high risk Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Still very intrigued by Wednesday. Still some fail scenarios: best storms stay north in PA, best wind fields are further west, instability is lacking..... but some of the CAM solutions are quite good in terms of discrete cells and show some impressive low-level shear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Another daily short term deluge. 0.6 in 13 minutes and ..75 for entire 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 I am the red and dark red blobs. Bit spooky, would not want this for hour after hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Day 2 MRGL risk for all... 2% tor and 5% wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Morning LWX disco re Fred [Quote] .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The remnants of Fred are forecast to track up the western slope of the Appalachians Wednesday with moderate to heavy rain spreading mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. The axis of heaviest rainfall will be determined by the exact track of Fred and speed as it lifts northward, but with the tropical airmass in place with ample moisture, several inches of rain will be possible with a threat for flooding. Current thinking is the western half of our CWA will favor a greater risk of flooding given the latest forecast track of Fred and the assistance of terrain along the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge Mountains. As with many tropical systems, there will be sufficient wind shear in the atmosphere as it tracks to our west. The threat for any thunderstorms that develop to the east of the track will be capable of turning severe, and perhaps spawn tornadoes. Again, the exact track and evolution of the system will be key is narrowing down this threat over the next 24 hours. The Storm Prediction Center highlights much of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for severe storms Wednesday into Wednesday night, with damaging winds and tornadoes highlighted as the main threats. The remnants of Fred will continue to progress northward toward the Mason Dixon Line and Pennsylvania into Wednesday night, with a continued heavy rainfall and flooding threat across the area. Model guidance progresses Fred to our north by Thursday morning, allowing for decreasing rain chances to emerge in its wake. We`ll remain on the eastern flank of the broad upper trough, so as instability builds Thursday afternoon/evening, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the mountains. [/Quote] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Current take from Mount Holly on potential for severe with Fred- One other item to watch: with our region being in a right-of-track position late Wednesday and Wednesday night, we may have to monitor for the risk of rotating cells and an isolated tornado threat. The SPC SWODY2 has added a Marginal Risk of severe weather for the region. Due to weak dynamic forcing, including the lack of any nearby synoptic frontal systems, this potential looks lower than normal with a tropical system. It also looks like instability will be quite limited. Nonetheless, this will at least be something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Picked another .53” overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 06z NAM NEST sim radar from around 19z WED to around 02z THUR looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 35 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z NAM NEST sim radar from around 19z WED to around 02z THUR looks nice Tomorrow screams surprise severe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 39 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Tomorrow screams surprise severe Is it really a "surprise" when the models show discrete rotating cells 2 days in advance, and SPC puts us in an initial Day 2 MRGL with potential for a later upgrade? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 14 minutes ago, high risk said: Is it really a "surprise" when the models show discrete rotating cells 2 days in advance, and SPC puts us in an initial Day 2 MRGL with potential for a later upgrade? someone will say it came without warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, mappy said: someone will say it came without warning. This. There's always someone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Looks like the warm sector with Fred's remnants is producing. Already two reported tornados and the supercell composite along the GA/SC border is pushing 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Curious to see what SPC does here with the updated day 2 outlook in 20 minutes. I think there is enough in the 12z CAMs today to go with a SLGT (5% TOR) in roughly a Farmville, PA to Williamsport, PA corridor (~80 miles on either side), but I wouldn't be shocked if they want until tomorrow morning to upgrade either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 54 minutes ago, high risk said: Curious to see what SPC does here with the updated day 2 outlook in 20 minutes. I think there is enough in the 12z CAMs today to go with a SLGT (5% TOR) in roughly a Farmville, PA to Williamsport, PA corridor (~80 miles on either side), but I wouldn't be shocked if they want until tomorrow morning to upgrade either. Personally, I'm thinking an Intercourse to Balls Mills line, but that's probably just splitting hairs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 15 minutes ago, high risk said: Curious to see what SPC does here with the updated day 2 outlook in 20 minutes. I think there is enough in the 12z CAMs today to go with a SLGT (5% TOR) in roughly a Farmville, PA to Williamsport, PA corridor (~80 miles on either side), but I wouldn't be shocked if they want until tomorrow morning to upgrade either. They stuck w the MRGL..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, high risk said: They stuck w the MRGL..... The event is still on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 44 minutes ago, mattie g said: Personally, I'm thinking and Intercourse to Balls Mills line, but that's probably just splitting hairs. i laughed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Areas East have some good juice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 NAM, HRRR, RAP all seem to have several discrete cells push through tomorrow during prime heating. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Things are popping to my south on the VA/NC line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 17, 2021 Share Posted August 17, 2021 Yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 17, 2021 Author Share Posted August 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, H2O said: Yawn You're now Eskimo Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: You're now Eskimo Joe. It’s all too far west. Congrats NPZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 9 minutes ago, H2O said: It’s all too far west. Congrats NPZ Inb4 he says a tornado blew all his rain away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Highly doubt the FFW verifies for majority of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Oddly, the 00z NAM nest had better parameters but fewer storms than shown in previous runs. HRRR and HiRes Window ARW still look impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 28 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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