hazwoper Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 0Z NAM is warmer at first, but then crashes temps as rates increase. All snow at PHL through 1pm (changeover for a bit just over the river) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 30 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Look forward to comeback to this tomorrow lol if rates let up early, sure, but I don’t know. Plus, everyone seems to be missing the point that I was speaking about an actual model output. Jeez Remember...im talking city proper, not us per se 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, hazwoper said: 0Z NAM is warmer at first, but then crashes temps as rates increase. All snow at PHL through 1pm (changeover for a bit just over the river) City is close to trouble this run. Going the wrong way at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: City is close to trouble this run. Going the wrong way at this range. NAM is racing the sleet line .. it’s the only model depicting it moving like this. But it’s now within range to be taken seriously ... living in the edge. Philly gets into some heavy precip could really boom or bust here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Going with 3-6 imby. Seen higher totals out there, don't like em at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, Snowcane21 said: NAM is racing the sleet line .. it’s the only model depicting it moving like this. But it’s now within range to be taken seriously ... living in the edge. Philly gets into some heavy precip could really boom or bust here. Perhaps living on the edge, but Philly ends up better in the end. It’s a good run all things considered 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, hazwoper said: Perhaps living on the edge, but Philly ends up better in the end. It’s a good run all things considered Compared to 18z it’s much less snow for philly due to sleet much earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Snowcane21 said: Compared to 18z it’s much less snow for philly due to sleet much earlier Huh???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Huh???? 0z/18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Snowcane21 said: 0z/18z It’s more due to less qpf. Shift south in qpf overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: It’s more due to less qpf. Shift south in qpf overall No, Kphl has much more sleet on the 0z run. Qpf essentially unchanged. Qpf field shrunk up north yes. But the snow reduction for the city is due to earlier sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said: NAM is racing the sleet line .. it’s the only model depicting it moving like this. But it’s now within range to be taken seriously ... living in the edge. Philly gets into some heavy precip could really boom or bust here. The NAM usually nails the warm tongue and rush to mixing/sleet almost every time and just like this it is often lacking strong support yet verifies while most state it is an outlier. The NAM is credible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The NAM usually nails the warm tongue and rush to mixing/sleet almost every time and just like this it is often lacking strong support yet verifies while most state it is an outlier. The NAM is credible. Remember December the warm levels were under forecast severely. Sounds like trouble for the MA crew on latest observations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: Remember December the warm levels were under forecast severely. Sounds like trouble for the MA crew on latest observations. Yep. I do see the 3k came in slightly warmer and sleetier in the city itself but colder just to the NW with the sleet line not making it as far N and W past few runs. That's a good sign for NW folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 HRRR continues to keep PHL snow through 1PM. It usually is late at detecting the warm layer aloft so let’s see what it does as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Is it me or is the actual precip running 4-5 hours ahead of the NAM 0Z? Looking at Nexrad it appears that precip has already spread across central PA (most likely virga I'm guessing) whereas the NAM shows the precip just crossing into western PA around 11PM... Maybe I'm just looking at it wrong though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 18, 2021 Author Share Posted February 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said: Is it me or is the actual precip running 4-5 hours ahead of the NAM 0Z? Looking at Nexrad it appears that precip has already spread across central PA (most likely virga I'm guessing) whereas the NAM shows the precip just crossing into western PA around 11PM... Maybe I'm just looking at it wrong though. It’s snowing in Hazleton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Made it to the pa cabin. Virga ville. Nothing yet despite radar. 18f no wind. Perfect for a cigar walk minus the flakes falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Media Delaware County Partly Cloudy where it is clear its crystal clear! 25 dew point 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, hazwoper said: It’s snowing in Hazleton Just saw in Central Pa forum someone reporting snow as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Man looking at the national radar, that moisture flow out of the gulf is serious... We may have an overperformer if thermals hold imo really like the look though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPotter_WX Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 A very meh event for the LV. The QPF doesn’t seem to be there. I’ve been pretty conservative in my thinking for this area. I was thinking 4-8” this afternoon but after looking at the latest, 3-6” is probably better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Finding it difficult to sleep tonight, I guess it's the pre-storm jitters anyway down to 20 degrees in my backyard. Starting to cloud up now from what I could tell when I stepped outside for a smoke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Finding it difficult to sleep tonight, I guess it's the pre-storm jitters anyway down to 20 degrees in my backyard. Starting to cloud up now from what I could tell when I stepped outside for a smoke. Hi Iceman - getting nowcast time, but how was the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 Appears all systems going as planned: Temp: Hanging between 23-24F DP: 12F (so temps will drop w/steady/heavy precip) Radar filling in and some good echoes moving up...thinking 4-5am we'll see some flakes depending on virga. See what NWS thinks/update is posted within an hour or so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Appears all systems going as planned: Temp: Hanging between 23-24F DP: 12F (so temps will drop w/steady/heavy precip) Radar filling in and some good echoes moving up...thinking 4-5am we'll see some flakes depending on virga. See what NWS thinks/update is posted within an hour or so... Hrrr is warm with much sleet. Looks like we manage a couple inches before the flip verbatim. Dont like seeing the mesos reducing snow and increasing sleet but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hrrr is warm with much sleet. Looks like we manage a couple inches before the flip verbatim. Dont like seeing the mesos reducing snow and increasing sleet but it is what it is. My expectations were/are snow 4+" then sleet and such which is fine. But a quick flip would piss me off... 25F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 6z NAM says hold my beer and ramps up the costal 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2021 Share Posted February 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: My expectations were/are snow 4+" then sleet and such which is fine. But a quick flip would piss me off... 25F Oddly the mesos show sleet under the heaviest banding. Opposite of what we are used to and a red flag imho. I have us at 3-4" also before the flip. Not buying the long duration impact. After the thump and flip looks showery and I doubt much more accumulates with those lighter rates during the daytime. My heart sides with @The Iceman looking at the gulf of Mexico feed and hoping for an overperformer. But my gut and experience says this is going to disappoint many who are expecting 6"+ which will probably be localized to the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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