February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

[jaxjagman]

8 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Looks like the radar at MEG already sees some moisture moving in- hopefully that raises the DP and we don't have a significant dry air issue by tomorrow afternoon.

National Weather Service Memphis TN
957 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

.UPDATE...
A vigorous shortwave trough is digging across Southern Plains
this evening. Strong southwest flow downstream of this wave is
providing a nice fetch of mid/high clouds across the region and
this should help temperatures remain steady or even slightly warm
overnight as winds become more easterly. Strong vertical motion
can be inferred ahead of this trough which will overspread the
Mid-South tonight into Wednesday, assisting in large scale ascent.
QG forcing fields are quite impressive with this system tonight
through Thursday. Finally, the right entrance region to an
intensifying upper-level jet will provide additional large scale
ascent.

On the mesoscale, we do see an area of frontogentic forcing
developing on Wednesday, intensifying through the evening hours.
This is in response to warm advection above the stubborn arctic
dome. This frontogenesis is located within an area of negative
equivalent potential vorticity, which implies the presence of
convective symmetric instability. This suggests the potential for
the development of mesoscale snow bands leading to one or more
axes of heavier snow. Exactly where these bands set up is still
uncertain.

Recent guidance is also trending toward less sleet/freezing rain
potential in Memphis and more in the way of snow. That said, only
a degree or two warmer in the layer around 850 mb could yield
more sleet and really eat into snow totals like the previous
event. Farther north and west, snow looks to be the best bet with
accumulations exceeding near or above 6 inches. The southeast
corner of the CWA is where the most uncertainty exists given the
stronger warm nose and marginally freezing surface temperatures.
My gut says temps will struggle to climb above freezing even in
Monroe County, but that depends on the onset and intensity of the
precipitation. At this time, no big changes were made to the snow
or ice accumulation forecast but it`s possible ice totals may need
to be increased in northeast MS.

Regardless, impacts are expected to be significant, especially
given the base of sleet and snow that already exists on the ground
across nearly all of the Mid-South. Travel will be extremely
difficult and power outages are likely.

[Stovepipe]

17 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

I'd say you're about at the bottom now. It got down to 10 here about 3 hours ago and is now up to 12.

At 19.4 degrees.  

[John1122]

UKIE snow and cooooold.

 

[Stovepipe]

Temp snapshot of nearly 1am eastern.  

[Shocker0]

16 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

At 19.4 degrees.  

Lol hopefully it will keep dropping for you. Since I posted that we've now dropped back down to 10 here so I jinxed myself. I'd say ours will stabilize out around that with the cloud cover though.

[John1122]

Euro.

[John1122]

MRX puts most of East Tennessee in a warning or advisory. My point forecast says 4-8 inches in roughly 3-4 hours. 

[McMinnWx]

Rhea, Meigs, and Hamilton got put into advisories, but they omitted McMinn. I’m a little surprised by that, given the latest Euro and the 6Z HRRR. 

[Shocker0]

38 minutes ago, John1122 said:

MRX puts most of East Tennessee in a warning or advisory. My point forecast says 4-8 inches in roughly 3-4 hours. 

OHX also moved everyone up to a warning and my point went from literally no accums 5 hours ago to saying 2-4" now

[John1122]

MRX call map. 

[John1122]

Currently 14 dp 11.5.  Hope the clouds roll in and the DP stays low until early evening.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One thing I'm not super enthused about is that it looks like the trough is starting too tilt a wee bit earlier than I would like. You can see the orientation of the lift go from ENE to NE between 11PM and 6AM

 

 

 

I looks to me like that might promote a little more sunshine in eastern valley areas than we would like. Not saying its a deal breaker, but I don't think it's ideal either. 

It could be I'm a little jumpy too, lol. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

That was my "hedgin my bets" post, here is my "embrace the snow weenie" post:

 

6z para GFS keeps even Knox and Loudon counties all snow. 

[John1122]

Just noticed if you turn the mrx map upside down you get a Morgan County anti-dollop!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Just noticed if you turn the mrx map upside down you get a Morgan County anti-dollop!

Looking carefully at that, I could see a few ways that pixeled area could be taken. Perhaps I have angered a MRX met. 

[Kentucky]

They just can't keep the power on here, substation issues. Thankfully I have a natural gas and generator,  Not big enough to run the furnace or space heater though.still a frozen tundra, ice on everything, snowed pretty much all day yesterday. Hoping to avoid any ice at all. Very old power grid and poorly maintained. 

 

16 degrees, 11 Dewpoint

[xAllVolsx]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

That was my "hedgin my bets" post, here is my "embrace the snow weenie" post:

 

6z para GFS keeps even Knox and Loudon counties all snow. 

I'm taking this to the bank and not even looking back. Warm nose will kill this probably but would love it.

[xAllVolsx]

Just now, Kentucky said:

They just can't keep the power on here, substation issues. Thankfully I have a natural gas and generator,  Not big enough to run the furnace or space heater though.

Daughter had a competition in louisville this weekend. We got out Sunday just in time. 

[John1122]

11 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

They just can't keep the power on here, substation issues. Thankfully I have a natural gas and generator,  Not big enough to run the furnace or space heater though.still a frozen tundra, ice on everything, snowed pretty much all day yesterday. Hoping to avoid any ice at all. Very old power grid and poorly maintained. 

Power has been a challenge here too. The utility department was constantly busy here because another tree or limb would fall as soon as it came back on. This looks like it's going to be an epic paste job. I fully expect to lose power again. Last snow paste I was off for 12 hours.

[Kentucky]

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Power has been a challenge here too. The utility department was constantly busy here because another tree or limb would fall as soon as it came back on. This looks like it's going to be an epic paste job. I fully expect to lose power again. Last snow paste I was off for 12 hours.

I was wondering your thoughts,. lack of communication from the power company here is the worse. They don't work 24/7 to restore power, just overwhelmed and under prepared.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro jumped west a bit:

 

 

 

 

[John1122]

Just now, Kentucky said:

 

They called in KUB to help here. There were just too many outages for our utility department to handle it. Unfortunately much more of Kentucky had power problems so I imagine you were all on your own, and we had them here or our utility company would probably have been able to help since we are border counties. 

[John1122]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z Euro jumped west a bit:

 

 

 

 

That actually looks really close the MRX call map. Wouldn't be shocked if they didn't use it heavily. 

[Jed33]

Looks like I dropped to 17 earlier but now back up to 19 with clouds moving back in. Dewpoint is 17 though. 

[Utvols235]

OHX has WSW starting at 6 pm for most of middle TN. Certainly looks like it’s going to be here quicker than that.


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[McMinnWx]

Sitting at 20 here.  DP 16.

[PowellVolz]

Around 19ish in Knoxville


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[PowellVolz]

Not sure it matters but surface winds according to a big American flag in downtown are out of the NE.


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[Jed33]

9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Not sure it matters but surface winds according to a big American flag in downtown are out of the NE.


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That’s just about always a good thing for the valley!

[PowellVolz]

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