February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

[Shocker0]

Sleet/snow mix between Crossville and Monterey. I'd say 80/20 mix right now but hopefully turns to all snow soon

 

[Kasper]

15 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

Not sure how much relevance this has for the valley. Cullman is on the west side of the plateau and has more access to low level cold air than we do. 

[Wintersnow888]

Thanks, I have sleet !!! 

[McMinnWx]

4 minutes ago, Kasper said:

You sure, I think that’s ash lol, I see nothing

Lol yup! I’m over on Crestway. It’s still coming down. 

[ShawnEastTN]

Looks like a Mping of snow on Lookout Mtn.

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[BlunderStorm]

T:34 DP:27 Can't wait to get into the action in a few hours.

[Wintersnow888]

9 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

It's sleeting or snowing here according to my security camera so it should be pretty close to there. I'll go outside and see if it's snow or sleet real quick

Finally!!! Sleet and a little snow mixing in......dewpoint up to 25 from 22

[jaxjagman]

esoscale Discussion 0113
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0744 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

   Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into eastern Kentucky

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 180144Z - 180615Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is possible from Middle
   Tennessee into eastern Kentucky. There is some indication in
   observations and forecast soundings that sleet could mix in at
   times. Snowfall should decrease from west to east starting at
   midnight CST with lingering freezing rain/drizzle possible.

   DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to locally heavy snow has developed
   within an area of modest 850 mb warm advection across eastern
   Kentucky. To the southwest, mid-level ascent has helped to produce
   moderate to heavy snowfall in the Memphis vicinity. This ascent will
   continue to overspread portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee as
   well as eastern Kentucky this evening. The expectation is for
   moderate to locally heavy snowfall to occur in this region. The 00Z
   BNA observed sounding showed a 0 C near-isothermal layer around 850
   mb with sleet being intermittently observed in Nashville. With
   low-level warm advection forecast to increase during the evening, it
   is possible that some sleet with mix in with snow, particularly with
   southern extent. Snowfall rates are likely to diminish from west to
   east starting at about midnight CST/1 AM EST as lift/moisture in the
   dendritic growth layer decreases with the shortwave passage.
   Thereafter, lingering light freezing rain/drizzle will be possible.

[Shocker0]

Just now, Wintersnow888 said:

Finally!!! Sleet and a little snow mixing in......dewpoint up to 25 from 22

Same, we are also at 29 now

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Heavy doodle dogs right now here in Morgan County:

 

 

[PowellVolz]

esoscale Discussion 0113  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  0744 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021  Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into eastern Kentucky  Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation   Valid 180144Z - 180615Z  SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is possible from Middle  Tennessee into eastern Kentucky. There is some indication in  observations and forecast soundings that sleet could mix in at  times. Snowfall should decrease from west to east starting at  midnight CST with lingering freezing rain/drizzle possible.  DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to locally heavy snow has developed  within an area of modest 850 mb warm advection across eastern  Kentucky. To the southwest, mid-level ascent has helped to produce  moderate to heavy snowfall in the Memphis vicinity. This ascent will  continue to overspread portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee as  well as eastern Kentucky this evening. The expectation is for  moderate to locally heavy snowfall to occur in this region. The 00Z  BNA observed sounding showed a 0 C near-isothermal layer around 850  mb with sleet being intermittently observed in Nashville. With  low-level warm advection forecast to increase during the evening, it  is possible that some sleet with mix in with snow, particularly with  southern extent. Snowfall rates are likely to diminish from west to  east starting at about midnight CST/1 AM EST as lift/moisture in the  dendritic growth layer decreases with the shortwave passage.  Thereafter, lingering light freezing rain/drizzle will be possible.

Very interesting. I’m assuming they believe our thermal profile is good enough for sleet and snow east of the plateau?


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[jaxjagman]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

Very interesting. I’m assuming they believe our thermal profile is good enough for sleet and snow east of the plateau?


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Seems that way

[ShawnEastTN]

Here is the image to go with Jax Storm Prediction Center Heavy Snow outlook.

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[bearman]

Still dry hear in the Cedar Bluff area of West Knoxville but their is an air of expectation outside.

[Bigbald]

4 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Here is the image to go with Jax Storm Prediction Center Heavy Snow outlook.

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Be a hard one to swallow if SWVA misses along that cusp again. NAM suites have played around with this depiction alot it the last 96 hours.  Afraid it might be right for mby

[GeneR4]

Moderate snow here in Madison, AL.  Backyard temp 30.

[TellicoWx]

Sleet beginning here now..36

[TellicoWx]

01z HRRR has the latest low/mid level data in it now..let's see what it spits out.

[bluegrassweather71]

Virga storm here 

[PowellVolz]

Not sure what the wind is doing in middle Tennessee but it’s still out of the NE at my house just going by the feel of it. My area is wide open and I can usually get a good idea of the wind.


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[PowellVolz]

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[ShawnEastTN]

I had sleet for only about 20 minutes then I've been back to virga since that initial sleet.

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[TellicoWx]

Huntsville has went from nothing to 1.5" in the past 15-20 mins

[dwagner88]

I can hear more sleet hitting the windows here. Temp is down to 37, but I’m almost saturated. 

[John1122]

Just now, TellicoWx said:

Huntsville has went from nothing to 1.5" in the past 15-20 mins

They are under a very heavy band. Hopefully that heads up this way.  

[McMinnWx]

Was Huntsville supposed to get that much?

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

They are under a very heavy band. Hopefully that heads up this way.  

Hope it does for you guys...should be the lift the MCD was talking about

[Sweetpea Farms]

So far, not snowing as heavily as predicted. There's about an inch on the ground in southern Lincoln County, 7 miles above the AL line.

[ShawnEastTN]

I can hear more sleet hitting the windows here. Temp is down to 37, but I’m almost saturated. 

Dynamics under heavy returns might help drag temps lower for you.

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[TellicoWx]

2 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

Was Huntsville supposed to get that much?

No, they were under a WWA this afternoon..just got upgraded to a Warning an hour or so ago