mappy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, H2O said: Radar looking like doo doo rn. What might come later this afternoon will be the show It might just be me, but was everyone expecting a super active day? I know some of the models had discrete cells rotating through, but I don't think it was ever going to be a widespread severe day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, mappy said: It might just be me, but was everyone expecting a super active day? I know some of the models had discrete cells rotating through, but I don't think it was ever going to be a widespread severe day. And...cells won't look particularly beefy in a setup like this. Even the stuff in PW and Loudoun right now could produce even if reflectivity doesn't look like textbook severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: And...cells won't look particularly beefy in a setup like this. Even the stuff in PW and Loudoun right now could produce even if reflectivity doesn't look like textbook severe. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: Good point. Though at this moment I'd tend to agree with the doo doo assessment. We'll see how things play out for the remainder of the afternoon. I see a warning up in PA now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Latest SPC meso analysis update has a supercell composite of 8 along the I-270 corridor up into Gettysburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fourseasons Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: TDCA has a nice tiny cell just south of Alexandria. I know models yesterday were focusing any 2nd line on the northern parts of the area. Breezy downpour. Nothing else. (All I've gotten today so far are breezy downpours here and there.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, mappy said: It might just be me, but was everyone expecting a super active day? I know some of the models had discrete cells rotating through, but I don't think it was ever going to be a widespread severe day. On the southern end I guess I'm just looking for more signs that the watch here will pan out. Clearly better chances north of the MD/VA line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, H2O said: On the southern end I guess I'm just looking for more signs that the watch here will pan out. Clearly better chances north of the MD/VA line Got it. There is stuff south of you still to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, mappy said: Got it. There is stuff south of you still to come north. I'm trying to deb my way to a discreet line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 16z HRRR buys into the 2nd line later being the dominant one. But it's mainly for I-70 and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: 16z HRRR buys into the 2nd line later being the dominant one. But it's mainly for I-70 and north. I am consistently amazed at how we struggle to get anything interesting in these parts anymore. We just succeed at failure. Remnants come through and it just fizzles out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: I am consistently amazed at how we struggle to get anything interesting in these parts anymore. We just succeed at failure. Remnants come through and it just fizzles out. We are paying back for the flooding rains in parts of the area the past week or so - and all the pulse severe. In all seriousness - maybe we just bought too heavily into this stuff. Big time pocket of clearing behind this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, H2O said: I'm trying to deb my way to a discreet line lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I am consistently amazed at how we struggle to get anything interesting in these parts anymore. We just succeed at failure. Remnants come through and it just fizzles out. I mean, I guess? With the low tracking so far west, our chances of a good severe day were limited anyways. So... is it really that surprising? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 We are banking on that second line. This first line is pure crapvection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 This is sort of what I foresee us watching for later on. Again, best odds north of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 Watch the area near Laurel/Maryland City. There is a hint of something trying there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Watch the area near Laurel/Maryland City. There is a hint of something trying there. I was just looking at the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: I was just looking at the same thing. Watching it on TBWI. It looks like it could be the real thing if it keeps improving. ETA: ARea near Woodstock, MD also now looking interesting on TBWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: Watching it on TBWI. It looks like it could be the real thing if it keeps improving. ETA: ARea near Woodstock, MD also now looking interesting on TBWI. That Woodstock cell looked like it was just starting to try to get going as it went past me but seems to be developing even more now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Watching it on TBWI. It looks like it could be the real thing if it keeps improving. ETA: ARea near Woodstock, MD also now looking interesting on TBWI. That's the best looking cell of the day in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 Both of those cells look "hooky" on TBWI. They look less good on LWX. But they are definitely "mini" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Finally getting my deluge 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Finally getting my deluge I think I see it. Looing west/southwest from my office in downtown Baltimore I am seeing bolts of lightning and what looks like a deluge off your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just had my power flicker on and off twice. No idea why. It's raining hard but nothing else going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 That rotating cell went right past me, but alas, my house is still standing. Edit…just had one thunder clap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Looks like the afternoon activity may be trying to form in the WV Panhandle. Sun's out pretty good in Gaithersburg...definitely has a deep tropical feel to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Looking like some rotation on top of 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That rotating cell went right past me, but alas, my house is still standing. Edit…just had one thunder clap That bolt was of course the one behind my house that as soon as I opened up my deck door to see the deluge — boom! Almost instantaneous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 That cell south and west of Baltimore looks like it’s trying to spin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Literally watching it from the 20th floor of my building. Looks to be pouring about two miles west of where I sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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