February 17-18th Winter Storm Thread.

[John1122]

West siders are basically guaranteed to get this one at this point. It's currently trending colder valley wide. As with any winter storm here, bust potential abounds, especially eastern valley areas. All modeling currently shows ice, snow or some combination of the two from Arkansas to SWVA. 

Let's reel it in!

[John1122]

Memphis has already fired up the winter storm watches. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
848 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

...Another Winter Storm is Expected Tuesday Night through Thursday...

.Bitterly cold wind chill readings will continue through midday
Tuesday. Wind chill readings will be below zero to as low as 15
below across the Mid-South. Another winter storm is expected to
affect the Mid-South as early as Tuesday night, though the greater
chance for significant snow, sleet, and freezing rain
accumulations will be Wednesday and Thursday. Any accumulations
on top of the current snow and sleet will exacerbate travel
problems across the Mid- South.

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>003-019-020-
048-051-161200-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0003.210217T0600Z-210219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMEG.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210216T1800Z/
Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Cross-Crittenden-
St. Francis-Lee AR-Dunklin-Pemiscot-Lake-Obion-Weakley-Dyer-
Gibson-Lauderdale-Crockett-
Including the cities of Piggott, Corning, Paragould, Jonesboro,
Harrisburg, Blytheville, Wynne, West Memphis, Forrest City,
Marianna, Kennett, Caruthersville, Tiptonville, Union City,
Martin, Dresden, Dyersburg, Humboldt, Milan, Ripley TN, and Alamo
848 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind
  chill values as low as 15 below zero. For the Winter Storm
  Watch, heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a light
  glaze possible.

* WHERE...Portions of West Tennessee, East Arkansas and
  Southeast Missouri.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST Tuesday.
  For the Winter Storm Watch, from late Tuesday night through
  Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia and
  frostbite if precautions are not taken.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

[John1122]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Memphis TN
848 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

...Another Winter Storm is Expected Tuesday Night through Thursday...

.Bitterly cold wind chill readings will continue through midday
Tuesday. Wind chill readings will be below zero to as low as 15
below across the Mid-South. Another winter storm is expected to
affect the Mid-South as early as Tuesday night, though the greater
chance for significant snow, sleet, and freezing rain
accumulations will be Wednesday and Thursday. Any accumulations
on top of the current snow and sleet will exacerbate travel
problems across the Mid- South.

ARZ058-MSZ001>005-007-008-010>013-020-021-TNZ004-021-022-049-050-
052>055-088>092-161200-
/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.A.0003.210217T0600Z-210219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMEG.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210216T1800Z/
Phillips-DeSoto-Marshall-Benton MS-Tippah-Alcorn-Tunica-Tate-
Coahoma-Quitman-Panola-Lafayette-Tallahatchie-Yalobusha-Henry-
Carroll-Benton TN-Tipton-Haywood-Madison-Chester-Henderson-
Decatur-Shelby-Fayette-Hardeman-McNairy-Hardin-
Including the cities of Helena, West Helena, Southaven,
Olive Branch, Holly Springs, Ashland, Ripley MS, Corinth, Tunica,
Senatobia, Clarksdale, Marks, Batesville, Oxford, Charleston,
Water Valley, Coffeeville, Paris, Huntingdon, Camden, Covington,
Brownsville, Jackson, Henderson, Lexington, Parsons,
Decaturville, Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Memphis,
Millington, Somerville, Oakland, Bolivar, Selmer, and Savannah
848 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind
  chill values as low as 10 below zero. For the Winter Storm
  Watch, heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of around
  two tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of North Mississippi, West Tennessee and East
  Arkansas.

* WHEN...For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST Tuesday.
  For the Winter Storm Watch, from late Tuesday night through
  Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute. The cold wind chills could result in hypothermia and
  frostbite if precautions are not taken.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

[Shocker0]

I'm hoping maybe this cold air coming through now is helping to move everything Eastward finally for this next storm but who knows. Just yesterday we were forecast to be around 45 both Wednesday and Thursday but now it looks like mid 30s. Sucks being right on the edge of being cold enough but maybe we get lucky.

[John1122]

I didn't look far enough out on the regular gfs earlier to see it ended here. 

[John1122]

Most years I'd love this ensemble mean 3 days out. This year 

[John1122]

Euro is coming in flatter as well. Means  northwestern areas don't get hit quite as hard. 

Normally I would be happy dancing with this Euro run at D3. This year I'm not as sold. I will say this one will have some nice cold in place. 

 

[Matthew70]

27 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Euro is coming in flatter as well. Means  northwestern areas don't get hit quite as hard. 

Normally I would be happy dancing with this Euro run at D3. This year I'm not as sold. I will say this one will have some nice cold in place. 

 

I will not buy in.  I will not buy in.  

[Kentucky]

13 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

I will not buy in.  I will not buy in.  

I'm already in, and still without power...

 

 

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Kentucky said:

I'm already in, and still without power...

 

 

Hopefully you get power soon.  It’s bad all over.  Windmills frozen.  Solar panels frozen.  

[John1122]

Getting into HRRR range.

[John1122]

HRRR through that frame, obviously still snowing pretty well at that point.

[John1122]

03z RAP is a big hitter as well. Snowing at 51 nearly state wide and just getting heavy East valley north of 40, in SEKY and SWVA by 51 with  similar sleet placement to the HRRR, with this already down.

[John1122]

Only the most brief mention of anything from MRX regarding this event in the AFD. I assume they are going with the NAM and they only mention a brief period of mixed precip before quick warming changes everything to rain Wednesday night.

Forecasts for  my area are saying 1-2 inches of sleet though.

[John1122]

The RGEM is wintry at 06z. The NAM is completely by itself with this event compared to all other overnight modeling. 

Snow/frozen on the GFS/V16/Canadian/RGEM/UKIE/RAP/HRRR.

Warmer and faster on the NAM/3K.

[John1122]

06z GFS very front end thumpy.

[John1122]

The V16 is unleashing snowmageddon at hr 48 along 40 from Crossville to Knoxville.

 

[John1122]

Yes please to the V16.

I'd cash that out and head to winter 2021-22 and not think twice.

[John1122]

06z ICON, it only shows snow and freezing rain/sleet i think shows as rain. 

[John1122]

09z RAP looking good through 41. 

[John1122]

This rapping will look like a DGEXing at the rate it's going. 

[John1122]

MegaRap. Its beginning to change to rain in the east at this point. The low is near Mobile and middle and western areas are seeing snow redevelop over their areas. 

 

[Shocker0]

2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Yes please to the V16.

I'd cash that out and head to winter 2021-22 and not think twice.

100% 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro looks very similar to 0z Euro John posted above:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

While the NAM is still looking rainy, it has trended more "thumpy" over the past 5 runs:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It'll be interesting to see if the NAM comes around more at 12z. The SREF NMB members are getting more interested now, at the 9z run, but the ARW members still don't want anything to do with it. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z Euro precip:                                                                                                                                       0z Euro precip

  

 

I'm honestly kind of afraid to try to look much more in depth with this (like 850/ 700mb lows, vorts, etc..), with how many changes still happened at go time with the last system. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Until the 12z suite comes, I shall believe yoda dog:

[Kentucky]

 

[1234snow]

MegaRap. Its beginning to change to rain in the east at this point. The low is near Mobile and middle and western areas are seeing snow redevelop over their areas. 
 

Then it appears for a lot of rain setting up after all of that snow on the RAP.