mattie g Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Latest SPC update shrunk the slight area a bit (mostly the west edge), but much of the area is still in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 16 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 10z and 11z HRRR looked decent. Again, best chances south and east - but looked a little better perhaps for DC proper. But yeah - that 6z NAM nest run was pretty meh. We'll see. Agreed with all of this. While I think that there are several mitigating factors (most notably the potential for subsidence behind the morning wave), I will note that 1) the 6z NAM nest for whatever reason tends to go weak on convection 2) I usually take it as a very positive sign when a morning, elevated MCS somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic is producing lightning. That's a great sign that we have steeper than usual lapse rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 7 minutes ago, high risk said: Agreed with all of this. While I think that there are several mitigating factors (most notably the potential for subsidence behind the morning wave), I will note that 1) the 6z NAM nest for whatever reason tends to go weak on convection 2) I usually take it as a very positive sign when a morning, elevated MCS somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic is producing lightning. That's a great sign that we have steeper than usual lapse rates. I think even my area (just north of DC/Silver Spring in Eastern MoCo may even look okay for right now. I might be right on the edge of the better stuff - but somebody will probably get a cool surprise today. Hail isn't one of the things we normally do well - there's a select few cases in the records of days when hail is an elevated threat even over wind gusts. Going to be an afternoon of radar watching. Have zero desire to drive through hail with my semi new car - but had plans to head to Annapolis this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 12z HRRR is rolling in and it likes Fairfax County and then the Bay and Eastern Shore. Pretty much meh in all other areas. I'm tempted to say the fat lady is singing for places from Loudoun/Frederick, MD and west. Right now I'd probably draw a polygon for best chances running from Baltimore proper WSW back to Gaithersburg, SSW to Fairfax and then perhaps down to EZF and then including everything south and east of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Not sure I'll see much this afternoon, the morning MCS over PA has me mostly cloudy with off/on rain as precip expands south occasionally. But guess we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 12z HRRR is rolling in and it likes Fairfax County and then the Bay and Eastern Shore. Pretty much meh in all other areas. I'm tempted to say the fat lady is singing for places from Loudoun/Frederick, MD and west. Right now I'd probably draw a polygon for best chances running from Baltimore proper WSW back to Gaithersburg, SSW to Fairfax and then perhaps down to EZF and then including everything south and east of that line. I'd generally agree, but a complicating factor is that no guidance has a very good handle right now on the strengthening convection over northeast WV and far western MD. Curious to see whether that has any influence on the evolution today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, high risk said: I'd generally agree, but a complicating factor is that no guidance has a very good handle right now on the strengthening convection over northeast WV and far western MD. Curious to see whether that has any influence on the evolution today. All I'm hearing is "That activity is going to lay down some nice boundaries and we are going full on derecho mode" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 Already some showers in MoCo. Could inhibit instability I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Already some showers in MoCo. Could inhibit instability I guess. Why does this always happen, when we have any where near a decent setup we just fail with clouding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Why does this always happen, when we have any where near a decent setup we just fail with clouding. /Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 19 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Already some showers in MoCo. Could inhibit instability I guess. Those "good" runs earlier this morning had these showers on the north side of DC during the late morning, so I'm not terribly worried. That said, don't look at the 12z NAM Nest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Why does this always happen, when we have any where near a decent setup we just fail with clouding. I KNOW that you just heard that rumble of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RayRoy Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, George BM said: I KNOW that you just heard that rumble of thunder. Is it just me or did that sound like a tree fell on the house? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, RayRoy said: Is it just me or did that sound like a tree fell on the house? Twitter is blowing up talking about it. Best explanation I saw was something about a low-level inversion trapping the sound, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Twitter is blowing up talking about it. Best explanation I saw was something about a low-level inversion trapping the sound, but who knows. Westminster airport is reporting a thunderstorm. Might be sound bobbing off the inversion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 I didn't hear #TheBoom, but it sprinkled here, so forecast verified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I didn't hear #TheBoom, but it sprinkled here, so forecast verified? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Twitter is blowing up talking about it. Best explanation I saw was something about a low-level inversion trapping the sound, but who knows. I heard it here by the Wilson Bridge; just by the sound I knew it was rolling along from somewhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 Clearly it was Thor arriving 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 hope everyone is ok!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Don't want to call bust early, but... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Don't want to call bust early, but... Not even any signs really of development on visible satellite either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Need an EJ meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted September 28, 2021 Author Share Posted September 28, 2021 Just now, H2O said: Need an EJ meh For this event he wont' even meh - he simply won't show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Big nothingburger loaded with mustard! The mustard being that yellow line of slight risk...\ Yes the Mid Atlantic, where the most memorial events happen without warning or expectation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Coverage will be limited, but there should in theory still be a few storms on the front over the next 4-5 hours. And any of those storms that are able to sustain strong updrafts could produce some severe winds or hail. I'm not super excited about this event, but I'm also not ready to say that it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 I just need KSBY to get at least .11-.25 of rain, ideally no more or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 451 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 VAC079-165-282130- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0530.000000T0000Z-210928T2130Z/ Rockingham VA-Greene VA- 451 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM AND GREENE COUNTIES... At 451 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Massanutten, or 11 miles southeast of Harrisonburg, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Massanutten, Stanardsville, Elkton, Ruckersville, Mcmullen, Rocky Bar, Quinque, Lydia, Haneytown, Mission Home, Swift Run, Amicus, Mcgaheysville, Saint George and Shady Grove. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3825 7859 3827 7865 3827 7866 3837 7876 3844 7872 3837 7843 3832 7838 3832 7837 3831 7836 3820 7841 TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 297DEG 21KT 3837 7868 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 28, 2021 Share Posted September 28, 2021 Pathetic as usual....... Went from likely to chance of storms. Reminds me of last winter in a way, when three winter storm warnings here dropped a total of 4 inches of snow. National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 327 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 Latest Mount Holly Update --- NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There`s still a thunderstorm threat into the evening behind this morning`s convection, but most of the CAMs are backing off. Still expecting a gradual moistening and surface heating in cloud breaks ahead of the surface front and MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 range, but areal coverage is waning. PoPs have been adjusted downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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