Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Sounds like a red box coming per the latest meso. Should be coming up on SPC homepage shortly. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1551.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, mappy said: I know, right? Seems alarmist to me. It's what sells clicks and follows though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Sounds like a red box coming per the latest meso. Should be coming up on SPC homepage shortly. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1551.html And a heavy precip statement also just posted apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: And a heavy precip statement also just posted apparently. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=822&yr=2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: And a heavy precip statement also just posted apparently. I don't like to question the experts on stuff like this, but I'm just not feeling it today. Not as if MBY needs the rain or anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to gradually increase into this afternoon. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 16Z. DISCUSSION...At 1445Z, T.D. Fred is still moving northeastward near the OH/WV border northeast of Parkersburg, WV. A warm front extends east-northeast from the cyclone across southern PA, while a surface confluence axis is noted extending from southwest PA into central VA. Rich low-level moisture will continue to stream northward across PA in conjunction with the warm front this afternoon, with some breaks in the clouds allowing for some modest destabilization from central PA southward into MD/northern VA. Convection will likely increase in coverage with time near/north of the warm front, with more scattered convection possible along/east of the surface confluence axis into MD/northern VA. This afternoon, 0-1 km SRH will likely be maximized over central PA (potentially in excess of 200 m2/s2), though somewhat enhanced SRH will also extend southward into MD/VA where surface winds remain backed to a southeasterly direction. Scattered supercells are likely to evolve with time as convection matures, with an attendant threat of a few tornadoes and isolated/scattered damaging wind gusts. Tornado Watch issuance is likely by 16Z in response to these threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, mattie g said: I don't like to question the experts on stuff like this, but I'm just not feeling it today. Not as if MBY needs the rain or anything... We need to root for NPZ. Dude needs some severe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 The box is going to be justified, but in terms of tornado threat across MD, the earlier arrival of storms may limit that potential a bit, as the best low-level shear won't arrive until later in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 447 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM EDT WED AUG 18 2021 TORNADO WATCH 447 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS VAC013-043-047-059-061-069-099-107-139-153-157-171-179-187-510- 600-610-683-685-840-190000- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0447.210818T1530Z-210819T0000Z/ VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARLINGTON CLARKE CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER FREDERICK KING GEORGE LOUDOUN PAGE PRINCE WILLIAM RAPPAHANNOCK SHENANDOAH STAFFORD WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDRIA FAIRFAX FALLS CHURCH MANASSAS MANASSAS PARK WINCHESTER $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Watch coming out. Until 8:00 pm. Include Kent and Queen Anne's on the eastern shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 First downpour of the day. Tropical out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Radar is meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 This is probably the corridor to watch. One thing to note - we won't be looking for towering supercells today. This type of setup could produce little/brief spinnys even from cells that don't look terrible impressive in terms of base reflectivity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 That corridor is looking better with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: That corridor is looking better with time. Yes. With clearing behind that, there is a window for a 2nd scattered line behind that before everything sweeps through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: That corridor is looking better with time. In place where those storms would move through, after a shower the sun is now peaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I don’t think I ever got a watch here, too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Cell just south of Haymarket putting down some CG now. Looks like it might be trying to get rooted in some of the surface instability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 7 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: I don’t think I ever got a watch here, too far east. the current watch includes Northern VA, almost all of MD and then into PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Cell just south of Haymarket putting down some CG now. Looks like it might be trying to get rooted in some of the surface instability. That's certainly the dominant cell right now. The little cluster north in Loudoun has lost a lot of its punch. This is a pretty classic looking tropical remnants radar depiction for us. There's a lot of junk east of that primary corridor, though - wonder if that may serve to dampen instability a bit. Though - it's not one of those events we need 3K CAPE for. 500-1000 will probably be sufficient. The stuff south of Bowling Green also bears watching as it gets further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 A little too far west here to get in on the good action that is firing up. Sun is coming out and its mega humid... Hoping we get another round later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: That's certainly the dominant cell right now. The little cluster north in Loudoun has lost a lot of its punch. This is a pretty classic looking tropical remnants radar depiction for us. There's a lot of junk east of that primary corridor, though - wonder if that may serve to dampen instability a bit. Though - it's not one of those events we need 3K CAPE for. 500-1000 will probably be sufficient. The stuff south of Bowling Green also bears watching as it gets further north. Under the leading edge of that cell now - getting hail and lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDphotog Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, poolz1 said: A little too far west here to get in on the good action that is firing up. Sun is coming out and its mega humid... Hoping we get another round later this afternoon. Yeah, at least it was a cooler overcast to go with the mega humid. Now we add Aug sun to the mix. Weeeee... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, mattskiva said: Under the leading edge of that cell now - getting hail and lightning Wait... Hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Unbelievable how storms expand JUST past me. You’d think the odds would catch up with me eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Radar looking like doo doo rn. What might come later this afternoon will be the show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Unbelievable how storms expand JUST past me. You’d think the odds would catch up with me eventually. You should call yourself NPZ East 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2021 Author Share Posted August 18, 2021 TDCA has a nice tiny cell just south of Alexandria. I know models yesterday were focusing any 2nd line on the northern parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, George BM said: Wait... Hail? There was a brief period of hail as it moved in (small hail). Lasted only about 3 minutes. Then garden variety thunderstorm, nothing exciting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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