osfan24 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Oh boy, that was a really rough 6z run. Has the NAM done it again?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO poor crofton. One dude might stroke out seeing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I thought it wouldn't happen we were trending good but the latest Euro is not great to put it lightly. I sure hope it's not a trend because if this storm falls apart less than 24 hours from start I don't know what I will do. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO Any additional snow on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, H2O said: poor crofton. One dude might stroke out seeing this I'm use to it. I'm chasing spring at this point so no longer care. Another impressive win for the NAM. It's been deadly accurate this season. Pretty amazing actually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO Do you have a 10:1 map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Do you have a 10:1 map? Or the precip map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I'm use to it. I'm chasing spring at this point so no longer care. Another impressive win for the NAM. It's been deadly accurate this season. Pretty amazing actually. wait, the storm already happened? man, must have slept through that. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Oh yuck at the 6z suite. I even lost my NAM sleet bomb and only get like 1" of sleet from it. This wasn't just models caving towards the NAM, it was a retreat by the NAM as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, mappy said: wait, the storm already happened? man, must have slept through that. Captain Morgan is a hell of a drug. I slept through it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Captain Morgan is a hell of a drug. I slept through it too pfft im classier than captain morgan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Or the precip map? The only map that has loaded is the Kuchera. Every other panel is stuck at 23 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 WB is sporadically updating this am so can’t upload the total precipitation maps etc. for 6Z EURO, probably just as well... guess the new weather rule is to look at the 3K NAM 24 hours out and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Full run 6z It's a little better but still a bit of a trend happening. Hopefully, we can reverse it at 12z. NAM being so far north with the heaviest axis of snow still is a pretty big red flag, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I created an obs thread for when we need it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, nj2va said: I created an obs thread for when we need it: ah. randy was going to make a new thread whenever he woke up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 06z Euro is still a high impact winter storm with very cold temps. Just more sleet and some freezing rain in dc rather than snow. This time it won’t be rain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, chris21 said: 06z Euro is still a high impact winter storm with very cold temps. Just more sleet and some freezing rain in dc rather than snow. This time it won’t be rain... I was thinking the same thing. Anything is preferable to white rain and 35 degrees. This will almost certainly at least start off white for us. Should be fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, mappy said: ah. randy was going to make a new thread whenever he woke up... Ok, I’ll just delete it. Actually, I don’t know how and people are already posting obs...just use that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Ok, I’ll just delete it. Actually, I don’t know how and people are already posting obs...just use that? ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: Ok, I’ll just delete it. Actually, I don’t know how and people are already posting obs...just use that? Im going to close it for now until we get closer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 It’s not even trending north. It’s trending warmer. It’s still a perfect track with an Arctic high in place. Dunno what to say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Long range 12z HRRR has snow breaking out in DC by 5a, with heavy snow bands across NOVA/DC at 13z. Mix line is EZF/south. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 58 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Oh boy, that was a really rough 6z run. Has the NAM done it again?? The NAM has - without question - performed the worst of any model for this entire threat. If one more person talks about how the NAM has "done it again," I'm gonna lose it - lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, TowsonWeather said: The NAM has - without question - performed the worst of any model for this entire threat. If one more person talks about how the NAM has "done it again," I'm gonna lose it - lol You are 100% correct. 24 hours ago the nam was off on a tangent. It wasn't even close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: The NAM has - without question - performed the worst of any model for this entire threat. If one more person talks about how the NAM has "done it again," I'm gonna lose it - lol Wait what? The NAM has been showing, consistently since the first run at range, that the sleet line will be well into Maryland very early. The Euro, GFS, etc have shown on the other hand have been, even as early as yesterday, putting out sleet lines in Virginia and dropping 8+" of snow region wide. Don't even get me started at what the Euro and GFS were saying when the NAM was "at range". The NAM has been great IMO, it was great on other storms and in this case, it looks like models are caving towards the NAM here as well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s not even trending north. It’s trending warmer. It’s still a perfect track with an Arctic high in place. Dunno what to say. Still looks real cold at the surface... do you mean upstairs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Its obviously at range but the HRRR is a weenie run...6" for a lot of us by noon. Hopefully its not just playing catch up 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s not even trending north. It’s trending warmer. It’s still a perfect track with an Arctic high in place. Dunno what to say. Euro doesn't seem to show much sleet or freezing rain though is it just poor rates and crappy flakes not accumulating as much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: Wait what? The NAM has been showing, consistently since the first run at range, that the Sleet line will be well into Maryland very early. The Euro, GFS, etc have shown on the other hand have been, even as early as yesterday, putting out sleet lines in Virginia and dropping 8+" of snow region wide. Don't even get me started at what the Euro and GFS were saying when the NAM was "at range". The NAM has been great IMO, it was great on other storms and in this case, it looks like models are caving towards the NAM here as well. It could be right but for the wrong reasons lol. The Nam had the storm track way west up until yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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