow pattern to notice the brief cold snap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: EPS colder and snowier for just about everyone than 6Z. This panel is money. It looks good, but isn’t the concern for the cities that temps are too warm at other levels besides 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 EPS is really nice, colder across the board and a couple of double digit hits even in to the beltway and I-95. FWIW, since we're at about HR48 to 55 prior to start, this is probably the last useful run of the ensembles because they tend to cluster inside HR 48. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, jaydreb said: It looks good, but isn’t the concern for the cities that temps are too warm at other levels besides 850? Definitely. That panel is wetter than 6z. I am resigned to the fact that we will mix (and probably mix earlier than models suggest) but everything on the EPS looked a hair colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 25 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: And I have 7" to show for it. The time spent per inch of snow ratio is...unfavorable. I do wonder what the results this year would have been say 30 years ago in DC. It’s a Nina with a generally mediocre pac base state irrespective of enso so expecting a 1996 or 2010 type result from the blocking would be ambitious in the least. But up here for example, the results have at least been more in line with what you would expect from a great blocking winter with mediocre “other” factors. I’m very likely to end to above climo snowfall (only 5” away with a LOT of winter to go up here). Unless we get a 1958 type finish it won’t rival the top 10% type winters but it’s likely to end up in that very good category just below that. Obviously I do better then DC but I’m talking wrt climo. Historically when I finish above climo so does DC. I’ve noticed more of a decoupling of that in recent years though where not only do I do better in raw numbers but I also am doing much better wrt climo some years. I wonder how much of that is the elephant in the room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The storm is becoming a two parter in a way. Maybe we can nail both parts. Agreed....also, the start time seems to be getting earlier with the precip racing out in front and end time getting pushed back with that second part. Getting close to a legit 20-24hours of snow for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Agreed....also, the start time seems to be getting earlier with the precip racing out in front and end time getting pushed back with that second part. Getting close to a legit 20-24hours of snow for some areas. As long we don’t start trending towards some sort of redux of wave 1, wave 2, etc, I am all in for a good 20+ hours of winter weather (mostly snow I hope). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I believe this to be our best shot of the year. A lot going for us on this one, particularly the CAD and the upstream strength of the airmass, with good high position. Plenty of lift in the -10 to -20 layer and icing potential could be significant with temps in the 20s. Significant impacts to travel, power grid etc on this one. Not dealing with a transfer, marginal temps like the others. 29 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Interesting panel on run-to-run 850s in the EPS... Significantly colder 850s at the end of the event supports some back-end snow 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: I believe this to be our best shot of the year. A lot going for us on this one, particularly the CAD and the upstream strength of the airmass, with good high position. Plenty of lift in the -10 to -20 layer and icing potential could be significant with temps in the 20s. Significant impacts to travel, power grid etc on this one. Not dealing with a transfer, marginal temps like the others. You've been bearish all year, so this is exciting to see. What are your thoughts on the NAM being quicker than everything else? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I do wonder what the results this year would have been say 30 years ago in DC. It’s a Nina with a generally mediocre pac base state irrespective of enso so expecting a 1996 or 2010 type result from the blocking would be ambitious in the least. But up here for example, the results have at least been more in line with what you would expect from a great blocking winter with mediocre “other” factors. I’m very likely to end to above climo snowfall (only 5” away with a LOT of winter to go up here). Unless we get a 1958 type finish it won’t rival the top 10% type winters but it’s likely to end up in that very good category just below that. Obviously I do better then DC but I’m talking wrt climo. Historically when I finish above climo so does DC. I’ve noticed more of a decoupling of that in recent years though where not only do I do better in raw numbers but I also am doing much better wrt climo some years. I wonder how much of that is the elephant in the room. I think it's a super interesting topic, but it totally makes sense that even modest overall warming trends over the past ~30 years would trigger less frozen events in mediocre setups down around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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