February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Nam drops wild amounts of ice across NE TN. Let’s not go down this road.

The 12K is just a nasty mess.  

[fountainguy97]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

The 12K is just a nasty mess.  

Not sure I’ve ever seen the COD maps maxed for ZR like this. Yeah that’s 2” lol

[John1122]

NAM has major WAA beginning in a few hours.  The temperature at Morristown and Knox for instance are predicted to go up 3 to 4 degrees between 4 and 7am.  Be curious to see if that actually happens or if it's just the NAM being off. 

[jaxjagman]

I wasnt going to post this,but the warm nose in this east is real

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            18Z FEB16
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  -5.3   -13.5     125       0    27007                           
WED 00Z 17-FEB  -5.3   -11.6     126      31    32004                           
WED 06Z 17-FEB  -6.9    -3.3     126    6999    04004           0.00            
WED 12Z 17-FEB  -5.4    -1.3     128    5855    04004           0.00            
WED 18Z 17-FEB   4.5     0.1     131    5245    00002           0.00            
THU 00Z 18-FEB   1.4     0.9     131    4752    02002           0.01            
THU 06Z 18-FEB  -0.4    -0.5     130    5136    04003           0.14            
THU 12Z 18-FEB   1.2     3.5     132    7813    07005           0.88            
THU 18Z 18-FEB   6.1     1.6     132    7388    33004           0.11            
FRI 00Z 19-FEB   2.6     1.3     131    5146    36005           0.04            
FRI 06Z 19-FEB   0.2    -0.4     130    1938    00005           0.00            
FRI 12Z 19-FEB  -1.2    -3.0     129       1    00005           0.00            
FRI 18Z 19-FEB   2.1    -4.1     129     402    35005           0.00            
SAT 00Z 20-FEB  -0.7    -5.5     129     727    33005           0.00            
SAT 06Z 20-FEB  -5.8    -6.9     128       0    04001           0.00            
SAT 12Z 20-FEB  -6.7    -7.6     127       0    06002           0.00

[Uncle Nasty]

HRRR similar through 30 vs 18z. More snow in SW Tennessee and less around Chattanooga is the biggest difference so far. 

That surprises me that snow totals would be cut in Chattanooga.

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[Save the itchy algae!]

21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

NAM has major WAA beginning in a few hours.  The temperature at Morristown and Knox for instance are predicted to go up 3 to 4 degrees between 4 and 7am.  Be curious to see if that actually happens or if it's just the NAM being off. 

I’ve seen radiational cooling offset waa before, but that was in KS where radiational cooling takes on a different meaning than here.  That place turns into a moonscape with just a little snow on the ground.

Good cooling + waa usually means nice lift though 

[John1122]

13 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I wasnt going to post this,but the warm nose in this east is real

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            18Z FEB16
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  -5.3   -13.5     125       0    27007                           
WED 00Z 17-FEB  -5.3   -11.6     126      31    32004                           
WED 06Z 17-FEB  -6.9    -3.3     126    6999    04004           0.00            
WED 12Z 17-FEB  -5.4    -1.3     128    5855    04004           0.00            
WED 18Z 17-FEB   4.5     0.1     131    5245    00002           0.00            
THU 00Z 18-FEB   1.4     0.9     131    4752    02002           0.01            
THU 06Z 18-FEB  -0.4    -0.5     130    5136    04003           0.14            
THU 12Z 18-FEB   1.2     3.5     132    7813    07005           0.88            
THU 18Z 18-FEB   6.1     1.6     132    7388    33004           0.11            
FRI 00Z 19-FEB   2.6     1.3     131    5146    36005           0.04            
FRI 06Z 19-FEB   0.2    -0.4     130    1938    00005           0.00            
FRI 12Z 19-FEB  -1.2    -3.0     129       1    00005           0.00            
FRI 18Z 19-FEB   2.1    -4.1     129     402    35005           0.00            
SAT 00Z 20-FEB  -0.7    -5.5     129     727    33005           0.00            
SAT 06Z 20-FEB  -5.8    -6.9     128       0    04001           0.00            
SAT 12Z 20-FEB  -6.7    -7.6     127       0    06002           0.00

The Euro has a razor sharp cutoff where it falls from 3+ to around an inch right around TYS or just NE of it. This explains why. 

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

The Euro has a razor sharp cutoff where it falls from 3+ to around an inch right around TYS or just NE of it. This explains why. 

More than likely from the inverted trough

[Stovepipe]

I'm interested to see just how cold we can get here tonight.  NWS low is 19, currently 20.

Chickens are pissed.

[Shocker0]

3 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

I'm interested to see just how cold we can get here tonight.  NWS low is 19, currently 20.

Chickens are pissed.

The forecast here suggests a gradual warming overnight but we'll see. It bottomed out at 10° a few hours ago and now sits at 11°

[jaxjagman]

 Text might be over doing it to some aspect,it's when the the inverted trough starts to come into play you can see clearly it is bringing with it a warm nose.should effect Nashville just as well but not as bad.Of course the Euro might be wrong,but that is what it is showing

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Stovepipe said:

I'm interested to see just how cold we can get here tonight.  NWS low is 19, currently 20.

Chickens are pissed.

Hey, got two dustings today alone.  My house had nothing during one of those, and drove two miles to find the rooftops covered.   Made me think of Lake Effect snow bands....

 

Please read my post in a SNL Jack Handy voice...

[John1122]

Rgem may have too much of a cold bias but here it is.  

[Shocker0]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Rgem may have too much of a cold bias but here it is.  

The reverse horseshoe effect...that'd be an unusual one

[PowellVolz]

All the PWS around my house are reporting 18-19 degrees. Already below NWS and TWC app low temps.


.

[jaxjagman]

[Stovepipe]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Hey, got two dustings today alone.  My house had nothing during one of those, and drove two miles to find the rooftops covered.   Made me think of Lake Effect snow bands....

 

Please read my post in a SNL Jack Handy voice...

[Carvers Gap]

So, who wants to talk about the 0z GFS-para?

[jaxjagman]

That's some serious ZR the models are showing into WV

[Save the itchy algae!]

25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

So, who wants to talk about the 0z GFS-para?

I’m off work now so you can talk dirty.

19 in Powell 21 in Farragut. Mostly clear skies with perhaps a slight haze.

[John1122]

29 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

So, who wants to talk about the 0z GFS-para?

It's beastly. Hopefully it's even half right and we'd all be happy. 

[Dsty2001]

11 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's beastly. Hopefully it's even half right and we'd all be happy. 

Ohhh i wanna see

[John1122]

5 minutes ago, Dsty2001 said:

Ohhh i wanna see

Didn't end as well for Western areas as I expected it might.  

[John1122]

RAP

[John1122]

The Crazy Uncle. 

[Stovepipe]

5 minutes ago, John1122 said:

RAP

 

[jaxjagman]

Looks like its already picking up some to our NW

[Stovepipe]

I reached my projected low of 19 at midnight.  Curious what the bottom is.

 

[jaxjagman]

[Shocker0]

9 minutes ago, Stovepipe said:

I reached my projected low of 19 at midnight.  Curious what the bottom is.

 

I'd say you're about at the bottom now. It got down to 10 here about 3 hours ago and is now up to 12.