yankeex777 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 11 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Eps is a bit further north than the op. You can tell it brings the mix line just south of 95. This is about the last run the ensembles are useful, so let's hope thats as far north as we get. When you guys refer to 95, which 95 is it? I'm in nj and there's the turnpike which is commonly referred to as 95. The 95 in Pennsylvania turns into 295 once it enters NJ. I've always been curious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, yankeex777 said: When you guys refer to 95, which 95 is it? I'm in nj and there's the turnpike which is commonly referred to as 95. The 95 in Pennsylvania turns into 295 once it enters NJ. I've always been curious. Same corridor imo but it's 95 in pa and NJ turnpike. Also, it doesn't turn into 295 anymore since they built the extension in bristol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 “WINTER STORM WATCH” just hoisted‼️‼️ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, snowwors2 said: “WINTER STORM WATCH” just hoisted‼️‼️ Yep... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Winter Storm Watch for Lower Bucks County Issued by National Weather Service Philadelphia, PA 3:14 PM EST Tue, Feb 16, 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will begin as snow Thursday morning, with the heaviest snowfall expected Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. Sleet and/or freezing rain will then mix in Thursday evening into Thursday night. Light wintry precipitation may continue into the daytime hours on Friday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 18z NAM with a huge front end thump for the Philly burbs into the Poconos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 9 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 18z NAM with a huge front end thump for the Philly burbs into the Poconos. Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Beautiful U think it comes north like all other storms? Or that confluence stronger this storm an gonna go further south? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 17 hours ago, Albedoman said: I had thought this exact same scenario playing out and stated in my blog a four hours ago after the 18Z NAM run. Tonight's 0Z NAM runs looks like it is confirming my thoughts. Typical overrunning situation. Winter storm watches should be hiked by tomorrow evening for our area if the NAM model stays consistent in tomorrows day runs LMAO if the runs remain consistent though. Its a keeper in my book after the crap we have tonight. on cue. I think the total amount is more in tune with 8-12 right now as the models become more consistent and I also believe mixing will be not be as prevalent from the LV north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 32 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: 18z NAM with a huge front end thump for the Philly burbs into the Poconos. Was there some freezing rain in there? Snow map only has a few inches for Philly but 6-8 in central and northern Montco. A foot for Berks County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3k is 3 hrs minimum of 1-3"/hr thump snows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 24 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Was there some freezing rain in there? Snow map only has a few inches for Philly but 6-8 in central and northern Montco. A foot for Berks County. If you're looking at the snow depth map it's probably due to sleet. This for the 18z 12k NAM. Snow map verbatim looks pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, yankeex777 said: When you guys refer to 95, which 95 is it? I'm in nj and there's the turnpike which is commonly referred to as 95. The 95 in Pennsylvania turns into 295 once it enters NJ. I've always been curious. 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Same corridor imo but it's 95 in pa and NJ turnpike. Also, it doesn't turn into 295 anymore since they built the extension in bristol. I understand the logic of changing I-95 to I-295 ,but I can't stand it and will always call it '95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 14 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said: I understand the logic of changing I-95 to I-295 ,but I can't stand it and will always call it '95. Before they realigned everything, 295 north would suddenly just turn into 95S right around when you cross over into pa over the Scuddersfalls bridge. It makes sense when you look at it on a map cause it's just one big circle, but still confusing. I think they changed that when they changed the exit numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Damn, I've have been paying minimum attention due to outside issues but when did this turn into a long duration system? Early Thurs to Fri late morning/early afternoon??? Again, Damn... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 13 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Damn, I've haven't been paying minimum attention due to outside issues but when did this turn into a long duration system? Early Thurs to Fri late morning/early afternoon??? Again, Damn... Last 24 hours has kind of trended that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I'm surprised no one posted that we got NAMD at 18z....whoa mama! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: I'm surprised no one posted that we got NAMD at 18z....whoa mama! Gfs quite similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 28 minutes ago, yankeex777 said: Before they realigned everything, 295 north would suddenly just turn into 95S right around when you cross over into pa over the Scuddersfalls bridge. It makes sense when you look at it on a map cause it's just one big circle, but still confusing. I think they changed that when they changed the exit numbers. Ha ha, coming from New Jersey yeah. I'm traveling north into NJ and still would call it I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I still think main show for city is the initial thump. We probably lose some lift and mid level temps after. There are significant differences at this range on the models for what happens after the thump. It’s going to be the wildcard for turnpike N. The NAMs snow map looks similar to other models for the most part, but it gets there in a slightly different way. in the grand scheme of things this storm looks better for the city than maybe any other event did at this range. I’m talking about consistency throughout each model. Last event the NAM never really came on board for Philly until real late etc etc. as for me, I’m going to setup shop somewhere NW of the city. Idk if I’ll be more west or north yet. I could stay home but with the timing I’ll be able to come home Friday. Isn’t like I’m diving 4 hours away or anything. right now for philly im still liking 4-7” with some sleet, but if we see a few more ticks colder at mid levels I’ll go 6-10” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 DT has a map out.... first one of his this season that I think will verify. He Thinks the ice storm risk is significant. Makes sense the last interior ice storm hit almost this time of year was that 13-14? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 20 hours ago, Albedoman said: I had thought this exact same scenario playing out and stated in my blog a four hours ago after the 18Z NAM run. Tonight's 0Z NAM runs looks like it is confirming my thoughts. Typical overrunning situation. Winter storm watches should be hiked by tomorrow evening for our area if the NAM model stays consistent in tomorrows day runs LMAO if the runs remain consistent though. Its a keeper in my book after the crap we have tonight. ednesday Night MT Holly pinpoint for Macungie is agreeable and makes sense to me with thinking 8-11 inches Wed night--A chance of snow after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 20. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Thursday Thurs--Snow. High near 29. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Thursday Night Thurs night-- Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 1am. Low around 27. Northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Latest 18z EURO more NAMish, WAA extends from the "finger" like feautre extending from the south. Thump rides that boundary as well as the sleet changeover line. Heavier snow focused just NW of city, as we should expect. Still a fun storm verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: DT has a map out.... first one of his this season that I think will verify. He Thinks the ice storm risk is significant. Makes sense the last interior ice storm hit almost this time of year was that 13-14? Is this the map? Looks like more of a Virginia feature, which they don't really need since they are still recovering from ice this past weekend: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 ^Looks like that was released 1045 this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: ^Looks like that was released 1045 this morning? Yeah, looks that way. Don't know if there's a second guess map yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, KamuSnow said: Yeah, looks that way. Don't know if there's a second guess map yet. I don't know his routine...it's confusing. So many guess maps then a final call. Since that one is 10+hrs old...it's probably dated. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I don't know his routine...it's confusing. So many guess maps then a final call. Since that one is 10+hrs old...it's probably dated. zenmsav6810 could clarify but he's holding his cards close to his vest.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, KamuSnow said: zenmsav6810 could clarify but he's holding his cards close to his vest.... Quite honestly his dated map seems to be pretty correct as far as I'm concerned and I would hold. 3-6" in/around Philly then 6 -8" (or so) once you hit the burbs... 31F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 0Z NAM further south and colder 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now