February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

[AMZ8990]

55 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

 Mesoscale Discussion 0111
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

   Areas affected...southern/central Arkansas...southwest through
   Middle Tennessee...and northwestern Mississippi

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 172122Z - 180115Z

   SUMMARY...Areas of heavy snow will continue across the discussion
   area for several more hours.

   DISCUSSION...Recent observations suggest that the heaviest of
   snowfall in the discussion area (with rates likely exceeding 1" per
   hour) was occurring in the general vicinity of Little Rock, Pine
   Bluff, and Camden in central/southern Arkansas, with lighter, but
   still moderate snowfall observed farther northeast toward Memphis
   and Nashville in Tennessee.  The region continues to reside in a
   regime characterized by appreciable lift due to isentropic ascent,
   with strong low-level flow across central/southern Louisiana
   impinging on a shallow cold airmass.  Though the general focus of
   warm advection has begun to shift slightly to the east, additional
   ascent from a mid-level wave apparent via water vapor imagery over
   north-central Texas was also likely contributing to enhanced
   snowfall rates in the region.  This general regime should continue
   for at least several more hours (perhaps through 01-03Z or so)
   before beginning to taper off from west to east in Arkansas later
   tonight.  Beneath heavier precipitation bands, 2" per hour snowfall
   rates cannot be ruled out.

   ..Cook.. 02/17/2021

 Here in bolivar we Picked up 1/4” all snow in the first hourly measurement attempt, (I was late so the first one was actually 1hr20min lol).  Should have my 2nd measurement around 5:30PM:  Moderate snow falling currently with quarter sized flakes starting to mix into the dime sized flakes that have been already falling.  

[Shocker0]

I guess this storm is supposed to pickup intensity as it heads eastward? Seems like a lot of heavy returns on radar currently are actually falling as lighter sleet/snow in the mid-state.

[dwagner88]

The cloud cover seemed to time itself perfectly to maximize the amount of solar heat that could be absorbed here. It’s now fully cloudy and 41. Ready for my 33 degree rain. 

[John1122]

Just now, Shocker0 said:

I guess this storm is supposed to pickup intensity as it heads eastward? Seems like a lot of heavy returns on radar currently are actually falling as lighter sleet/snow in the mid-state.

It's just getting rolling in the gulf.  It's going to have about 1.5 inches of QPF to work with as it heads East. 

[Olhausen]

Getting pounded by by big heavy snow flakes here for almost 45 minutes now.

[ShawnEastTN]

The cloud cover seemed to time itself perfectly to maximize the amount of solar heat that could be absorbed here. It’s now fully cloudy and 41. Ready for my 33 degree rain. 

Are you dropping though since it began to get dark? My temp topped out at 41, it's mostly cloudy here and my temp is still falling down to 37 now with DP 24.7.

 

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[Olhausen]

Actually big flakes stopped and can here sleet falling. Hopefully that doesn’t last long cause this storm would be big if it stayed all snow for the duration.

[Shocker0]

10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's just getting rolling in the gulf.  It's going to have about 1.5 inches of QPF to work with as it heads East. 

Makes sense and I did see where the further east the higher QPFs there were, just wasn't sure if we should be concerned with sleet or ice like the middle/west areas. I appreciate it though.

[jaxjagman]

20 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

 Here in bolivar we Picked up 1/4” all snow in the first hourly measurement attempt, (I was late so the first one was actually 1hr20min lol).  Should have my 2nd measurement around 5:30PM:  Moderate snow falling currently with quarter sized flakes starting to mix into the dime sized flakes that have been already falling.  

Nice

[dwagner88]

8 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Are you dropping though since it began to get dark? My temp topped out at 41, it's mostly cloudy here and my temp is still falling down to 37 now with DP 24.7.

 

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 Not really. I’ve been stalled at 41 for around an hour, and my DP is 28. Unless something magical happens dynamically overhead, rain is coming. 

[VOLtage]

I'm down to 38F/DP 28.0 here in Maryville with temps falling.

[Shocker0]

OHX: 

We just released our 00Z sounding here at the office and it appears that some "warmer" air just above the surface is trying to play spoiler again for our snow lovers.

We have sleet (look like little pellets of ice) here at our office now, how about you?

 

---BTW we are down to 30 here now

[McMinnWx]

Latest HRRR brings snow back to the valley. 

[PowellVolz]

OHX: 
We just released our 00Z sounding here at the office and it appears that some "warmer" air just above the surface is trying to play spoiler again for our snow lovers. We have sleet (look like little pellets of ice) here at our office now, how about you?   ---BTW we are down to 30 here now

.

[AMZ8990]

46 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

 Here in bolivar we Picked up 1/4” all snow in the first hourly measurement attempt, (I was late so the first one was actually 1hr20min lol).  Should have my 2nd measurement around 5:30PM:  Moderate snow falling currently with quarter sized flakes starting to mix into the dime sized flakes that have been already falling.  

3/4” from 4:30-5:30PM in MBY.  

I’ll be back in with another update at 6:30.

[xAllVolsx]

4 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

Latest HRRR brings snow back to the valley. 

Good greif. It's like watching tennis.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The Carter Fold is at least cooling off now, lol. Maces Springs was near 56 this afternoon, already back down to 40 now. HRRR for the win at TRI? 

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, xAllVolsx said:

Good greif. It's like watching tennis.

The HRRR has KTRI as the sweet spot while WISE hardly any at all. Don't know how its getting that. KTRI hit 50 today, Wise 36.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

There are places near TRI that beat me by ten degrees this PM that are now colder than me by a few degrees. 

[Matthew70]

10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

.

Yep the snow dome is screwing us again.  Well this time next week winter is done.  60 less than a week away!  Wohoo!

[jaxjagman]

24 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

OHX: 

We just released our 00Z sounding here at the office and it appears that some "warmer" air just above the surface is trying to play spoiler again for our snow lovers.

We have sleet (look like little pellets of ice) here at our office now, how about you?

 

---BTW we are down to 30 here now

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@Tobiewx how farest ye? 

[Silas Lang]

Could the tennis and ping ponging on models be due to struggling to recognize p-types? 

[BlunderStorm]

T:37 DP:29 up in SWVA. Cooling quickly and partly cloudy.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, BlunderStorm said:

T:37 DP:29 up in SWVA. Cooling quickly and partly cloudy.

What was your high today up that way? 

[ShawnEastTN]

My temp is still falling down to 36 DP holding tough at 24.9

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[PowellVolz]

I’m 36.3 now, dropping nicely


.

[TellicoWx]

3 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Could the tennis and ping ponging on models be due to struggling to recognize p-types? 

Somewhat..soundings thru the column are bouncing between 32-33 each run..so what's there at 32, may be sleet and gone at 33 on the next run

[BlunderStorm]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

What was your high today up that way? 

45 at about 4 PM.

[realdeal2414]

I’m on the very eastern end of Hawkins Co..actually live in Kingsport and it’s actually fairly clear here cause the moon is showing itself. Partly cloudy..temp is 40. Was 45 about an hour ago.