February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

[CG2]

Cause who doesn't love a good NAM run where the ice isn't subtracted....

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

I'll be honest, if it's going to be washed all away by the rain shortly thereafter........I would rather it just be all rain instead.  

It wouldn't be washed away by rain. It actually would freeze into a solid block as the next front passes and temps fall behind the system. Several models have it switching back to snow. 

[Shocker0]

11 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It wouldn't be washed away by rain. It actually would freeze into a solid block as the next front passes and temps fall behind the system. Several models have it switching back to snow. 

Ours is showing a 60% chance of snow Thursday night with less than an inch Accumulations now. Whatever happens, Friday is probably gonna be a messy commute.

[david30]

I for one could do with out all the freezing rain expected.  This last storm, we didn’t change over until the very tail end, ended up with about 3 inches of sleet on all roads.  It’s going to be forever getting that off and now the huge threat of freezing rain.  Wish for once, the warm nose forecast is wrong.  We’ve been below freezing since some time last Thursday.  In the teens since early Sunday and the water pressure in the whole town has slowed to a crawl.  Don’t need power outages on top of that.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro Control and ensemble members for le thump:

 

 

[PowellVolz]

Euro Control and ensemble members for le thump:

 

 

Not in love with those ensembles if you are in the eastern valley. They are a little better for me since I’m due north of Knoxville.


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[CG2]

31 minutes ago, david30 said:

I for one could do with out all the freezing rain expected.  This last storm, we didn’t change over until the very tail end, ended up with about 3 inches of sleet on all roads.  It’s going to be forever getting that off and now the huge threat of freezing rain.  Wish for once, the warm nose forecast is wrong.  We’ve been below freezing since some time last Thursday.  In the teens since early Sunday and the water pressure in the whole town has slowed to a crawl.  Don’t need power outages on top of that.

Been awesome having Mississippi posters on the forum.  Really glad to have you all back posting.  

[Shocker0]

7 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Not in love with those ensembles if you are in the eastern valley. They are a little better for me since I’m due north of Knoxville.


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Strange seeing the Smokies get blanked while everywhere west of them gets hammered

[AMZ8990]

Winter storm watches up for west TN And North MS.  Winter storm warnings from Jonesboro, ARK going east for the rest of the state of Arkansas, at this time.

[McMinnWx]

The latest HRRR hammers the valley.

[McMinnWx]

[Coach B]

5 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

Chattanooga!

[jaxjagman]

My maps shows the heaviest snows in the west,the HRRR,is that a old run?

[PowellVolz]

My maps shows the heaviest snows in the west,the HRRR,is that a old run?

The 12z HRRR hammered the whole state basically.




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[Mrwolf1972]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

My maps shows the heaviest snows in the west,the HRRR,is that a old run?

That's the 18z hrr

[PowellVolz]

18z




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[jaxjagman]

Just now, Mrwolf1972 said:

That's the 18z hrr

No that is the 12z,old run

 

[Dsty2001]

In that HRRR map, 15 miles separates no snow from 7" ...

[jaxjagman]

[Mrwolf1972]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

No that is the 12z,old run

 

This is my 18z hrr in mine yours is kuch mines 10-1 

[dwagner88]

It would take a very strange scenario to wind up with 3-4" of snow in downtown Chattanooga, and nothing in Polk Co. In fact that might be unheard of.

[Mrwolf1972]

18z nam is to warm for snow in valley.

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

It would take a very strange scenario to wind up with 3-4" of snow in downtown Chattanooga, and nothing in Polk Co. In fact that might be unheard of.

I've seen it happen here in Monroe..Sweetwater to Mt Vernon area pickup 3"-4"....Tellico nada but rain. If the downsloping winds are strong enough, it will scour the foothills that bank right up against the Smokies/CNF quickly, while 5-10 miles away locks in the cold way longer.

[Vol4Life]

3 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

18z nam is to warm for snow in valley.

Without a doubt, that will be what MRX uses for their afternoon update.  Lol!

[McMinnWx]

How well has the HRRR done this winter vs. the NAM?  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The 18z NAM is still the warmest model and most aggressive with the warm nose, but let's also consider the trend it has over the past 6 runs:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

850 wind trend past 6 runs too:

 

There' certainly still rug pull potential for sure, but that trend, if not our friend, is at least friendlier. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

NAM 3km has been a little steadier, but IMO it also made a jump south at 18z :

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One more jump or two and the NAM will look a lot like everything else. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

14 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

How well has the HRRR done this winter vs. the NAM?  

I feel like it has done well in modeling the boundary layer issues I've had with storms here vs other modeling. That said, I can't remember how far the lead time was for it nailing those,. It's still pretty far out in HRRR land right now.