Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 3:41am update 23F Long duration for sure... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Accu Weather at 5:48am...pretty much as I would call it at this point. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Over the past 18 hours we have seen the trend across guidance for less thump/overall snow with less extreme f gen banding, less of a 700mb jet, and a faster transition from snow to sleet/slop from S to N hence the lower snow depth maps. In my experience when we see these changes leading up to game time that means mixing will be the primary p type from around 202 (maybe a bit farther N and W) on South and East. Expecting snow to break out here in lower central Bucks by 7am Thursday. Moderate for a few hours maybe even a burst on SN+ right before the switch over to sleet by around lunchtime. Should be 2-5" on the ground by that point then sleet and fzra continue thru the afternoon before dry slotting in the evening with more showers type mixed precip ending shortly after midnight on Thursday. Total snow/sleet by finish here 4-7". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Over the past 18 hours we have seen the trend across guidance for less thump/overall snow with less extreme f gen banding, less of a 700mb jet, and a faster transition from snow to sleet/slop from S to N hence the lower snow depth maps. In my experience when we see these changes leading up to game time that means mixing will be the primary p type from around 202 (maybe a bit farther N and W) on South and East. Expecting snow to break out here in lower central Bucks by 7am Thursday. Moderate for a few hours maybe even a burst on SN+ right before the switch over to sleet by around lunchtime. Should be 2-5" on the ground by that point then sleet and fzra continue thru the afternoon before dry slotting in the evening with more showers type mixed precip ending shortly after midnight on Thursday. Total snow/sleet by finish here 4-7". Not bad when it looked like a rain storm a few days ago 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: @Newman either doesn't like this threat or something happened. Odd not to see more input from him. School, classes, life is busy haha. Plus I had a date last night. So unfortunately no model checking during that time. Plus my crazy ex gf won't leave me alone, thinking about a restraining order.... anyway, I think a general 4-8" followed by a lull and then some sleet or ice is the forecast. Possibly lollis to 10 somewhere. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 40 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said: Not bad when it looked like a rain storm a few days ago Remember when past Monday was forecast to be highs around 10 and tomorrow was supposed to be around 60? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 So like clockwork the HRRR 12z comes in and is basically all snow all of PA entire event. Challenging forecast is this. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 this why snow maps estimate are not reliable. This map below varies by each NOAA regional office as clearly depicted. Snowfall accumulations do not stop at county lines or regional office boundaries. When the media sees this, they run with it and confuse the public even more. People are tired of hyped snow maps. They just want the best prediction possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So like clockwork the HRRR 12z comes in and is basically all snow all of PA entire event. Challenging forecast is this. Out of range, anyone know what the HREF shows? NAM continues to show pesky warm layers I believe. High bust potential as with every damn event. I'll be happy if we can muster up 4" in NE Philly before any sleet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, Albedoman said: this why snow maps estimate are not reliable. This map below varies by each NOAA regional office as clearly depicted. Snowfall accumulations do not stop at county lines or regional office boundaries. When the media sees this, they run with it and confuse the public even more. People are tired of hyped snow maps. They just want the best prediction possible. Yeah, that looks mostly like Mt Holly and State College weren't talking to each other. Everything else looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 22 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Out of range, anyone know what the HREF shows? NAM continues to show pesky warm layers I believe. High bust potential as with every damn event. I'll be happy if we can muster up 4" in NE Philly before any sleet. NAM warmer ll . Quicker flip than progged is still my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Nam is an outlier among the models right now being too warm and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is an outlier among the models right now being too warm and north. Para gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 NAM usually nails those sneaky warm levels, dont discount it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 12Z RGEM has only a 3 hour period of sleet tomorrow late afternoon then flips back to snow (this is for SEPA) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 17, 2021 Author Share Posted February 17, 2021 GFS look anemic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: GFS look anemic Thought it looked about the same as last night. Overrunning then the coastal is weak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Para looks good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 21 hours ago, The Iceman said: First call: 4-8" along and west of the NJ turnpike with 10" lollis N and W of 95. Won't be surprised if someone hits a foot in that area if these long duration solutions verify but will have to see as we get closer. For now I think double digit totals will be the max. 2-4" south and east of the turnpike with heavy mixing of sleet. Should still remain all frozen though and many places on the shore should see their biggest event of the season. Cautiously optimistic for a region wide winter storm warning event. Should hopefully see plenty of pink on the mt holly page tomorrow. Final call: 4-6" of snow and sleet along and west of 95 corridor up through 195. 8" lollipops somewhere in this area probably N and W where they don't flip. 2-4" snow/sleet/ possibly ending as light rain s and e of 95 and 195. edit: guidance is also hinting freezing rain may be an issue too. Gfs drops a stripe of .25" -.4" in spots just south and east of 95. Should be a solid winter storm warning event still, 4th of the year, not too shabby. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Final call: 4-6" of snow and sleet along and west of 95 corridor up through 195. 8" lollipops somewhere in this area probably N and W where they don't flip. 2-4" snow/sleet/ possibly ending as light rain s and e of 95 and 195. Should be a solid winter storm warning event still, 4th of the year, not too shabby. I agree with this for the most part. I would say maybe 4-7 (less east, more west) from say rt130 west to just over the Delaware into PA. And that should cover most of mercer, some of Middlesex and north west burl county. If there's more sleet 4 inches will verify, less sleet than you could see that upper end amount and I agree with the lollys north and west especially if the sleet holds back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Glenn at 11:00am newscast....looks solid to me. 28F 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Glenn at 11:00am newscast....looks solid to me. 28F Looks good to me. A little higher than I'm expecting but Glen has wrote the book on Philly area snowstorms...literally I 'll defer to him. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Looks good to me. A little higher than I'm expecting but Glen has wrote the book on Philly area snowstorms...literally I 'll defer to him. I'm always worried about a warm layer sneaking in too early and before you know the pinging begins... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Yeah that call is pretty darn aggressive for I-95 and south especially...seems like he is all-in on the thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I'm always worried about a warm layer sneaking in too early and before you know the pinging begins... I'm not too concerned about turning over too quickly, we have a really good airmass in place. I think we will thump hard from 12z to 18z and most places will see their 3-6" the before the pinging begins. I don't see this being a storm where we flip to sleet after only an inch or two but I've been wrong many times in the past 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 8 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: Yeah that call is pretty darn aggressive for I-95 and south especially...seems like he is all-in on the thump. He said there will be a 5-6 hr period where it will fall heavy...a.k.a "thump". 28F 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 Wxsim continues the sleet fest - looks like about 3" of sleet/snow on the detailed data Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. A chance of snow after midnight. Low 23. Wind north-northeast near calm. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a quarter inch. Thursday: Dense overcast. Sleet likely. Cold. High 27. Wind chill around 19. Wind northeast around 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. Thursday night: Dense overcast. A mix of sleet and snow likely in the evening, then a chance of a mix of sleet, snow, and rain after midnight. Low 26, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 26. Wind east-northeast around 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Little or no snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Friday: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of snow, sleet, and rain in the morning, then a slight chance of a mix of snow and rain in the afternoon. High 34. Wind north-northeast around 4 mph in the morning, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. Little or no snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 1 minute ago, ChescoWx said: Wxsim continues the sleet fest - looks like about 3" of sleet/snow on the detailed data Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. A chance of snow after midnight. Low 23. Wind north-northeast near calm. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a quarter inch. Thursday: Dense overcast. Sleet likely. Cold. High 27. Wind chill around 19. Wind northeast around 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. Thursday night: Dense overcast. A mix of sleet and snow likely in the evening, then a chance of a mix of sleet, snow, and rain after midnight. Low 26, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 26. Wind east-northeast around 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Little or no snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Friday: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of snow, sleet, and rain in the morning, then a slight chance of a mix of snow and rain in the afternoon. High 34. Wind north-northeast around 4 mph in the morning, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. Little or no snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Paul, is the wxsim usually pretty good at picking up the sneaky warm layers? That seems like a really low forecast based on the models and usually when you post it, it's on the high end of guidance. Do you think it's a red flag that it's showing mostly sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12z HREF, this model has done really well this year.. pretty much mirrors my thoughts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 17, 2021 Share Posted February 17, 2021 12z IBM GRAF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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