LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: ICON panels still coming out, but it looks pretty darn juiced. Nice to see models not lose any precip with some actually getting wetter as we get towards 40hrs until onset. Gives us a cushion for when/if they lose a bit of juice as they have so far during this winter in short range. Yup. Longer duration too. All in all a better run for just about everyone. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Holy cow at the ICON. If you remember, it was the first to bring this storm back. Go ICON 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: RGEM stairstepping down to colder also. Man, we just need the cold push to be 50/70 miles more south 850mb clearly colder on 18z vs 12z. Not a ton, but noticeable shift toward colder/SE solution. 700mb pretty much a wash across the region compared to 12z. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 ICON is a stone cold crushing for the northern tier and a great hit into the cities with the thump. Starting to see some solutions actually getting more juicy in cases today, and the longer duration is to thank in part. Also starting to see double digit total potential in some runs in the favored areas. EPS had some of these as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Holy cow at the ICON. If you remember, it was the first to bring this storm back. Go ICON I remember it being the only model to hold onto the Feb 7th system as well. Pretty nice run it's on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Pretty remarkable agreement on that front running thin band of snow. At this point it targets my area on all of the models. But that could change at any point. I just find it amazing that all of them are picking up that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Pretty remarkable agreement on that front running thin band of snow. At this point it targets my area on all of the models. But that could change at any point. I just find it amazing that all of them are picking up that feature. You talking about the "claw"? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Looks like N&W is likely to do a lot better than I95 and the cities though with whatever falls thursday evening/night...data seems to want to kind of dry slot cities and keep the party going with bands N&W...believable since weve seen that story before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said: Looks like N&W is likely to do a lot better than I95 and the cities though with whatever falls thursday evening/night...data seems to want to kind of dry slot cities and keep the party going with bands N&W...believable since weve seen that story before Yeah that part is a tad annoying...I'm guessing orographics have something to do with that? Or is it just this season, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah that part is a tad annoying...I'm guessing orographics have something to do with that? Or is it just this season, lol Yeah id bet its partially that...also the cities have seemed to be too close to the upper level energies i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: You've been bearish all year, so this is exciting to see. What are your thoughts on the NAM being quicker than everything else? I think there is something to it. Strong jet coming up from the southern states. Given the model has a 90kt jet I see why it’s fast, but unfortunately so will the changeover be. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This is gonna be an all snow storm for Stafford County and north by 0z, book it. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Looks like N&W is likely to do a lot better than I95 and the cities though with whatever falls thursday evening/night...data seems to want to kind of dry slot cities and keep the party going with bands N&W...believable since weve seen that story before You could always say that and be right 90 percent of the time. However, doubt the models have the placement of the Thursday night precip locked down 48 hours in advance when they just started showing wraparound precip for the first time 12 hours ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Pretty remarkable agreement on that front running thin band of snow. At this point it targets my area on all of the models. But that could change at any point. I just find it amazing that all of them are picking up that feature. I think it’s pretty much impossible for the jackpot not to be in the same old spots. If temps are ever an issue that will be the case 99% of the time. Lift + temps wins every time. Never for one moment believed the Euro central MD jackpot. But I will say I’d be more than happy if this verified. Definitely better than I expected three days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah that part is a tad annoying...I'm guessing orographics have something to do with that? Or is it just this season, lol It’s 95% of the time any season. But when I said this when the euro was jackpotting us I was roasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 you guys are gonna like the GFS... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Nice high location in NE on 18z at 42. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Beat down at 48 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GFS is still snow through 18z Thursday in DC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 GFS is quite nice...and colder. Snow hangs on longer. Man... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS is quite nice...and colder. Snow hangs on longer. Man... yessir.. I hold on to snow at 54 too.. thats 18 hours snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS is quite nice...and colder. Snow hangs on longer. Man... 0.75” QPF through 18z Thursday. Thumpity thump thump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Most of this is snow verbatim: 5 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 That’s the run we’ve been impatiently waiting for. 14 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GFS is noice for BWI, DCA, and IAD. Even down to EZF does better. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: GFS is noice for BWI, DCA, and IAD. Even down to EZF does better. 48 hours out.. how could this possibly fail.. with that run I think we are safe 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Straight up weenie run: 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said: Most of this is snow verbatim: Hold strong little roots... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, blueberryfaygo said: 48 hours out.. how could this possibly fail.. with that run I think we are safe Hush. Never doubt the ability of something to pull the football away last minute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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