chris21 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, IronTy said: For those keeping track... this a far better run snow wise than 00z for the dc metro at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: Much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, gopper said: They need one of those graphics for days 1-2 to clear up confusion. Check out their snowfall accumulation maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Unfortunately no time for me to participate until late afternoon. Imho- 12z meso thermals are important and should be weighted higher than globals now as long as there is no sig divergence with h5 progression. Also, about the right time for globals to start giving some back with heights/confluence. Hope not for sure but typically hard to avoid close in this year 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, chris21 said: For those keeping track... this a far better run snow wise than 00z for the dc metro at least. Not sure, the QPF is lower and this smells like the inevitable drying trend as the storm nears in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, IronTy said: Not sure, the QPF is lower and this smells like the inevitable drying trend as the storm nears in. Better upper levels for DC metro. Difference between 2"and 5". 06z is better if you want snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 May not be puking fatties but HRRR at end of run has snow for everybody at 11z...earlier start for folks west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: Not sure, the QPF is lower and this smells like the inevitable drying trend as the storm nears in. There’s no doubt there is more snow in the initial thump in dc at least than 00z... check the soundings..Held steady with qpf in the dc metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: Not sure, the QPF is lower and this smells like the inevitable drying trend as the storm nears in. You said you weren't falling for it again and that we could take the snow split to the bank. So why does QPF matter to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: May not be puking fatties but HRRR at end of run has snow for everybody at 11z...earlier start for folks west Yep, sleet line is way down in southern VA. I think in previous storms this year, the HRRR has been a little generous with snow vs. sleet compared to verification, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said: Yep, sleet line is way down in southern VA. I think in previous storms this year, the HRRR has been a little generous with snow vs. sleet compared to verification, though. Yep...29-30 degree temps for most...hopefully that would drop a couple degrees once the steady stuff cools the column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: You said you weren't falling for it again and that we could take the snow split to the bank. So why does QPF matter to you? The whole "drying trend" is nothing more than guidance adjusting the overdone juicy mid range solutions. Practically every storm does it and is more obvious/pronounced with storms that arent blocked from gaining latitude. Imo- 6z was still very impressive qpf given the precip timeframe. Heavies. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I don't necessarily agree with the "Drying trend". Yes, the euro is no longer spitting out 1.4" of QPF but its, IMO, within normal run to run variance. As we near events, models will always trim the NW extent, but ill be there will be some meso band in the usual places. 12z yesterday through 6z today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM time yall, let's tighten it up in here during model runs. 4 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Looking pretty solid so far. Flatter out front on the H5 map compared to both 0z and 6z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Snow into Winchester by 9z. Flatter and a smidge colder. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Snow thump just nw of the city to start this run. Better than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Snow in DC at 9z, obviously sooner out west and north and along I66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Despite this, 700 mb temps are warmer for our region at the onset of precipitation. Interesting. NAM always had the briefest period of snow for us, so that hasn't changed it looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILIKERAKE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 hr 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 700 mb winds seem to be slightly weaker compared to the 6z run. Should mean slower WAA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Colder run. DC just barely hanging on to heavy snow at 48hr (7AM) vs 6z when it went over to sleet at 54 hrs 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Interesting. NAM always had the briefest period of snow for us, so that hasn't changed it looks like. Yeah, it looks like they must cool off quickly on the next as the precip starts though so I deleted the post because it doesn't seem to be an important variable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Winter Wizard said: 700 mb winds seem to be slightly weaker compared to the 6z run. Should mean slower WAA. It appears the past 3 runs of the NAM have progressively, but slowly weakened the southerly winds at 700 mb, which would be a trend to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM has a tongue of warmth at 850 riding up the apps that could cause fits for folks west and nnw of dc at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Lol at the winchester sleet bubble at hour 48. And then dry slotted at 51. NAM hates Winchester 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Lost the column by 15z in DC, but at least some front-end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: Lol at the winchester sleet bubble at hour 48. 850’s are above zero so ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 To my eyes its the best "Snow" run the Nam has had but not quite what the globals have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Author Share Posted February 16, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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