Winter Wizard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: It appears the past 3 runs of the NAM have progressively, but slowly weakened the southerly winds at 700 mb, which would be a trend to the GFS. Yeah for sure, NAM has always been the outlier since the winds were much stronger at the mid-levels compared to other guidance. Seems to be falling in line now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: To my eyes its the best "Snow" run the Nam has had but not quite what the globals have. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Done by 54. This panel before the flip was money: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 this is actually the first run the NAM has given me snow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Reading between the lines, 12k NAM improved in the mids. First scud missile dodged. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Total QDF for DC is a bit over 1 inch and below freezing the whole event. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Through HR54, the NAM definitely is better for I-95. Eventual flip to IP/ZR for DCA, but it's good to see more frozen. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM is mid-20s at the surface during the morning quick hit of snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I'd wait for the 3km which should be in range for most of the storm now. A lot of these subtle mid level temperature changes are related to banding which the 12km NAM does not resolve as well as 3km. Could very well be that heavier precip=snow and lighter precip=sleet in the transition zone. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The NAM also gives DC 0.4 inches of freezing rain and western Fairfax around .3. Would be a snow to sleet bomb with freezing rain to turn it into concrete. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, GEOS5ftw said: I'd wait for the 3km which should be in range for most of the storm now. A lot of these subtle mid level temperature changes are related to banding which the 12km NAM does not resolve as well as 3km. Could very well be that heavier precip=snow and lighter precip=sleet in the transition zone. Well, we've taken a step backwards on the 3km. No front-end thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM has this thing in and out of the 95 corridor in like 8 hours. Quick, but intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 the NAM has the storm over by noon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3k looks like mostly sleet, no soundings yet but pushes 700 temps further north than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This is 3hrs of pounding sleet in DC on the NAM 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3k goes straight to sleet for the cities. Warm layer at 700. PA and far w/nw areas gets the goods for snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, snowfan said: 3k goes straight to sleet for the cities. Warm layer at 700. PA gets the goods for snow. Wasn't euro tending that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Well, we've taken a step backwards on the 3km. No front-end thump. sounding at 48hr on the 3K is VERY close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Both NAMs are fast..storm over by 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, H2O said: DCA Better than I thought...is really close there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Better than I thought...is really close there Probably a mix of Snow missiles and sleet bombs (Bob Chill quote I'm sure) if the rates materialize. Just gotta maximize the first 1-2 hours hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Both NAMs are fast..storm over by 1pm It is lighter, but we do get back into some frozen later in the evening also on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 All we need on the 3K is a slight trend south with the WAA precip...southern PA gets some nice stuff at 10z...wouldnt take a big shift to get some of that into the cities 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: It is lighter, but we do get back into some frozen later in the evening also on the NAM. NAMs would imply some frozen drizzle, light ZR in the evening on top of everything. I have my EMT test Thursday night so I'm hoping things trend worse so it can get knocked back to next Tuesday. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Yeah I mean the 3K is super close to having super heavy snow in the cities right at the morning rush..I wouldnt sweat what it shows verbatim quite yet..its a mauling for a few hours in northern MD/pa line 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Given where we were on this three days ago not a bad spot to be in at this point. Thermals seem to be the concern, not QPF but what else is new. Gotta live on the edge to get the goods around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The margin of error between a mauling and a sleetfest on the 3k NAM is less than a degree at 700 mb. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Winter Wizard said: The margin of error between a mauling and a sleetfest on the 3k NAM is less than a degree at 700 mb. Life in the DMV. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This is still a wild difference at 700mb. 12z NAM and 06z GFS for Thursday morning. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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