ChescoWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 This is the N and W winter of old.....we have a solid shot at eclipsing 40" of snow this season after Thursday....and an increasing shot of a top 10 all-time February snow month....who would have thunk it?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Rgem.... depicts several waves of snow. Still snowing lightly Friday afternoon. Much colder run. Philly never breaks 29 degrees ... aloft warms for a bit and sleet is introduced to southern sections but this model continues to trend colder so the sleet line may continue to be pushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Gfs is a beautiful snowstorm for everyone I95 and northwest. South jersey flips to sleet for a period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Rgem has 3 lows Long duration event 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I'm new to models -- is 10:1 snow ratio always used in our area? Can't see it used in say North Dakota in the middle of winter. And why is Accuweather saying only 3-6" for LV? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, LVwxHistorian said: I'm new to models -- is 10:1 snow ratio always used in our area? Can't see it used in say North Dakota in the middle of winter. It's a good default/average. Lower with wet snow obviously, higher with colder temps and good snowgrowth conditions higher up. Wind will knock down the high ratios due to fracturing of dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, LVwxHistorian said: I'm new to models -- is 10:1 snow ratio always used in our area? Can't see it used in say North Dakota in the middle of winter. Yeah 9 times out of 10 we see 10:1 ratios around here. It's too early to know if we:ll see anything higher than those ratios but 10:1 is always a good benchmark for these kind of storms in these parts. Also important to note that any sleet being factored into those maps is more like 3:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I'm with ralph, every storm this year has ticked north as we got closer. I have a feeling that 95 and immediate burbs see much more sleet than currently progged . These warm layers are notoriously tough to get correct and many times they end up further north than modeled. Trust me I want a 6-8" storm to finish out the year, but I just have a feeling this one will end up 2-4" of cement for 95 And the burbs. If I was a betting man, I'd bet on the lehigh valley taking the brunt of this one. We'll see though, I'm going to miss the tracking, this month has been a blast in that regard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 There's also a shot at less than 10:1 too especially near the city at times if we see sneaky warm layers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 what's the Euro saying? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, LVwxHistorian said: what's the Euro saying? Gotta wait another hour for the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 hour ago, LVwxHistorian said: what's the Euro saying? Since you're new I'll give you the time frames that the 12z models generally begin rolling out. 845 am - NAM 930 am - ICON 10 am - RGEM 1030 am - GFS/Para GFS 11 am - CMC 12 pm - UKMET 1 pm - Euro 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 12z Ukie gives us breathing room as it focuses WAA thump south. Fine by me at this range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Since you're new I'll give you the time frames that the 12z models generally begin rolling out. 845 am - NAM 930 am - ICON 10 am - RGEM 1030 am - GFS/Para GFS 11 am - CMC 12 am - UKMET 1 pm - Euro How dare you leave out the JMA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 ECM is colder and huge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Meh though virtually nothing from the developing coastal in the end but a colder thump for peeps S&E 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Euro is a nice hit, definitely further south with the heaviest banding on the WAA snows than other guidance which is where we want it right now. The event is all snow for everyone except s jersey which gets some mixing towards but also gets the most qpf. Exactly where we want to be right now. I'm cautiously optimistic for a solid winter storm warning event region wide. Euro is similar to the rgem in its duration. Would be close to a 24 hour storm if they are correct. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Finally a storm that targets late morning and afternoon for the best rates and no sneaky lulls? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 First call: 4-8" along and west of the NJ turnpike with 10" lollis N and W of 95. Won't be surprised if someone hits a foot in that area if these long duration solutions verify but will have to see as we get closer. For now I think double digit totals will be the max. 2-4" south and east of the turnpike with heavy mixing of sleet. Should still remain all frozen though and many places on the shore should see their biggest event of the season. Cautiously optimistic for a region wide winter storm warning event. Should hopefully see plenty of pink on the mt holly page tomorrow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: First call: 4-8" along and west of the NJ turnpike with 10" lollis N and W of 95. Won't be surprised if someone hits a foot in that area if these long duration solutions verify but will have to see as we get closer. For now I think double digit totals will be the max. 2-4" south and east of the turnpike with heavy mixing of sleet. Should still remain all frozen though and many places on the shore should see their biggest event of the season. Cautiously optimistic for a region wide winter storm warning event. Should hopefully see plenty of pink on the mt holly page tomorrow. I am glad it is trending towards more snow and less ice. You also never know if this will be the last major threat for the winter, so I would enjoy it. How much more north do you think it could come? Would that introduce more mixing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 If that Euro verifies as is (gulp) this could be my highest accumulation this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 4 minutes ago, mattinpa said: I am glad it is trending towards more snow and less ice. You also never know if this will be the last major threat for the winter, so I would enjoy it.How much more north do you think it could come? Would that introduce more mixing? Seasonal trend has seen the mix line come further 50-75 miles north but this storm has been a bit different as confluence to our north has been modeled stronger as we've gotten closer which hasn't typically been the case. We will have to monitor tomorrow if the seasonal trend of ticking north comes to fruition. If it does, I expect the mix line to hit the Philly area and immediate burbs in lower bucks/montco/mercer. It is almost certainly going to be all frozen though at this point which is great news. If we see that north tick, and I put it at a big if at this point, I would probably lower totals around 95 to 3-6" but I still think this will meet winter storm warning criteria for 95% of the region even if we see more mixing than currently progged. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Latest WXSIM with 12z NAM and 6 Z GFS has sleetfest 2021 on tap on Thursday - actual output shows about 3" of IP from my estimation Thursday: Dense overcast. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the morning, then sleet likely in the afternoon. High 30. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 24. Wind northeast around 4 mph in the morning, becoming east around 8 mph, gusting to 15 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. Thursday night: Dense overcast. Sleet likely in the evening, then a mix of freezing rain and sleet likely after midnight. Low 29, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 20 to 25. Wind east around 9 mph, gusting to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.2 inches. Friday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. A chance of a mix of freezing rain, sleet, rain, and snow in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 35. Wind chill around 27. Wind north-northwest around 7 mph, gusting to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Little if any freezing rain accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Wow -that WX run is crazy. It's what I would expect, but seems this one is trending south/east not north/west. Artic high in a different spot and hanging on? Guess we'll know this time tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: How dare you leave out the JMA And the CRAS geez 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Speaking of the CRAS it is a slightly longer duration version of the RGEM...snow showers still falling early Saturday AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 When will the inevitable north trend begin? Tonight or tommor afternoon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: When will the inevitable north trend begin? Tonight or tommor afternoon? 0z tonight latest. It has been about 30-36 hrs out all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Eps is a bit further north than the op. You can tell it brings the mix line just south of 95. This is about the last run the ensembles are useful, so let's hope thats as far north as we get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Probabilities looking very nice..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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