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February 18/19th Storm Potential


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  On 2/16/2021 at 12:39 PM, mappy said:

I was texting her earlier, told her to go low then adjust high as things get closer. A reverse bust is always better than going high and busting way too low 

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See though I don't think the bust, should it bust, is going to even bee a "bust"

If you don't get significant snow, you're going to get obscene sleet and thats going to make up for the bust. The ground will be white just like snow and it will stick around longer and it will be the most sleet you've seen in the last at least 5 years (or more? If it beasts the 2017 storm).

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  On 2/16/2021 at 12:44 PM, ErinInTheSky said:

See though I don't think the bust, should it bust, is going to even bee a "bust"

If you don't get significant snow, you're going to get obscene sleet and thats going to make up for the bust. The ground will be white just like snow and it will stick around longer and it will be the most sleet you've seen in the last at least 5 years (or more? If it beasts the 2017 storm).

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Agreed, she and I discussed that too. Could easily be a couple inches of snow followed by a ton of sleet before the flip to rain. 

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  On 2/16/2021 at 12:29 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Big question: Can a 4-6" snow forecast FINALLY yield a warning level result in Baltimore?? Or will the maddening dance of "oh hey we'll snow 4.8" to troll ya" dance continue? Stay tuned...lol

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Hopefully! PSU said it yesterday, the potential is definitely there that everyone cashes in before the flip. 

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  On 2/16/2021 at 12:58 PM, mappy said:

They do lol, though I think its more Tom than anything, and she usually has to follow Tom's lead when it comes to what to forecast. 

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She’s really become one of the better mets in our area. Her example last week of baking cakes w different colored layers representing warm air aloft (eg how we get PL or ZR) was clever and done in a way that any joe schmoe could understand.

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  On 2/16/2021 at 1:01 PM, snowfan said:

She’s really become one of the better mets in our area. Her example last week of baking cakes w different colored layers representing warm air aloft (eg how we get PL or ZR) was clever and done in a way that any joe schmoe could understand.

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I'm pretty biased as she and I are good friends, but I agree! 

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  On 2/16/2021 at 12:51 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

I get your drift. The storm is gonna do what it wants also. So I’m not really sure why I’m posting about precip totals

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No taint for is on the Euro. That is the trade off. And the Gfs crushes us. It seems most all of the models are keeping us close to an all snow event now. 

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It's going to be just disgusting across much of central VA it seems. I guess maybe we'll get a nice freeze over with it? I dunno. Rooting for folks to the north who missed the earlier storms to get plastered.
 

Absolutely laughing at the 6Z GFS that verbatim gives CHO 9.9" according to Kuchera. No way in the world that happens.

 

LOL the 10:1 has us at nearly 12". Clearly drunk.

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  On 2/16/2021 at 1:31 PM, WVclimo said:

Confidence is the same, but the impact isn't as severe.  They mentioned in their forecast discussion that they expected moderate impact.

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I was just assuming that yesterday day 3 was red which is now day 2 so they aren't showing that in the 3-7 day threats

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