February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

[Sweetpea Farms]

It looks currently like a lot of models are lining up in agreement for this to maybe be a mostly rain event for me in Lincoln County, seven miles above Alabama. I sure hope so. All the best to others facing another sinter storm. It looks like we may not advance past advisory status on this one, as of now. Things will be clearer, of course, tomorrow morning.

[ShawnEastTN]

  On 2/17/2021 at 12:17 AM, PowellVolz said:

The purple has slid a little east because I’m in it now but wasn’t being.

 

 

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Same I'm now right on the edge of the purple/pink, I wasn't the last run.

 

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[Shocker0]

  On 2/17/2021 at 12:18 AM, PowellVolz said:

 

This looks like the NAM IMO


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That's what I was thinking. Whatever they are using has been way off this winter though

[Jed33]

  On 2/17/2021 at 12:15 AM, PowellVolz said:

It was either 2018 or 15. I cannot remember but I 100% remember the setup and what actually happened. Ober Gatlinburg had rain with mid 40’s. I’m 10 miles N of Knoxville and never broke freezing, ended up with 4-8” of snow and a little sleet.


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It would be 2015 then bc 2018 was not a kind year to the eastern valley.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Might be a NAMing incoming. Big jump on the SREF ARW members east between 15z and 21z

21z:

15z:

 

 

SREF NMB members look pretty similar to me to 15z, (which was closer to the above, 21z ARW)

 

[Carvers Gap]

18z GEFS mean is stout....

[CG2]

You don't see this across the forum very often as a mean.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The 18z Euro's evolution:

 

Is it starting to sniff out some end game action from the left over energy with the trough? 

[Shocker0]

We've finally broken the cold weather barrier in East Tennessee wide open...now let it ❄ knee deep for the forum and we will all happily wander off into the Spring.

[Jed33]

In regard to that previous storm-it was February 21, 2015. I just went back and found it. I’ll put a snippet in banter since it’s not pertaining to this storm, although it would be nice for some if it could play out this way and it would be terrible for others.

[John1122]

The GFS is struggling with this, the Para is not having the waffling.  

I wonder if the hi-res are better able to see the cold in place? 

The 12k NAM is lower res than the para-GFS, Euro, RGem, and obviously the HRRR and RAP. The 3k NAM has way better res than the 12k and GFS and is pretty wintery, especially compared to the 12k. 

[Shocker0]

  On 2/17/2021 at 12:45 AM, Jed33 said:

In regard to that previous storm-it was February 21, 2015. I just went back and found it. I’ll put a snippet in banter since it’s not pertaining to this storm, although it would be nice for some if it could play out this way and it would be terrible for others.

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Lol oh yeah we were all rain for that event...just 24 degrees. 

[TellicoWx]

0z HRRR picking up on the cold overnight more vs 18z in the valley

[Holston_River_Rambler]

  On 2/17/2021 at 12:55 AM, Blue Moon said:

Curious if that has shifted SE to account for the dry air on the northwestern edge of this one.

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Honestly not sure, but that could be something that is happening. 

[John1122]

HRRR similar through 30 vs 18z. More snow in SW Tennessee and less around Chattanooga is the biggest difference so far. 

[John1122]

Warmer along 40 and it switched to rain earlier 40 and south vs 18z. 

Probably gonna cut snow totals in the Knox area this run vs 18z. 

[McMinnWx]

Sharp margins along McMinn County now. 

[John1122]

The HRRR is mostly just booking it with everything. It clears out all precip quickly in the east. Still puts down 2-4 inches over much of the area. 

[John1122]

The second wave does well for west areas but looks weaker as it heads east. Probably token flakes on the back side. 

[John1122]

HRRR ended up here. 

[John1122]

NAM is colder through 30. 

[PowellVolz]

  On 2/17/2021 at 2:02 AM, John1122 said:

HRRR ended up here. 

Does it warm the valley up more than 18z?


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[John1122]

  On 2/17/2021 at 2:11 AM, PowellVolz said:

Does it warm the valley up more than 18z?


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Yes. Or faster at least. 

[John1122]

NAM was a tick south and a tick colder vs 18z. It's been trending colder and more south with frozen in the Eastern areas all day. Still the most aggressive with the warm nose. 

[PowellVolz]

  On 2/17/2021 at 2:14 AM, John1122 said:

Yes. Or faster at least. 

Didn’t want to see a trend towards the NAM


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[John1122]

3k also working south/east a bit more with snow. 

12z 

[Stovepipe]

This has minor nuisance slop written all over it for me.  Not expecting half what some of the models are showing and it'll get washed away regardless.  The kids will get virtual again though, I'm sure.

[fountainguy97]

Nam drops wild amounts of ice across NE TN. Let’s not go down this road.

[John1122]

  On 2/17/2021 at 2:18 AM, PowellVolz said:

Didn’t want to see a trend towards the NAM


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The NAM is starting to cave towards other models. Once the HRRR gets towards 24 hours out it's been particularly good this year. Though it's still had a fail or two in that range. Hope the colder trend sticks around.  

[PowellVolz]

  On 2/17/2021 at 2:19 AM, John1122 said:

3k also working south/east a bit more with snow. 

12z 

That’s a pretty big jump to be honest. Need 2 more jumps like that to allow for it to trend back NW in the 11th hour.

 

 

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