Moderately Unstable Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, Oliviajames said: What are you thoughts for Berks? Well, of course surface temps are going to be a bit colder. But the thing is, with the track of this system and the LLJ orientation, the sleet line will probably move SW to NE, not S to N. So at least from a timing standpoint...you're not going to stay snow much longer than Philly. A bigger delineator of time would be drawing lines W-E, or ideally NE to SW as I said above. However, I think FZRA is less of an issue for you...so you'll see sleet longer, and may actually get through the entire event without any change to FZRA. From a totals standpoint, since most of the accumulations being progged are based on the front end, I think you might be a touch higher than Philly...so instead of 4-7 I'd say perhaps 5-8 for you guys particularly given the lack of fzra. Ok that's the end of my point-forecasting for now, I have to go back to work hahahaha. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: Well, of course surface temps are going to be a bit colder. But the thing is, with the track of this system and the LLJ orientation, the sleet line will probably move SW to NE, not S to N. So at least from a timing standpoint...you're not going to stay snow much longer than Philly. A bigger delineator of time would be drawing lines W-E, or ideally NE to SW as I said above. However, I think FZRA is less of an issue for you...so you'll see sleet longer, and may actually get through the entire event without any change to FZRA. From a totals standpoint, since most of the accumulations being progged are based on the front end, I think you might be a touch higher than Philly...so instead of 4-7 I'd say perhaps 5-8 for you guys particularly given the lack of fzra. Ok that's the end of my point-forecasting for now, I have to go back to work hahahaha. Hey thanks man, much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Both NAMs improvements for the city. After that latest EURO run we may end up lucking out here. Has the main thump directed right at us. Yeah we changeover to sleet at the tail end, but the damage is done, 3-6" isolated 7 spots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 hours ago, BBasile said: Yeah, that looks mostly like Mt Holly and State College weren't talking to each other. Everything else looks pretty good. For the record we did talk last night. There was only 1-2 inches of snow difference between us. Once totals pass 8.0 the next range is plotted, which in this case is 8-12 inches. I did not want that displayed yet as people would gravitate to the 12 inches. We were well collaborated with our other offices. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 NAM looking good. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 TT clown map... This is all pre changeover 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: TT clown map... This is all pre changeover That map includes Ice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: TT clown map... This is all pre changeover Here’s your Sleet according to the NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said: That map includes Ice No it doesn't. From PHL on north it only turns to sleet from 18Z onward. The map he posted was total snow as of 18Z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, hazwoper said: No it doesn't. From PHL on north it only turns to sleet from 18Z onward. The map he posted was total snow as of 18Z Yes it does. It says it right in the map. *includes Sleet*. Come on guys. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said: Yes it does. It says it right in the map. *includes Sleet*. Come on guys. Right there is sleet on the map, south of the mason dixon line, but not in phl, not at 18z But to be fair, im not a huge fan of their maps, especially when its not all snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, yankeex777 said: Right there is sleet on the map, south of the mason dixon line, but not in phl, not at 18z But to be fair, im not a huge fan of their maps, especially when its not all snow Agreed. This is The snow map off the NAM. NO sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said: Yes it does. It says it right in the map. *includes Sleet*. Come on guys. It always says that...come on guy. Also, as I stated, there is no sleet from PHL north up to 18Z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Snowcane21 said: Agreed. This is The snow map off the NAM. NO sleet Bless you sir, much better. Also, will take that all day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 Winter Storm Warning posted 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 A little dry for far northern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Everybody thrown in the same pot with the new NWS warning interesting scenario 4-6" Expectations set at 5" snow and sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: Everybody thrown in the same pot with the new NWS warning interesting scenario 4-6" Expectations set at 5" snow and sleet So shoveling the folks driveway should be nice and light? Outstanding! Watching Glenn...appears he's heading more sleeti-ish. 29F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Glenn's totals, snow/sleet as of 5:20pm and he mentioned "sun angle" for the weenies who don't believe it.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Mount Holly's writeup also mentioned the sun angle, so it isn't just Glenn. Here's the website I use (both for meteo and other pursuits) plotting solar azimuth for basically any location on earth on any given day (but here linked to Philly): https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/philadelphia. We're up to 38.7 degrees tomorrow at 12:14pm, vs Decem when our angle maxes in the upper 26 degree range. We're heading into the part of the year where the sun angle, day length delta (etc) are all rising rapidly day-to-day. I don't think it matters much for "the thump" but it matters later in the day--so it isn't just cya messaging. They're not wrong. Fun fact: 50 degrees of azimuth is about what you need for UV-B light to reach the surface, and thus, for your skin to produce vitamin D. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Don't mean to state the obvious: But what a booooorring storm!!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Just now, Moderately Unstable said: Mount Holly's writeup also mentioned the sun angle, so it isn't just Glenn. Here's the website I use (both for meteo and other pursuits) plotting solar azimuth for basically any location on earth on any given day (but here linked to Philly): https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/usa/philadelphia. We're up to 38.7 degrees tomorrow at 12:14pm, vs Decem when our angle maxes in the upper 26 degree range. We're heading into the part of the year where the sun angle, day length delta (etc) are all rising rapidly day-to-day. I don't think it matters much for "the thump" but it matters later in the day--so it isn't just cya messaging. They're not wrong. Fun fact: 50 degrees of azimuth is about what you need for UV-B light to reach the surface, and thus, for your skin to produce vitamin D. Not at all, I agree. It's just some forum members don't think it exist. It really does. Just going outside today w/the sun glaring, it's quite noticeable. Glenn's last update saying "the snow will accumulate well early on"....meaning sun angle will kick in. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpjones595 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Why do I feel like delco will be in the sleeting screw hole again? This winter has been brutal... the trends this year have really sucked for us down here while NW gets the highest totals. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said: Don't mean to state the obvious: But what a booooorring storm!!!! Wouldn't go that far....probably couple/several hours of fun. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Good luck fellers 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 hours ago, hazwoper said: It always says that...come on guy. Also, as I stated, there is no sleet from PHL north up to 18Z I will take the under on that....sleet will be well into PHL by 1pm in my humble estimation..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 17 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Not at all, I agree. It's just some forum members don't think it exist. It really does. Just going outside today w/the sun glaring, it's quite noticeable. Glenn's last update saying "the snow will accumulate well early on"....meaning sun angle will kick in. It exists but for the most part way overblown....for light snow for sure it is an issue for moderate to heavy....it will accumulate - heck S+ will accumulate at 34 degrees at 2pm.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 The whole sun angle thing is for real, however some including myself have been burned by this before. Regarding this storm, through about 2 PM Thursday looks like when roads will be the worst but yeah once the snow intensity lessens roads should improve during peak daylight. Of course sleet does not melt as quick on roads so that is a different story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, ChescoWx said: It exists but for the most part way overblown....for light snow for sure it is an issue for moderate to heavy....it will accumulate - heck S+ will accumulate at 34 degrees at 2pm.... Not at all. Sure, put it in your weenie book then melts 15 mins later is not real snow. If it gives you a sense of stat accomplishment, carry on.... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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