February 18/19th Storm Potential

[Yeoman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's a step back. 

keeps ticking

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said:

Suppression is always the fear with this system... look at the RGEM and the UKMET, 2 of the top 5 best performing models and their solutions.

Somebody needs to suppress your posts. 

[Bob Chill]

I often wish my ctrl+alt+del worked on other peoples computers

Obligatory analysis. It will sleet more than a little in Rockville

[clskinsfan]

0Z Nam Cobb date:

DCA:

210218/1200Z  36  05007KT  26.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    7:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210218/1300Z  37  05009KT  26.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113    7:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17  100|  0|  0
210218/1400Z  38  04010KT  27.4F  SNPL    1:1| 0.1|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.089    5:1|  1.3|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.26   16| 84|  0
210218/1500Z  39  06010KT  27.9F  SNPL    3:1| 0.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.045    5:1|  1.4|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.30   54| 46|  0
210218/1600Z  40  06007KT  27.2F  SNPL    1:1| 0.2|| 0.33|| 0.00|| 0.194    3:1|  1.6|| 0.52|| 0.00|| 0.49   16| 84|  0
210218/1700Z  41  02007KT  28.3F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.21|| 0.07|| 0.171    3:1|  1.6|| 0.73|| 0.07|| 0.67    0| 63| 37
210218/1800Z  42  36006KT  27.8F  SNOW    7:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.212    4:1|  3.1|| 0.73|| 0.07|| 0.88  100|  0|  0

IAD:

210218/1100Z  35  06005KT  26.0F  SNOW   15:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084   15:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
210218/1200Z  36  05007KT  25.8F  SNOW   12:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148   13:1|  3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210218/1300Z  37  05008KT  25.6F  SNOW    8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114   11:1|  3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35  100|  0|  0
210218/1400Z  38  05009KT  25.4F  SNPL    2:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.111    9:1|  4.2|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.46   45| 55|  0
210218/1500Z  39  06008KT  26.3F  SNPL    6:1| 0.4|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.067    9:1|  4.6|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.52   77| 23|  0
210218/1600Z  40  05005KT  26.0F  SNOW    8:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.174    9:1|  6.0|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.70  100|  0|  0
210218/1700Z  41  36006KT  26.1F  SNPL    9:1| 1.6|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.175    9:1|  7.6|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.87   80| 20|  0
210218/1800Z  42  36005KT  26.1F  SNOW    5:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.201    8:1|  8.6|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 1.07  100|  0|  0

BWI:

210218/1200Z  36  05007KT  26.1F  SNOW   12:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086   12:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210218/1300Z  37  05009KT  26.0F  SNOW    8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111   10:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
210218/1400Z  38  05009KT  25.8F  SNPL    8:1| 1.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.121    9:1|  2.9|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.32   86| 14|  0
210218/1500Z  39  06010KT  27.4F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.18|| 0.00|| 0.090    9:1|  2.9|| 0.21|| 0.00|| 0.41    8| 92|  0
210218/1600Z  40  06007KT  26.9F  SNOW    9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154    9:1|  4.3|| 0.21|| 0.00|| 0.56  100|  0|  0
210218/1700Z  41  05006KT  27.4F  SNPL    1:1| 0.1|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.172    7:1|  4.5|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 0.73   14| 86|  0
210218/1800Z  42  02008KT  27.6F  SNPL   10:1| 1.6|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.163    7:1|  6.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.90   80| 20|  0

MRB:

210218/1000Z  34  08006KT  24.9F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    9:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
210218/1100Z  35  08006KT  24.9F  SNOW   11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083   11:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
210218/1200Z  36  07008KT  24.5F  SNOW   10:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096   11:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210218/1300Z  37  08008KT  24.2F  SNOW   13:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099   11:1|  3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29  100|  0|  0
210218/1400Z  38  07008KT  24.2F  SNOW   14:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.228   13:1|  6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51  100|  0|  0
210218/1500Z  39  06008KT  24.0F  SNOW   14:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088   13:1|  7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60  100|  0|  0
210218/1600Z  40  08006KT  24.0F  SNOW   10:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.178   12:1|  9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78  100|  0|  0
210218/1700Z  41  11004KT  24.3F  SNOW    7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.185   11:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96  100|  0|  0
210218/1800Z  42  10006KT  25.1F  SNPL    9:1| 2.0|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.228   11:1| 12.7|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 1.19   75| 25|  0

WOO:

210218/0900Z  33  11004KT  23.6F  SNOW   15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   15:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
210218/1000Z  34  08003KT  23.8F  SNOW   12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126   12:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14  100|  0|  0
210218/1100Z  35  06004KT  23.6F  SNOW   14:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.190   13:1|  4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33  100|  0|  0
210218/1200Z  36  06006KT  23.1F  SNOW   14:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.175   14:1|  6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210218/1300Z  37  07005KT  22.5F  SNOW   11:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.172   13:1|  8.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67  100|  0|  0
210218/1400Z  38  06006KT  22.0F  SNOW   12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114   13:1| 10.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79  100|  0|  0
210218/1500Z  39  06005KT  21.6F  SNOW    9:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124   12:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91  100|  0|  0
210218/1600Z  40  05003KT  21.8F  SNOW   11:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.147   12:1| 12.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.06  100|  0|  0
210218/1700Z  41  04005KT  21.5F  SNPL    6:1| 1.2|| 0.18|| 0.00|| 0.204   11:1| 14.0|| 0.18|| 0.00|| 1.26   55| 45|  0
210218/1800Z  42  09004KT  21.8F  SNPL    3:1| 1.0|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.330    9:1| 15.0|| 0.49|| 0.00|| 1.59   53| 47|  0

[Deck Pic]

GFS is just plain goofy....

[hobbes9]

While waiting on the 0z GFS, I haven't found anything else that puts things side-by-side like this. Helps compare the models QPF outputs (as I've always been a visual person).

[Baltimorewx]

3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

GFS is just plain goofy....

Goofy as in it won’t freaking load hr 42 lol

[Baltimorewx]

Yeah the GFS kinda stinks in terms of snowfall. Lighter push in. Mix comes in fast

[Hypothetical 240 hour snow]

NCEP models with a poor thermal evolution... the NAM is overly aggressive with the 700mb jet/warm advection, while the GFS is for lack of a technical term... just weird with random isothermal layers and phantom regions of ascent and dynamic cooling causing sleet to change back to snow etc.

[nj2va]

Pivotal has the Para out to Hour 42 (18z Thursday).  DC looks to stay all snow through then.  About 0.7” QPF has fallen.  

Waiting for the rest of the run but seems like it will have the two wave idea too.

[SnowCane]

GFS looks good to me. Nice thump of snow, followed by ice.  Overall a high impact winter event so can’t complain. 

[clskinsfan]

The GFS is obviously jumpy with precip type. But it is in line for total QPF with the rest of guidance:

[snowfan]

Para has the wave 2 like it’s old man. Goes til Friday morning. 

[Amped]

SLP is further south and weaker every run.  Sleet snow line trended north likely due to mid level lift or lack there of only.

[Deck Pic]

DCA flips at around hour 40, then back to snow at 45, and then back to sleet....weird

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE you got your friend Para back 

[Deck Pic]

[Hypothetical 240 hour snow]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

SLP is further south and weaker every run.  Sleet snow line trended north likely due to mid level lift only.

The antithesis of you username is what we all fear, and your observation about the SLP trending further south and weaker only supports that. Those of us near or north of 95 are starting to sweat.

 

To clarify, we have some wiggle room, but we need the south trend to stabilize.

[psuhoffman]

@Deck Pic That struck me as one of those "weird" runs the GFS spits out sometimes that you just have to toss.  Not even necessarily saying its final results wrt snowfall is all that wrong...just the way it gets there.  

[SnowCane]

Just now, Hypothetical 240 hour snow said:

The antithesis of you username is what we all fear, and your observation about the SLP trending further south and weaker only supports that. Those of us near or north of 95 are starting to sweat.

You should probably stop saying “we” and “us” when referring to literally yourself only. 

[Wetbulbs88]

16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

0Z Nam Cobb date:

DCA:

210218/1200Z  36  05007KT  26.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    7:1|  0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210218/1300Z  37  05009KT  26.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113    7:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17  100|  0|  0
210218/1400Z  38  04010KT  27.4F  SNPL    1:1| 0.1|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.089    5:1|  1.3|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.26   16| 84|  0
210218/1500Z  39  06010KT  27.9F  SNPL    3:1| 0.1|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.045    5:1|  1.4|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.30   54| 46|  0
210218/1600Z  40  06007KT  27.2F  SNPL    1:1| 0.2|| 0.33|| 0.00|| 0.194    3:1|  1.6|| 0.52|| 0.00|| 0.49   16| 84|  0
210218/1700Z  41  02007KT  28.3F  ZRPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.21|| 0.07|| 0.171    3:1|  1.6|| 0.73|| 0.07|| 0.67    0| 63| 37
210218/1800Z  42  36006KT  27.8F  SNOW    7:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.212    4:1|  3.1|| 0.73|| 0.07|| 0.88  100|  0|  0

IAD:

210218/1100Z  35  06005KT  26.0F  SNOW   15:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084   15:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08  100|  0|  0
210218/1200Z  36  05007KT  25.8F  SNOW   12:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148   13:1|  3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210218/1300Z  37  05008KT  25.6F  SNOW    8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114   11:1|  3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35  100|  0|  0
210218/1400Z  38  05009KT  25.4F  SNPL    2:1| 0.3|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.111    9:1|  4.2|| 0.12|| 0.00|| 0.46   45| 55|  0
210218/1500Z  39  06008KT  26.3F  SNPL    6:1| 0.4|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.067    9:1|  4.6|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.52   77| 23|  0
210218/1600Z  40  05005KT  26.0F  SNOW    8:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.174    9:1|  6.0|| 0.15|| 0.00|| 0.70  100|  0|  0
210218/1700Z  41  36006KT  26.1F  SNPL    9:1| 1.6|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.175    9:1|  7.6|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.87   80| 20|  0
210218/1800Z  42  36005KT  26.1F  SNOW    5:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.201    8:1|  8.6|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 1.07  100|  0|  0

BWI:

210218/1200Z  36  05007KT  26.1F  SNOW   12:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.086   12:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210218/1300Z  37  05009KT  26.0F  SNOW    8:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111   10:1|  1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20  100|  0|  0
210218/1400Z  38  05009KT  25.8F  SNPL    8:1| 1.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.121    9:1|  2.9|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.32   86| 14|  0
210218/1500Z  39  06010KT  27.4F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.18|| 0.00|| 0.090    9:1|  2.9|| 0.21|| 0.00|| 0.41    8| 92|  0
210218/1600Z  40  06007KT  26.9F  SNOW    9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.154    9:1|  4.3|| 0.21|| 0.00|| 0.56  100|  0|  0
210218/1700Z  41  05006KT  27.4F  SNPL    1:1| 0.1|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.172    7:1|  4.5|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 0.73   14| 86|  0
210218/1800Z  42  02008KT  27.6F  SNPL   10:1| 1.6|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.163    7:1|  6.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.90   80| 20|  0

MRB:

210218/1000Z  34  08006KT  24.9F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    9:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
210218/1100Z  35  08006KT  24.9F  SNOW   11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083   11:1|  1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09  100|  0|  0
210218/1200Z  36  07008KT  24.5F  SNOW   10:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096   11:1|  2.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210218/1300Z  37  08008KT  24.2F  SNOW   13:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099   11:1|  3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29  100|  0|  0
210218/1400Z  38  07008KT  24.2F  SNOW   14:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.228   13:1|  6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51  100|  0|  0
210218/1500Z  39  06008KT  24.0F  SNOW   14:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088   13:1|  7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.60  100|  0|  0
210218/1600Z  40  08006KT  24.0F  SNOW   10:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.178   12:1|  9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.78  100|  0|  0
210218/1700Z  41  11004KT  24.3F  SNOW    7:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.185   11:1| 10.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.96  100|  0|  0
210218/1800Z  42  10006KT  25.1F  SNPL    9:1| 2.0|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.228   11:1| 12.7|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 1.19   75| 25|  0

WOO:

210218/0900Z  33  11004KT  23.6F  SNOW   15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   15:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0
210218/1000Z  34  08003KT  23.8F  SNOW   12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.126   12:1|  1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14  100|  0|  0
210218/1100Z  35  06004KT  23.6F  SNOW   14:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.190   13:1|  4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33  100|  0|  0
210218/1200Z  36  06006KT  23.1F  SNOW   14:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.175   14:1|  6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
210218/1300Z  37  07005KT  22.5F  SNOW   11:1| 1.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.172   13:1|  8.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.67  100|  0|  0
210218/1400Z  38  06006KT  22.0F  SNOW   12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114   13:1| 10.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79  100|  0|  0
210218/1500Z  39  06005KT  21.6F  SNOW    9:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124   12:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91  100|  0|  0
210218/1600Z  40  05003KT  21.8F  SNOW   11:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.147   12:1| 12.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.06  100|  0|  0
210218/1700Z  41  04005KT  21.5F  SNPL    6:1| 1.2|| 0.18|| 0.00|| 0.204   11:1| 14.0|| 0.18|| 0.00|| 1.26   55| 45|  0
210218/1800Z  42  09004KT  21.8F  SNPL    3:1| 1.0|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.330    9:1| 15.0|| 0.49|| 0.00|| 1.59   53| 47|  0

Interesting. DCA looks better (maybe) than BWI

[WEATHER53]

The high pressure looks really good, finally not so Far East, 30.40 into PA is great for us. 

[Wetbulbs88]

4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

DCA flips at around hour 40, then back to snow at 45, and then back to sleet....weird

NAM isn't too different fwiw

[psuhoffman]

para has that wave on Friday evening like the RGEM...hits southeast VA and the southern Delmarva...but its something new to keep an eye on.  The trough is still hanging out to our west...the RGEM and Para decide to take a trailing vort and dig and amplify the trough before it kicks through.  That is not impossible.  LONG shot...the baroclinic zone will be pretty far off the coast by then...but if the h5 trough cam amplify and go negative its not impossible.   

[psuhoffman]

Para has the two wave idea also... but its NICE with wave 2...gets good snow into DC with that even.  This is becoming more complicated, but there is a path to a big win here if we can stick both waves.  

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Para has the two wave idea also... but its NICE with wave 2...gets good snow into DC with that even.  This is becoming more complicated, but there is a path to a big win here if we can stick both waves.  

Got any panels or other stats? TT doesn't show the para for some reason. 

[psuhoffman]

CMC goes for the full 3 wave solution like the RGEM and PARA almost did...gets some decent snow NW of 95 with wave 2 then a NICE hit for DC with wave 3 Friday Afternoon and Evening! 

[Ji]

12 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Para has the wave 2 like it’s old man. Goes til Friday morning. 

south riding for the win

[Wetbulbs88]

Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

Got any panels or other stats? TT doesn't show the para for some reason. 

 

 

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Para has the two wave idea also... but its NICE with wave 2...gets good snow into DC with that even.  This is becoming more complicated, but there is a path to a big win here if we can stick both waves.  

Wait nvm found it on pivotal. Wow the para is wayyy better. How has it been performing compared to the standard?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Got any panels or other stats? TT doesn't show the para for some reason. 

its on pivotal 

Models: GFSv16 — Pivotal Weather