mappy Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Sun finally coming out up north, but I think the best severe will be DC and south. Maybe between Balt/DC too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 23 minutes ago, mappy said: Sun finally coming out up north, but I think the best severe will be DC and south. Maybe between Balt/DC too HRRR pushes some decent stuff up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: HRRR pushes some decent stuff up your way. sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 12z NAM 3k is a bit more frisky than prior runs. Both the NAM and HRRR indicate that there may be a set of cells out in front of the main line, which is pretty common around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 12z NAM 3k is a bit more frisky than prior runs. Both the NAM and HRRR indicate that there may be a set of cells out in front of the main line, which is pretty common around here. Yeah, the signal for this started showing up yesterday, and even the Hi-Res Windows are buying in, although they disagree a bit on location and timing. (The HiResW FV3 initiates the lead cells notably further north.) Seems like several cells will race from south to north out ahead of the more organized line rolling east. Still unclear how much instability will be available: the HRRR is much warmer (but drier), while the NAM Nest is more moist (but cooler). Perhaps there is a temperature/moisture "sweet spot" in there that could increase the potential for some hail and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 1 hour ago, high risk said: Yeah, the signal for this started showing up yesterday, and even the Hi-Res Windows are buying in, although they disagree a bit on location and timing. (The HiResW FV3 initiates the lead cells notably further north.) Seems like several cells will race from south to north out ahead of the more organized line rolling east. Still unclear how much instability will be available: the HRRR is much warmer (but drier), while the NAM Nest is more moist (but cooler). Perhaps there is a temperature/moisture "sweet spot" in there that could increase the potential for some hail and wind. HRRR over-mixing coming into play again? BWI is already 77. Even Westminster is 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: HRRR over-mixing coming into play again? BWI is already 77. Even Westminster is 72. HRRR seems to have a good handle on the environment. It's going for roughly 80/58 by mid-afternoon which seems reasonable. NAM Nest is too cool - it really raises the dew points later this afternoon, and I'm not sure that's going to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, high risk said: HRRR seems to have a good handle on the environment. It's going for roughly 80/58 by mid-afternoon which seems reasonable. NAM Nest is too cool - it really raises the dew points later this afternoon, and I'm not sure that's going to be right. Dewpoints along and east of I-95 are starting to tick into the low 60s. Get that west to US 15 baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 78/58 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 52 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dewpoints along and east of I-95 are starting to tick into the low 60s. Get that west to US 15 baby. Dew points have been lowering at all 3 airports over the past few hours (likely due to mixing), which seems to match what the HRRR has been forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, high risk said: Dew points have been lowering at all 3 airports over the past few hours (likely due to mixing), which seems to match what the HRRR has been forecasting. Yea I noticed. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 woo storms? 77 in Hunt Valley, 74 at home. (I'm at the office today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Radar starting to light up along the I-64 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 75/58 here in Purcellville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 80/60 at DCA. 79.2 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 The storms along I64 started this morning down in North Carolina and have been moving northward steadily since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 21 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said: The storms along I64 started this morning down in North Carolina and have been moving northward steadily since then. Good point, and the HRRR is still struggling to initialize them. The only guidance that explicitly showed this was the ARW2. Some of the other guidance has shown cells developing later this afternoon south of DC and moving north, so I think that these solutions correctly captured the northward-moving forcing mechanism but struggled to initiate storms much earlier and much further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 So will we have a chance at additional storms after this first wave runs northward through the area? Seems like the best shear is coming in behind this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Thunder now in range of my ears to the south. Temp76, DP 66. Bring it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Looks like IAD just gusted to 49kts (56mph). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Classic late October late afternoon thunderstorm at my house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Classic late October late afternoon thunderstorm at my house. yeah.. big boomers in Ellicott City. Its really pretty out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted October 25, 2021 Share Posted October 25, 2021 Just picked up a quick .89". Tapering off now, but it hit the "raining cats and dogs" level on my Vantage VUE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 NWS Baltimore-Washington (@NWS_BaltWash) Tweeted: One of the biggest tidal flood events of the past 10-20 years (possibly since Hurricane Isabel at some locales), is expected Friday & Saturday. Those along tidal shores should get ready for exceptional tidal inundation! Tidal forecasts here: https://t.co/Q2WdpDGgIJ https://t.co/LQkL80pzQs https://twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/1453734194501206024?s=20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Bodhi Cove said: NWS Baltimore-Washington (@NWS_BaltWash) Tweeted: One of the biggest tidal flood events of the past 10-20 years (possibly since Hurricane Isabel at some locales), is expected Friday & Saturday. Those along tidal shores should get ready for exceptional tidal inundation! Tidal forecasts here: https://t.co/Q2WdpDGgIJ https://t.co/LQkL80pzQs https://twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/1453734194501206024?s=20 Awesome! Will be heading down to Fells Point to see if it comes over the banks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 28, 2021 Share Posted October 28, 2021 In addition to the coastal flood threat, areas generally south of DC are in a MRGL risk for damaging convective wind gusts Friday afternoon. Several models are now showing a little bit of sfc-based instability Friday afternoon, which could allow some of the faster wind speeds just above the surface to mix down. I'll note that 1) a few CAMs develop instability even further to the north than currently indicated in the MRGL region implying a more widespread threat but 2) a lot of the stronger wind speeds above the surface will move off to the northeast before the instability develops which implies an overall lesser threat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Take on severe potential from Mount Holly- Severe thunderstorms/tornadoes: Instability will be quite limited. However, even with a marginal instability, a few thunderstorms are possible, primarily in Delmarva. Any thunderstorms in the vicinity of the occluded front will be developing in an area with significant wind shear and helicity. Thus, rotating storms will be possible in this area. The higher threat for this looks to be further south from our region near the front during the period of max mixing, but will have to watch if the front progresses north faster than currently forecast, the risk for rotating storms could develop as far north as northern Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 29, 2021 Share Posted October 29, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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