WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: I think we have an evolving situation with the back end. Euro now has 4"for southern DE. That dead zone is kind of brutal, but will probably change. Quickly becoming something of a two part storm. We might just hit both before it’s over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Quickly becoming something of a two part storm. We might just hit both before it’s over. Looks like it. I just hope I can get in on the goods of one or both. Kind of looking betwixt and between here for the snowy parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The Euro is still pretty new to the 18z model game. So we have to take that into consideration...I’ll see myself out. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I think we got it after the 20th time Lol! If I say it enough maybe it will happen. Like let me just preemptively embrace the NAM as my model lord and savior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Drier...but still a pretty good run...not any significant changesFreaking off runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 ??? What a disaster. Too much blue in Loudoun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 26 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said: CWG up their totals to 4-8 with 2-4 in the bust range. 5-10 over NW burbs. 8 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I’m a fan of those guys but I will be shocked if that forecast verifies for DCA. I'm not seeing that anywhere atm, but if that's true it would be an extremely bullish forecast for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18z Euro fr rain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 19 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: There is little to no ice in Germantown There is some. They lose 850s for 6 hours on the high res maps. It’s super close but since there is likely a small warmer layer somewhere other then exactly 850 we can assume it’s not snow. And that period is a decent chunk of precip. That said the kuchera maps seem overly conservative. I think because this storm has fairly high thicknesses and I think kuchera factors that in its being overly pessimistic. Ratios won’t be high but not as low as it’s going where it has like 8-1 with all levels sub zero and cold ground. That’s too low imo. It wasn’t a horrible run but it was worse then 12z and the runt of 18z. It didn’t trend north though. Just dryer. Cut down on snow up in PA also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 38 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Drier...but still a pretty good run...not any significant changes Freaking off runs I guess tonight will be the typical Ji pre-storm meltdown? Can’t wait to read it later! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 31 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: ??? What a disaster. Too much blue in Loudoun Just not your year man...sorry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I mean that’s a far cry from that storm vista map. And it makes a lot more sense right..which I why I said entertainment purposes and suggested we wait for Kuchera 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: 18z Euro fr rain? I gotchu 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 34 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: ??? What a disaster. Too much blue in Loudoun It helps to wait until a storm is over before posting snow maps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is some. They lose 850s for 6 hours on the high res maps. It’s super close but since there is likely a small warmer layer somewhere other then exactly 850 we can assume it’s not snow. And that period is a decent chunk of precip. That said the kuchera maps seem overly conservative. I think because this storm has fairly high thicknesses and I think kuchera factors that in its being overly pessimistic. Ratios won’t be high but not as low as it’s going where it has like 8-1 with all levels sub zero and cold ground. That’s too low imo. It wasn’t a horrible run but it was worse then 12z and the runt of 18z. It didn’t trend north though. Just dryer. Cut down on snow up in PA also! I don't think weatherbell has access to soundings...could be wrong..they're relegated to the same levels as the rest of us, and the rest is extrapolated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: right..which I why I said entertainment purposes and suggested we wait for Kuchera Ah c'mon...you know that fine print isn't gonna get read on here, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Did the 18z Para have a malfunction? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 One big difference with the 3km NAM is the positioning of the high. No bueno 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: I think we have an evolving situation with the back end. Euro now has 4"for southern DE. That dead zone is kind of brutal, but will probably change. Some how Talbot County always maximizes the dead zone, not exactly sure what factors cause that to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: One big difference with the 3km NAM is the positioning of the high. No bueno This run came out 5 hours ago 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ji said: 42 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: ??? What a disaster. Too much blue in Loudoun Lol so 4-6” instead of rain you were expecting a few days ago is a disaster? Why must you always ruin it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: This run came out 5 hours ago It has had the best handle on recent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Did the 18z Para have a malfunction? It’s on pivotal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It has had the best handle on recent storms. Yes, but let's wait for the new nam run in about an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 How’s the Good For Snow looking this eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: One big difference with the 3km NAM is the positioning of the high. No bueno I don’t understand this post. The high is is in pretty good spot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: It’s on pivotal It never came out on WB at 18z. What does it look like? It was my baby, but I am sure it betrayed me. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: I don’t understand this post. The high is is in pretty good spot. Some people only look for the little L. This map shows the pressures a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: I don’t understand this post. The high is is in pretty good spot. One is the euro. One is the 3K NAM…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: right..which I why I said entertainment purposes and suggested we wait for Kuchera Ok but I bet even the weatherbell 10:1 map wasn’t like that storm vista one. Something was up with that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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