stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Ok, we know how this goes. After last time where I gave the people the choice between relaxed thread or Storm Mode and you all promptly made it a debacle, this thread is not quite storm mode yet, but not the normal thread. We're under 72 hours, so there has to be a thread. Sorry. Keep the banter to a minimum. Don't talk about when LWX is gonna issue a watch (however you can post any watches and warnings) Shut up Chuck 2 4 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Stormtracker thread ftw!!! Bring it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Gentlemen can we please get a snow map so i can go to sleep. Much appreciated. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, ravensrule said: Gentlemen can we please get a snow map so i can go to sleep. Much appreciated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GFS/Ukie vs. CMC/EURO vs. NAM/SREF Pick your team before the 36 hour rug pull! 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Looks like it pretty much stays all snow or at least only a brief changeover for areas 15 miles NW of the cities. Bulk of our snow comes Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: Congrats to EZF for lollying their subregion? You face Frostburg in round 2. Good luck. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Big step back from the Euro. I'm going to bed. Per usual... if history serves models well trend worse with each consecutive suite. It is what we do best! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GFS/Ukie vs. CMC/EURO vs. NAM/SREF Pick your team before the 36 hour rug pull! This is very cool! I’d love to see you keep track of this in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, KAOS said: In less than 15 minutes this is already turning into a sh*tshow. Technically the Euro came out before storm mode, but the fact that it was percolating around the 72 hour mark clearly infiltrated the system and, well, there you go. It's all downhill from here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 42 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said: GFS/Ukie vs. CMC/EURO vs. NAM/SREF Pick your team before the 36 hour rug pull! This is super cool btw. If you did this with every 'significant' tracking--maybe storms that make it to storm mode?--would be interesting to see which results verify closest and at what points along the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 00z EPS snowfall mean is a push SE once again compared to 18z... by a good 50 to 60 miles 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z EPS snowfall mean is a push SE once again compared to 18z... by a good 50 to 60 miles Looking at the 00z EPS individual members at hour 108, we find the following: 43/50 show 2"+ snow at DCA ~21/50 show 6"+ snow at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 06Z NAM looks improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, BlueDXer75 said: 06Z NAM looks improved. The 3k looks phenomenal 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 WB 6Z PARA 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Overall trends are colder, with the coastal low more dominant and taking a pretty good track. Need the waa on the front end to come in fast and be furious in order for the lowlands to have a fighting chance at some snow accumulation before the warm nose intrudes. NW areas are looking good as usual. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I dont know after the fail of this last system on the models I just wonder if it just wont be 50 and rain all the way up to ny state. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 25 minutes ago, Ruin said: I dont know after the fail of this last system on the models I just wonder if it just wont be 50 and rain all the way up to ny state. I GUARANTEE you it won’t be 50° in NY State. The TRENDS continue to be colder. Anything else is just nonsensical speculation at this point. Can the trends change? Of course. There are no signs that they are. @Bob Chill talked about it last week-In this hobby as long as I’m not hugging one model that has the most snow etc but look at what the major models are showing and then the mesos within 48 hours or so of an event, most of the time we will have a general idea of what will occur, using the TOOLS at our disposal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Ava's very early snowfall map: 6-8 along the PA line, 4-6 for Baltimore, 2-4 for DC 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I asked yesterday over or under 3 inches in dc and was told to soon. What are we thinking today? I will start under . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 6z NAM still a pretty ridiculous sleet event at JYO...to me now the question to be solved isn't if it's going to be a significant event but what the amount of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain combo will be. I'm hoping mostly snow but right now my thoughts are 60% snow, 25% sleet, 10% freezing rain, 5% plain rain for the entire event at JYO...subject to change of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: 6z NAM still a pretty ridiculous sleet event at JYO...to me now the question to be solved isn't if it's going to be a significant event but what the amount of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain combo will be. I'm hoping mostly snow but right now my thoughts are 60% snow, 25% sleet, 10% freezing rain, 5% plain rain for the entire event at JYO...subject to change of course Take out the 5% plain rain and I could go for this. Add that 5% to snow or sleet and we good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: 6z NAM still a pretty ridiculous sleet event at JYO...to me now the question to be solved isn't if it's going to be a significant event but what the amount of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain combo will be. I'm hoping mostly snow but right now my thoughts are 60% snow, 25% sleet, 10% freezing rain, 5% plain rain for the entire event at JYO...subject to change of course Reverse the order but keep the same %s for my area. Could even bump up the rain one cause cold press storms are always slower than progged 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, H2O said: Reverse the order but keep the same %s for my area. Could even bump up the rain one cause cold press storms are always slower than progged I'm probably too aggressive with the rain part...not sure any model other than the nam showing rain at all right now even down by you. I predict you will get a significant event hoping more snow/sleet than freezing rain though. The pictures from Tennessee which was hit by a sleet bomb looked pretty much like snow after it accumulates over 2" I hope we all have fun with this one in some form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Watches already up to our SW in VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, snowfan said: Watches already up to our SW in VA. I am certain they are trying to get people's attention because they are still recovering from the last event and may be just focused on that. Power companies have to be crying. Fuel companies have to be grinning ear to ear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Well this Stinks - Trends went poorly overnight. Hopeful they stabilize or reverse a little bit today. Starting to get fuel myself based on that correction. Euro has been running cold. Nam has led the way on most systems this year. If the event were imminent I would be happy with the set up for MBY...but this has the Lucy feel on snow. It will be a Significant storm.. But I think deep down we see and know what is happening here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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