February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

[bearman]

There is one thing that is absolutely clear.  MY SKIES in north Knoxville.

[John1122]

Down to 13.6 now. Probably as low as I'm going to get. After being around freezing for several days in a row, the last 24 hours have frozen the ground solid and chilled road temps. I expect the snow currently on the ground to evaporate in large part today. But everything should be primed for rapid sticking this evening. 

[Scottie16]

HRRR shifting again. The “heart” of the valley should monitor closely as it could see more freezing rain over snow/rain. 

[Kentucky]

[dwagner88]

Bottomed out at 17.1 here but it’s now 17.6. The last GFS I looked at torched us to 48 this afternoon before quickly crashing back to 33 as precip started. I find that very hard to believe. There is zero cloud cover here, so it’s possible I guess if we hold on to full sunshine all day. 

[PowellVolz]

MRX actually raised my low temps tonight from 33 to 34. Might be right though.


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[Kasper]

Don’t worry @Stovepipe I’m here

[bearman]

Looks like Memphis is getting its first flakes of round 2.  Glad to see them cashing in.  Check out the cam.

 

https://www.memphiszoo.org/elephant-cam

[bearman]

For folks in the valley cloud cover proceeding events like this can very good.  Trapping cold air in the valley at the surface.  It does not always matter but in marginal situations every piece of the puzzle counts.  Right now it is not looking very good.   Here is a good place to check out cloud cover.   https://www.theweathernetwork.com/map/satellite

[WestTennWX]

Official totals have been bumped down here in far NW TN with the SE trend.  An impressive string of advisories/warnings with this one too. Hopefully some of you guys will cash in

[PowellVolz]

Looks like Memphis is getting its first flakes of round 2.  Glad to see them cashing in.  Check out the cam.
 
https://www.memphiszoo.org/elephant-cam

Isn’t this ahead of schedule?


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z NAM still ticking south (if just barely) past 5 runs:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Come on clouds, you can do it:

[Shocker0]

16 in Crossville, partly cloudy. Hopefully the clouds roll in quick. It seems like yesterday's fluffy snow is already trying to melt a little or maybe it just compacted overnight. Just need the clouds to head our way now that the sun is up.

[AMZ8990]

23 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Isn’t this ahead of schedule?


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Yes.Yesterday they were predicting around 2-5pm is when the snow would start.  Now they have it starting around 10-11AM.

[PowellVolz]

Temp has came up 3-4’ at my house without a cloud in site.


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[dwagner88]

I have high "fish scale" clouds racing in from the south, but they are thin enough to allow plenty of sunlight through. Temp is climbing quickly. Up to 24 from a low of 17 despite a light NE wind.

[PowellVolz]

I have high "fish scale" clouds racing in from the south, but they are thin enough to allow plenty of sunlight through. Temp is climbing quickly. Up to 24 from a low of 17 despite a light NE wind.

I feel like as long as we stay within reason on temps we will be ok there. It’s the mid levels that I’m worried about.


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[Carvers Gap]

12k NAM is absolutely terrible for TRI regarding ice.  3k NAM is better.  Trend for TRI on the NAM is ice right now.  

[PowellVolz]

I feel like the trend will be for the NAM to come east and everything else trends west and they meet in the middle. I think the snow never makes it in the valley other than some token flakes on the back end. I think the cutoff will be on the eastern slopes of the plateau.


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[McMinnWx]

Up to 26 here. 

[McMinnWx]

Clouds have arrived here.  Sitting at 27.  Will be interested to see how much warmer it gets.

[AMZ8990]

Sitting at 19 right now in bolivar.  Cloud cover starting to increase 

[Carvers Gap]

Trend right now is for a faster system and less precip due to that.  RGEM cut my qpf by half....still mostly frozen but much less precip overall.  Looks like it cut precip totals across the state.  

[Kentucky]

16 this morning to 23 now

[jaxjagman]

esoscale Discussion 0108
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0915 AM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

   Areas affected...the ArkLaTex region northeastward to southwest
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 171515Z - 172115Z

   SUMMARY...A band of moderate to occasionally heavy snow will
   continue to expand northeastward across the discussion area,
   potentially impacting the Memphis, TN metropolitan area beginning
   around 17Z.

   DISCUSSION...Precipitation continues to expand on the northern flank
   of a precipitation shield covering much of east Texas and western
   Louisiana currently.  Over the past hour, precipitation (falling
   mostly as moderate snow) has expanded in coverage and intensified
   across southeastern Arkansas near Pine Bluff/Dumas and vicinity. 
   The overall regime will favor continued expansion of the
   precipitation into southwest Tennessee and northwestern Mississippi,
   with the onset of snowfall in the Memphis, TN metro area around 17Z.
    Several hours of moderate to occasionally heavy snow will occur in
   this region through at least 21Z.  Point forecast soundings indicate
   potential for some sleet to mix in with the snow across southern
   portions of the MD area (generally from Texarkana to Bolivar County,
   MS).  Occasional 1" per hour rates are expected - especially in
   areas that maintain an all-snow precipitation type.

   ..Cook.. 02/17/2021

[Kentucky]

JKL now saying 4-8 inches, I'll believe it when I see it. I do have power again

[Carvers Gap]

This system is now becoming "almost" a traditional slider.  

[PowellVolz]

This system is now becoming "almost" a traditional slider.  

So because we don’t see this every day. Does this change the feeder winds to more out of the west? Would this effect the warm nose?


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[Daniel Boone]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

So because we don’t see this every day. Does this change the feeder winds to more out of the west? Would this effect the warm nose?


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Should shunt it from coming as far North.