February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

[PowellVolz]

MRX kept the WWA for Knox Co. in their zone forecast it’s 100% rain the whole time.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Well it's 343 PM. The NAMs are out and the 12km didn't look too terrible for the plateau west. Now what? Too early for booze and all hope isn't 100% lost yet, at least for me. I guess it's watch the webcams time. Here's some snow near AMZ just east of Memphis:

https://smartway.tn.gov/traffic?features=incident,traffic,cameras&position=35.13802557,-89.4291555,13

[PowellVolz]

What in the world...




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[McMinnWx]

Latest from MRX. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Closer to Memphis:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

What in the world...




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They took my MoCo reverse dollop away. Sad. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like we get one more clear section and sun before sunset:

[dwagner88]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks like we get one more clear section and sun before sunset:

Was just about to post that the sun is shining brightly again.

[Mrwolf1972]

19z hrr is now showing mix and freezing rain again 

[codgator]

Just picking up here in Franklin. 27 Started as sleet - now rates are picking up and flipping over to snow.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Rates overcame! 

[Kentucky]

Down to 28

[John1122]

Getting clear just after sunset would be perfect for everyone for a quick drop in temps. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, John1122 said:

Getting clear just after sunset would be perfect for everyone for a quick drop in temps. 

I was about to say that, lol. Maybe we can time that last section of clearness for a quick few degree drop. 

[xAllVolsx]

14 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

What in the world...




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They are teasing us. Only explanation.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

MRX AFD is up.

excerpt:

 

"For this evening and tonight, strong jet structure will move
across the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Some models
are so a 300mb jet of 165-170kts over the Ohio valley. Models show
very strong upper divergence with the jet configuration between
04-09Z. The Ageostrophic Vertical Circulation with the jet will
produce dynamic cooling as well as the wet bulb cooling due to
initial dry airmass.

A period of heavy snow (some sleet) is possible across the
Plateau, western sections of the Tennessee valley, northeast
Tennessee, and southwest Virginia. The strong warm air advection
and isentropic lift will produce widespread precipitation.
Eventually the warm air advection will win out with model
soundings show precipitation transitioning to rain area-wide soon
after daybreak."

[Shocker0]

NWS Nashville raised my point forecast from 2-4" to 3-5". I don't really see it as it is warmer here by about 5 degrees compared to 10 miles down the road in Monterey. Oddly they still have Monterey at 2-4" though. Confusing to me.

[John1122]

34/21 here. Much colder just to my west and north as well by 6-7 degrees. The SE ridge vs the Arctic high. 

[Carvers Gap]

18z RGEM has run....added more snow for TRI.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think it is just going to come down to who gets right on that edge of the heaviest precip and can keep it snow the longest. It's a question of where the firehose sets up, and Nashville probably thinks it's more likely over Cumberland County. I really do think 3-5 and maybe more is right, for whoever gets under the firehose. It is going to absolutely rip. Every sounding I have looked at from every model shows great forcing into the DGZ, they just differ on 700mb - the surface temps. 

[Kasper]

41 with a 26 Dewpoint, I’m screwed and screw you Waa

[jaxjagman]

Snowing,just started,hoping that band to our west holds up

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think it is just going to come down to who gets right on that edge of the heaviest precip and can keep it snow the longest. It's a question of where the firehose sets up, and Nashville probably thinks it's more likely over Cumberland County. I really do think 3-5 and maybe more is right, for whoever gets under the firehose. It is going to absolutely rip. Every sounding I have looked at from every model shows great forcing into the DGZ, they just differ on 700mb - the surface temps. 

And of course as soon as I type that I go check the 18z soundings and they still look good, just not as good, lol. 

[John1122]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

Snowing,just started,hoping that bad to our west holds up

I hope you guys get 6+!

[PowellVolz]

Looks like we get one more clear section and sun before sunset:

Seriously though... has the system moved east at all the last 6 hours or so?


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[AMZ8990]

41 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Closer to Memphis:

Moderate snowfall with decent size flakes falling here just west of bolivar, we’re about 60 miles east/northeast of Memphis.

[BNAwx]

Some pretty fat flakes coming down now and starting to pick up on intensity.

[1234snow]

46 degrees now.

[McMinnWx]

Schools are starting to close down this way.  Bradley and Cleveland are out tomorrow.

[jaxjagman]

That band is just training over the same spot