February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Selfishly pulling for teh para GFS with all I got, lol:

 

 

Clouds have moved back in here. We jumped up to 28, lol after 17 at day break. DP c. 21 in my area. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Monterey is at 30, so that makes me feel a little better about my 28, lol 

[Carvers Gap]

11 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

So because we don’t see this every day. Does this change the feeder winds to more out of the west? Would this effect the warm nose?


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Double edged sword IMO.  As Boone notes, it cuts the warm nose.  However, heavier rates may well have forced the air column to cool more efficiently.  

[PowellVolz]

MRX....

Key Messages...
1) A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain can be expected
across the region tonight and Thursday morning. Wintry mix will
transition to all rain by Thursday morning.
2) Very challenging forecast on precipitation type. Initial
precipitation will be influenced by wet bulb cooling due to dry
airmass and eventually strong dynamic forcing between 03-10Z.
However, models strong strong warm air advection/isentropic lift
which will fight to change precipitation to rain.
3) The strong system will also produce widespread rainfall amounts
of 1 to 1 1/2 inches with localized 2 inches+. Given the soggy
soil conditions, most of this will be runoff which may cause some
localized flooding issues.

For Today...
Little changes planned for the forecast. Areas of cloud cover
will move across the region especially the Plateau and southwest
Virginia. Current forecast highs look good.

For Tonight and Thursday, strong dynamic forcing due to enhanced
jet structure (300mb jet near 150kts). Strongest forcing will be
between 03-10Z with impressive isentropic lift across the region.
Will be a very challenging forecast of precipitation type with low
confidence of snow/sleet accumultations in the valley locations


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[PowellVolz]

Now it’s cleared back up in Knoxville


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[dwagner88]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

Now it’s cleared back up in Knoxville


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Same here. Up 6 degrees in the last hour. Now above freezing at 33.1. GFS may have been right. We could hit 50 today at this rate.

[Shocker0]

28 here in Crossville now...yucky. Somehow the ground is still completely white though which is stunning to me as powdery as the snow was yesterday. Mostly cloudy but sun is peeking through currently. 

[Kasper]

25 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

Same here. Up 6 degrees in the last hour. Now above freezing at 33.1. GFS may have been right. We could hit 50 today at this rate.

 

[ShawnEastTN]

Sitting at 33, DP 19, I can see clouds in the SW horizon... Those mother's need to start trucking this way.

 

Plus side my weather station is getting consistent winds from the NE.

 

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[McMinnWx]

33 here, DP 21

[Shocker0]

3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Sitting at 33, DP 19, I can see clouds in the SW horizon... Those mother's need to start trucking this way.

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Sun is still out here west of Crossville

[ShawnEastTN]

Yeah its frustrating, but I am noticing more and more high clouds the sunlight looks like it's getting more and more filtered. I don't think it'll much longer before clouds covering the region.

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[Olhausen]

Still Sunny way back west in White House. Forecasted high of 30 but already at 31.1. 

[John1122]

28/18 here. High clouds filtering sun. 

[PowellVolz]

33 in Knoxville. Winds are still out of the NE though.

 

 

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[Carvers Gap]

Sitting at 75 here in Kingsport.   

[Shocker0]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sitting at 75 here in Kingsport.   

Dang, the cold air that swept in Monday night hasn't quite gotten there yet i guess

[TellicoWx]

Something interesting of note..the HRRR has been trending just a hair stronger with the HP influence down the valley with each run vs 12z..it's just enough to hold the snow in the valley longer. Interested in seeing if this trend continues. 12z vs 16z

[Shocker0]

4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Something interesting of note..the HRRR has been trending just a hair stronger with the HP influence down the valley with each run vs 12z..it's just enough to hold the snow in the valley longer. Interested in seeing if this trend continues. 12z vs 16z

 

Top is latest?

[TellicoWx]

Yeah, 16z top..12z bottom

[Holston_River_Rambler]

19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Sitting at 75 here in Kingsport.   

They firing up that torch on Jared drive?

 

For those of you who don't know, Kingsport has a giant propane heater they fire up if snow is threatening. Quite effective. 

[Shocker0]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

They firing up that torch on Jared drive?

 

For those of you who don't know, Kingsport has a giant propane heater they fire up if snow is threatening. Quite effective. 

Excuse me for being dumb enough to believe that for a minute lmao.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Shocker0 said:

Excuse me for being dumb enough to believe that for a minute lmao.

It ain't too far from the truth, lol. I thought I took a pic of that a few weeks ago in Kingsport, but I didn't, so I had to improvise. 

[Dsty2001]

Curse that smell in Kingsport 

[Shocker0]

It's cloudy here now (pic is looking west) so hopefully it stays that way. Temperatures have stabilized around 31°

 

[TellicoWx]

You can see what the HRRR is starting to pickup on in the globals. If you look at the 1022 line on the 12z Euro vs 12z NAM...you can see how the HP gets wedged down the valley (snow/ice) vs letting go and retreating north (rain)

[PowellVolz]

You can see what the HRRR is starting to pickup on in the globals. If you look at the 1022 line on the 12z Euro vs 12z NAM...you can see how the HP gets wedged down the valley (snow/ice) vs letting go and retreating north (rain)

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[Kasper]

Meanwhile here in Athens, summer has officially started, Balmy 38 degrees 

[Carvers Gap]

43 minutes ago, Shocker0 said:

Excuse me for being dumb enough to believe that for a minute lmao.

Two words for ya in regard to that...process upset.

[Carvers Gap]

15 minutes ago, Kasper said:

Meanwhile here in Athens, summer has officially started, Balmy 38 degrees 

Make sure you drink plenty of water and stay out of the sun.