zenmsav6810 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You cant just cherry pick the snowmaps with the hottest pinks to fit an agenda. Like Wentz said, we have time...30 hours....but this didn't just tick the wrong way, we saw some large jumps at 0z so far headed the wrong direction. Less juice, less waa, coastal destroys thermals. 8 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said: We must be looking at something different. All the 0z runs so far have been colder. All still depict a general 4-8” snowfall over most of the region. In fact the 0z Nam was its coldest run yet... Just now, RedSky said: My 0z take is Ralph is go MECS or go home hehe Weenie jump in our hour of triumph? Dare, say are the words of a man sick of snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 25 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: Gonna be interesting to see how this storm ends up evolving. The NAM has a big front end thump and then a bunch of snizzle. While the GFS and RGEM just give us a nice long-duration event with lots of light to moderate snow. my feelings as well. I am having real good laughs on how panicking is setting in for some of the youngsters. This is a run of the mill overrunning snowstorm event and who ever gets dry slotted also gets the majority of the snizzle. Likely to see heavy banding set up before noon on Thursday with intermittent periods of snizzle adjacent to where downsloping is occurring near the heavier bands. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: Weenie jump in our hour of triumph? Dare, say are the words of a man sick of snow! It's called gripping the wheel a little too tightly. He'll be fine, and enjoy his 5" to 8" of snow! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said: We must be looking at something different. All the 0z runs so far have been colder. All still depict a general 4-8” snowfall over most of the region. In fact the 0z Nam was its coldest run yet... Also the nam has been pretty great of late, it sniffed out the last system being amped and west way before the other models. I'm not jumping off the ledge until it backs off or these trends continue. Any time you see such a drastic change on models like the gfs or rgem, I always wait another cycle before getting concerned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Albedoman said: my feelings as well. I am having real good laughs on how panicking is setting in for some of the youngsters. This is a run of the mill overrunning snowstorm event and who ever gets dry slotted also gets the majority of the snizzle. Likely to see heavy banding set up before noon on Thursday with intermittent periods of snizzle adjacent to where downsloping is occurring near the heavier bands. Hand raised- did it one better had snizzle under the death band. Made out ok by the end.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Kinda feels like the models are focusing more on the coastal Friday afternoon/night into Saturday morning. Less front end an more focus on coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Albedoman said: my feelings as well. I am having real good laughs on how panicking is setting in for some of the youngsters. This is a run of the mill overrunning snowstorm event and who ever gets dry slotted also gets the majority of the snizzle. Likely to see heavy banding set up before noon on Thursday with intermittent periods of snizzle adjacent to where downsloping is occurring near the heavier bands. In my limited experience as a youngster I whole heartedly concur. The NAM tends to score well with these over running events! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 UKMET and RAP are identical 9-10" for everybody 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, RedSky said: UKMET and RAP are identical 9-10" for everybody Has the waa thump still too. 4-6" in 6 hours from 12z to 18z... Noice! Hopefully the euro is similar and we can ride the old EE rule. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: My 0z take is Ralph is go MECS or go home hehe I think both Ralph and Wentz (& others) are suffering from MBO (model burnout) which is highly contagious folks... Keep your distance and “LET IT PLAY OUT”‼️ 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: I think both Ralph and Wentz (& others) are suffering from MBO (model burnout) which is highly contagious folks... Keep your distance and “LET IT PLAY OUT‼️“ We’ve even had the models change around 24 hours from storm time. So yes let’s let things play out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 47 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: In my limited experience as a youngster I whole heartedly concur. The NAM tends to score well with these over running events! Back in the day, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, snowwors2 said: I think both Ralph and Wentz (& others) are suffering from MBO (model burnout) which is highly contagious folks... Keep your distance and “LET IT PLAY OUT”‼️ More like PTBS... Post Traumatic Bust Syndrome. It's a real condition where one assumes the worst based on past model busts in the same timeframe. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Still snowing Saturday AM on the NAVGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Still snowing Saturday AM on the NAVGEM Where do you get temps or ptypes for the NAVGEM? Not on TT that I've been able to find. P.S. We love you Ralph! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Where do you get temps or ptypes for the NAVGEM? Not on TT that I've been able to find. P.S. We love you Ralph! https://www.woweather.com/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=us&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD= Use thicknesses and 850s. Old school ptype deterministic approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Euro⁉️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Likely not enthused with the 0z ECM Ralph? It's like the others less thump and more drawn out. But still 6-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: Likely not enthused with the 0z ECM Ralph? It's like the others less thump and more drawn out. But still 6-9" My bar is 8-12" with this one so I'm not feeling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Always like those combination of numbers for some unknown reason! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: https://www.woweather.com/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=us&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD= Use thicknesses and 850s. Old school ptype deterministic approach. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 I agree with Ralph we don't want a strung out system. If you fail on the thump and a warm layer sneaks in with sleet like GD1 we end up with 3-5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Still snowing 7am Saturday on the CRAS. Qpf and old school p type approach close to 12" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: I agree with Ralph we don't want a strung out system. If you fail on the thump and a warm layer sneaks in with sleet like GD1 we end up with 3-5" Hug the CRAS then lol. 8" from the thump and then mix ending as snow with ~4" additional Friday into Sat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 @Newman either doesn't like this threat or something happened. Odd not to see more input from him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Three days of snow AGAIN that's unpossible 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Its funny...laugh all u want but if this ends up a longer duration into Friday night after the thump Thurs, the CRAS will have scored a huge coup sniffing that signal out over 30 hrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: @Newman either doesn't like this threat or something happened. Odd not to see more input from him. Looks like he dropped out posting 17 hours ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: @Newman either doesn't like this threat or something happened. Odd not to see more input from him. Hot date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 hour ago, RedSky said: Hot date Or dumped and went bridge jumping with Animal... 25F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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