Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 So far, it appears the NAMs are much faster than the rest of guidance. Interesting to see if this is a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The storm has really changed from what we were seeing on the models a couple of days ago. Quick hitter now. Yesterday some of the models had this as a 24 hour event. That is where the QPF has gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: The storm has really changed from what we were seeing on the models a couple of days ago. Quick hitter now. Yesterday some of the models had this as a 24 hour event. That is where the QPF has gone. every storm ends up being something where we see the back edge before the first flakes. Its super annoying. I am hoping the NAMS are still out of their range 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Ji said: every storm ends up being something where we see the back edge before the first flakes. Its super annoying. I am hoping the NAMS are still out of their range How about the three day storm less than three weeks ago? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, chris21 said: How about the three day storm less than three weeks ago? Wasnt a 3 day storm for me...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 It looks like models are showing two stripes of precip in the area DC split kinda one north and one south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3k NAM brings another round of IP/ZR during the late afternoon and evening east of I-81. Would be another ice layer on top of whatever falls and at night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, WhiteoutMD said: It looks like models are showing two stripes of precip in the area DC split kinda one north and one south ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The storm has really changed from what we were seeing on the models a couple of days ago. Quick hitter now. Yesterday some of the models had this as a 24 hour event. That is where the QPF has gone. You’re right. A few days ago this was warm rain and no one thought anything of it 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Deer Whisperer said: ? Looks ok to me. But I’m a blind idiot. It’s the cold I care about. Without that it could be 3 inches of precip and still meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: It looks like models are showing two stripes of precip in the area DC split kinda one north and one south Missing that WAA snow band on the NAMs is a key difference. GFS has that band right through DC. 0z Euro has some weak precipitation in PA where the NAM has it, but fills in the precip over us quickly as snow. That difference is likely driven by that 700mb jet streak @MN Transplant showed. NAM is wwwaayyyy further north with that then any other guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Updated LWX AFD: Quote .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPDATED TO INCLUDE WINTER STORM WATCH... DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL AND TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO 30S ELSEWHERE. CLOUDS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT THERE WILL BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPPER JET POSITIONS ITSELF TO OUR NORTHWEST. OVERRUNING PRECIPITATION OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDING A TOUCH CLOSER WITH THE PRECIP ONSET. THE WARMER AIR ALOFT DOESN'T INTRUDE ENOUGH BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, SO DO EXPECT MUCH OF THE PTYPE TO BE IN THE FLAVOR OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE CWA, EXCEPTION BEING OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA, WHERE A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX WILL EXIST. PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING AS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET MAX ARE FAVORABLY POSITIONED TO OUR WEST. WITH THE GULF ORIGIN OF THE LOW, PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IS PROJECTED BY A MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT END OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE THE WARMER ALOFT CRASHES THE PARTY, TURNING THE PTYPE INTO MORE OF A WINTRY MIX FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS HAS BEEN THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION MOST OF THE WINTER, IS HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST DOES THE WINTRY MIX MAKE IT AND HOW MUCH OF THE AREA TRANSITIONS TO A PLAIN RAIN. THIS WILL HAVE DIRECT IMPLICATIONS ON SNOWFALL POTENTIAL, AND ICING POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LEANING ON THE COLDER SIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH LOCKING IN THE COLDER AIR, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TREND WITH THE WARM NOSE IN RECENT EVENTS, AM HESITATE TO BUY IN COMPLETELY TO A COLDER AND SNOWIER SOLUTION FOR A DAY 3 SYSTEM. ALL THIS BEING SAID, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MODERATE IMPACT WINTER STORM ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE, WITH AN ENHANCED IMPACT FURTHER EAST INTO THE METROS. THE POTENTIAL COMBINATION OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION DOES RAISE SOME CONCERNS AND BEARS CLOSE MONITORING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. WE HAVE HOISTED A WINTER STORM WATCH THIS MORNING FOR HIGHLAND, AUGUSTA, NELSON, AND ALBERMARLE COUNTIES IN CENTRAL/WESTERN VIRGINIA FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION. FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE WATCH WILL BE REASSESSED LATER TODAY AS WE DIGEST THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND PROBABILITIES. AS ALWAYS FOLLOW US ON OUR WINTER WEATHER PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/LWX/WINTER FOR THE LATEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA, BEFORE STARTING TO TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL TRY AND WORKS ITS WAY BACK EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR THE WINTRY MIX LINE TO MARCH BACK TO THE EAST AND SNOW TO TAKE A MORE DOMINATE ROLE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 ICON also seems to have that initial band of snow into PA..not as heavy as NAM but there at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 ICON stays plenty cold through 18z Thursday for whatever falls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: ICON also seems to have that initial band of snow into PA..not as heavy as NAM but there at 48 It's had that for the last 6 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM snow maps must not have been very good, or not out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Dabuckeyes said: ICON stays plenty cold through 18z Thursday for whatever falls Pretty much all the guidance at this point has below freezing temps for pretty much all, all day thursday...questions are the warm layers aloft and precip types Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, flsch22 said: NAM snow maps must not have been very good, or not out yet? Its great if you count the sleet as snow like the snow maps do lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 hours ago, ErinInTheSky said: I'm hugging the NAM. I want 3-5" of sleet. I love love love those kinds of storms. When I first moved here in 2016, a year later, 2017, was my favorite winter storm. 3" of sleet. People here know how to deal with snow mostly but sleet, no. It was hilarious because I suddenly felt like everyone was in my boat, a newbie. People treated it like snow, it looked like snow, covered everything, but it was not snow. The plows came and created these sleet mountains that looked like snow. People tried to back over them with their cars, and it didn't compact down, because it was pure ice. It was chaos in the most hilarious way, car tires sticking up in the air as the cars got stuck on those little snow banks created by the plows. It stayed for SO long, melted so slowly. I absolutely loved it. and that was 3". Nam is showing 4-5" of sleet now. That is exciting to me. I experienced a storm like that in Oklahoma many, many years ago. Curb deep sleet (4-6") followed by freezing rain. Then the temps crashed. Net result was a chunky 4" thick glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 ICON with 1 - 4" snowfall with plenty of frozen (sleet or frz) through 1am Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 RGEM keeps on going through 15z Friday for DC S and E with light sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's had that for the last 16 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, flsch22 said: NAM snow maps must not have been very good, or not out yet? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Trend of 12K NAM for Friday morning. Is that the secondary low intensifying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 hours ago, mappy said: Hopefully! PSU said it yesterday, the potential is definitely there that everyone cashes in before the flip. @Maestrobjwa maybe but also keep in mind 4.8” of snow followed by a crap ton of sleet and freezing rain is still a warning event AND and extremely high impact event. More so then an 8” snowstorm. It’s not the same as the 4.8” of 33 degree slop that chances to rain kind of events we’ve become accustomed too in the 95 corridor. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 It's a Hagerstown winter...they're doing well out there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flsch22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, EHoffman said: yikes, that's what I figured. Thanks for sharing! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: RGEM keeps on going through 15z Friday for DC S and E with light sleet. And finishes with a little kiss of snow on Friday evening. Lost a little QPF in a stripe from SQ VA trough DC and Baltimore, but that's just run-to-run variance, from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 8 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Over a foot in my yard and 1.8" in Winchester 30 miles south of me. Don't think I've ever seen that happen before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Through 33, heights on the 12z gfs are slightly higher and the 700 temps are a little north. ULL north of NE is slightly further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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