February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

[Shocker0]

Plateau must be blocking the cold air again. It's 38 here in Crossville and only 27 in Cookeville 20 minutes away off the plateau

[Holston_River_Rambler]

8 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

Plateau must be blocking the cold air again. It's 38 here in Crossville and only 27 in Cookeville 20 minutes away off the plateau

I think they’ve just lucked out wrt cloud cover today. 

[PowellVolz]

I think they’ve just lucked out wrt cloud cover today. 

I was thinking about that also. North of 40 in the valley is very overcast now.


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[jaxjagman]

Mesoscale Discussion 0110
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021

   Areas affected...northern Mississippi through middle Tennessee and
   far southern Kentucky

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 171900Z - 172200Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snow continues to spread
   northeastward into the discussion area from the southwest.  1" per
   hour rates will gradually become increasingly likely over the course
   of the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Heavier reflectivities are beginning to appear in radar
   mosaic imagery from bear Oxford, MS to southwest of Nashville, TN
   over the past hour.  The precipitation itself is likely tied to
   isentropic lift across upstream areas of Arkansas/Louisiana where
   50-60 kt low-level flow continues to impinge on a shallow
   sub-freezing airmass.  The precipitation itself is outpacing most
   model guidance, and with low-level moistening occurring beneath the
   precipitation shield, areas of moderate to occasionally heavy snow
   should begin across the discussion area over the next 1-2 hours or
   so.  Snow should be the be dominant precip type, though point
   forecast soundings indicate enough of a warm layer aloft to support
   occasional mixing with sleet at times.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

[ShawnEastTN]

Made it to 38 but it finally seems to be overcast still NE winds though. DP has come up a bit to 23.

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[codgator]

Now we are talking - love it when you’re in Normans hatch marks

 

[McMinnWx]

Snow disappeared from the valley on the last HRRR run.

[Shocker0]

8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think they’ve just lucked out wrt cloud cover today. 

Hope so,  they were reporting mostly cloudy conditions like us though. It does feel a lot cooler as soon as the sun is behind the clouds here though

[AMZ8990]

Light snow/sleet starting to fall at my house just west of bolivar.  We’re at 25 right now.

[Kasper]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Make sure you drink plenty of water and stay out of the sun.

Beer is hydrating right?

[bluegrassweather71]

Cold air stubborn here in the London, KY area. Still sitting at 23 degrees with thickening cloud cover. Unless things change rapidly, the 32 forecasted by JKL through mid afternoon could bust.  We have a thick layer of ice and 1-2” of snow on top. 
 

still many without power after the last storm 

[Wintersnow888]

I have light rain here at 33 and dew point 22 . Don't have a weather station yet, just separate weather tools that my grandfather installed, so it might not be as accurate  lol,. 

[PowellVolz]

18z HRRR now looks like the NAM in the valley. Surface temps never get lower than 35ish. 850mb line runs up the east slopes of the plateau into Kentucky. Good luck to everyone else.


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[1234snow]

44 degrees here.

Constant sunshine all day.

Fool me once shame on the models. Fool me twice shame on me.

[Olhausen]

Temp got up to 34.5 but now down to 33.3 as snow approaches. Will be interesting to see if the lower totals the euro is showing of 1.9 inches end up correct. Or the higher totals of the gfs and nam verify between 3-4 inches.

[Olhausen]

As I mentioned a few days earlier I have to think the nearly 5 inches of snow, sleet and ZR on the ground has helped keep the temps from being even higher.

[VOLtage]

Looking like yet another cold rain event for the valley.

Ughhh. I'm ready for sunshine, spring, and severe weather season already.

Hoping for better luck next winter.

[PowellVolz]

45 at 5k feet. We’re toast in the valley.


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[PowellVolz]

Looking like yet another cold rain event for the valley.
Ughhh. I'm ready for sunshine, spring, and severe weather season already.
Hoping for better luck next winter.

I doubt the temps even fall off much tonight considering how warm it is above us already.


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[Kentucky]

Temps rocketed from 16 to 29, then hit a brick wall. I do not see the forecasted high of 34 happening, unless it happens at 11:59 pm. Might be the biggest snow of the season here, with the worst timing ever. lots on ice on the trees, wont take much.

[fountainguy97]

Easy come easy go I guess. 
 

From a non event to an event back to a non event over this way. Scorching at 47 this afternoon. Not a chance there is any major ice or any accumulation.

hope you guys score! And then bring on the 70s. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'm thinking even on the edge of the plateau on Morgan County here I'm SOL. 37/25. Expect John and Cumberland county crew to do better though. 

If this does flop for me, what a flop. Powdery high ratio snow all day yesterday with CAA, to rain and 33 this evening. 1030+ arctic high over the Great Lakes and a low of 15 overnight.  Apparently going with the warmest model is just a good rule of thumb for areas south of Canada now. The NAM even tried to come around for a few runs, lol. 

 

[McMinnWx]

That's disappointing.  The HRRR showed snow up until 18Z and it has just disappeared for my neck of the woods.  Oh well.  Good luck to everyone else!

[TellicoWx]

34 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

45 at 5k feet. We’re toast in the valley.


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Not necessarily...look at the DP, they are setting in very dry air (heats up quicker with sunshine)...you can see how dry it is on the soundings.

 

Problem with the HRRR now, isn't the cold retreating..it's a moisture problem. It's now seeing a dry nose hold longer in the valley vs the earlier runs. 19z vs 16z

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Careful Tellico, you're gonna pull me back off my ledge... 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I wish I could have a drone I could legally fly up to 500mb at times like this, lol, for my own private soundings. 

[ShawnEastTN]

I wish I could have a drone I could legally fly up to 500mb at times like this, lol, for my own private soundings. 

That would be pretty freaking awesome. Easy, accurate on demand soundings above your house sounds like a dream.

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[TellicoWx]

Topped out (so far lol) at 42.1 down to 40.3 now (DP also falling again). It's like any other winter system in the central/southern valley...will have to thread a very small needle. Cold retreats too quick (moisture streams in) get rain...cold holds too long/stronger (moisture gets wasted on virga) 

[Runman292]

I recently sent a message to MRX on facebook asking about my neck of the woods (Oak Ridge). Here were their thoughts as of 3:30:

It looks like you may see some mixed precipitation overnight which could be mainly snow at least briefly.  Could be an inch or two of snow for Oak Ridge, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty and it could end up being less.