T. August Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The horseshoe is real. Can’t ignore it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nsof Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said: 48 hours out.. how could this possibly fail.. with that run I think we are safe 00z runs should be a good tell with new data and samplings. 18z fun to look at though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, T. August said: The horseshoe is real. Can’t ignore it now. So that's what you got out of this run? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Almost as cold as the Euro and wetter. Dang son. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I approve of this message! NOW - can every other model please fall in line with this please? 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, T. August said: The horseshoe is real. Can’t ignore it now. The claw in precip total may be real, but you can really ignore the snow maps here. St. Mary's County isn't getting 14" of snow while Baltimore gets 8-10". 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hush. Never doubt the ability of something to pull the football away last minute. Lol! Absolutely true in the dc region. Luckily we are essentially within 36 hours and every hour that ticks by without a sudden shift makes that less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GFS give Short Pump the ole' middle finger. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hush. Never doubt the ability of something to pull the football away last minute. For sure, especially this year. But we're ~36 hours out and still moving the right direction so far. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, nsof said: 00 should be a good tell with new data and samplings At the height of the storm I am in the mid 20s. I dont like the timing but hopefully it is cold and heavy enough to overcome any late winter sun angle issues 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: So that's what you got out of this run? Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, blueberryfaygo said: At the height of the storm I am in the mid 20s. I dont like the timing but hopefully it is cold and heavy enough to overcome any late winter sun angle issues Texas has no such sun issues. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, blueberryfaygo said: 48 hours out.. how could this possibly fail.. with that run I think we are safe Just my humble opinion, but I don't think any operational model ensures that we're safe. Mesos are clearly trending more positively, but they still blast that warm nose through our region, and they were right to a degree with that feature in previous events. I would say that the past few model suites have cemented the fact that a significant wintry event is going to unfold. 0.5"+ QPF of any frozen is rather significant, and most models put that total at almost twice that precip output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: The claw in precip total may be real, but you can really ignore the snow maps here. St. Mary's County isn't getting 14" of snow while Baltimore gets 8-10". Totally agree, but cut that in half (or a third), and it’s a lil concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said: At the height of the storm I am in the mid 20s. I dont like the timing but hopefully it is cold and heavy enough to overcome any late winter sun angle issues If you're in the mid 20s with moderate precip, it's going to accumulate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, T. August said: Yes. Snow's all going to melt before April 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, T. August said: Yes. Godspeed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I approve of this message! NOW - can every other model please fall in line with this please? So close to 250 digital inches at DCA for the year 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Godspeed. C’mon, you know what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 We're never 'safe' in this area. It's just the reality that to score big we will always be flirting with disaster* *(c) Molly Hatchet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Hush. Never doubt the ability of something to pull the football away last minute. 2 minutes ago, chris21 said: Lol! Absolutely true in the dc region. Luckily we are essentially within 36 hours and every hour that ticks by without a sudden shift makes that less likely. 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: For sure, especially this year. But we're ~36 hours out and still moving the right direction so far. Past tracking has shown the graphs plummet around 36 hours out (from model init) a few times this season. That would be the 00Z runs tonight. We're looking good, but by no means home free. I'm crossing all available appendages 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Just my humble opinion, but I don't think any operational model ensures that we're safe. Mesos are clearly trending more positively, but they still blast that warm nose through our region, and they were right to a degree with that feature in previous events. I would say that the past few model suites have cemented the fact that a significant wintry event is going to unfold. 0.5"+ QPF of any frozen is rather significant, and most models put that total at almost twice that precip output. what's nice is that the worst case scenario is trending better. feb 94 does come to mind with that plume of moisture depicted on the nam which ended up being a sleet storm here (no hyperbole either...it was indeed 4"+ of sleet), but when you have globals converging towards a colder solution, it's hard to take a short range model too seriously until it gets into its wheelhouse. that said, assuming the warm nose is correct, elevation will play a role...tho it normally does here anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The GFS is almost identical with the cold progression on Friday and through the weekend. Whatever falls is sticking around for a while. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Interesting that the GFS para again focuses the initial thump further south. The northern areas score, but it's actually during the afternoon. It's also more aggressive than the ops with moving the changeover line further north. Verbatim, it hits southern areas with a lot of snow in the morning and hits northern areas with a lot of snow in the afternoon - there is an impressive screw zone running along I-50 from DC to Annapolis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Texas has no such sun issues. Stop. There is no sun angle issues. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Winds ripping pretty good in Westminster. Temp down to 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, blizzardmeiser said: Stop. There is no sun angle issues. That was exactly my point. Texas which has longer daylight than we do now had no issues, we won’t either. March it becomes an issue and even then rates can overcome it. 3/8/99 and 3/5/15 come to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Past tracking has shown the graphs plummet around 36 hours out (from model init) a few times this season. That would be the 00Z runs tonight. We're looking good, but by no means home free. I'm crossing all available appendages I'll feel comfortable with the 6z Thursday runs. Thankfully, I'll be asleep when they come out so oh well. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: Interesting that the GFS para again focuses the initial thump further south. The northern areas score, but it's actually during the afternoon. It's also more aggressive than the ops with moving the changeover line further north. Verbatim, it hits southern areas with a lot of snow in the morning and hits northern areas with a lot of snow in the afternoon - there is an impressive screw zone running along I-50 from DC to Annapolis. Interesting is a lot nicer word than I would have used! Luckily it’s the only model really focusing that southern max of the initial push. I have a feeling that it will settle along a line from Winchester to northern Maryland, but without that dramatic drop in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Winds ripping pretty good in Westminster. Temp down to 37. 34 out here and cold winds! 25 mph and gusts a lot higher Brrrr outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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